A Changing of the Guard in Stafford, Fredericksburg - A Blue Wave Across the State

Stafford led a Blue wave Tuesday. Strong messaging, old-fashioned door-knocking, and the long coattails of Abigail Spanberger were the difference. Now, Dems must prove they can deliver.

By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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Joshua Cole (back) who won his re-election bid in House District 65 laughs as Maya Guy (forward) celebrates her victory with the crowd who came to celebrate the Democrats taking control of government in Stafford County Tuesday night.

One year ago the ballroom in the Holiday Inn off Route 17 in Stafford was awash in Red as Republicans celebrated a sweep of the presidency, the U.S. House, and the U.S. Senate. The red wave had arrived and looked poised to control national and local politics for a long time to come.

Last night, just one year later, that same room was painted blue as Democrats gathered to celebrate re-taking the mantle of power in Stafford County and across the commonwealth.

“The Democrats had a great night,” said Ben Litchfield, a longtime political player in Stafford County, “It is a clear repudiation of what is going on in Washington. Voters are mad at the dysfunction; they want government to work for them.”

Nowhere in the Diamond region was that repudiation more resounding than in Stafford County, where Democrat-backed candidates took 7 of eight seats between School Board and Board of Supervisors.

The most shocking came when it was announced late on Tuesday that Shannon M. Fingerholz had won her School Board race in Hartwood, a deep red district that historically has gone Republican. “Shannon did everything she needed to do to win focusing on the issues, ignoring the noise coming from Washington,” said Litchfield. “She ran a campaign from the heart; that’s why she won.”

Kecia Evans, who will represent Falmouth on the Stafford Board of Supervisors come January, speaks Tuesday night.

For Maya Guy and Kecia Evans, who will be seated in January on the Board of Supervisors that will now be dominated by Democrats, the wins came as a result of a lot of door-knocking, but also a heart for the people of Stafford.

“We didn’t go low,” said Guy Tuesday night. The opportunities were certainly there, but, she reiterated, “we didn’t go low.

That commitment to fighting the good fight and building a bigger tent was also evident in Evans’ conversation with the Advance.

“I want to be there for all of Falmouth,” Evans told the Advance. “Everyone has a voice, everyone should be included at the table.”

Noting the county’s demographic change, Evans said that “people here in Stafford are looking for change…. They see how the Board currently is, and … with all the frustration … people saw that … and said this is not where Stafford should be. Stafford is rich, Stafford has so much going for it.”

The School Board, which faces challenges around funding and facilities, also will be firmly in the hands of Democratic backed candidates for the next two years at least.

Their gaining control owes some to the Stafford Republican Committee, which is at war with itself. MAGA Republicans are pushing out more-traditional Republicans, and their internal spat may have cost the Republicans the Garrisonville School Board seat.

Maureen Siegmund, the respected chair of the Board, was denied the party’s endorsement in favor of a MAGA Republican. Siegmund stayed in the race, splitting the vote with MAGA Republican Stephanie Mojica and giving Wanda Blackwell, the Democratic supported candidate, a clear glide path to the seat.

Stafford Democratic Committee Chair Howard Rudat discusses the Dream Team that turned Stafford blue on Tuesday night.

For Howard Rudat, the Democratic Committee chair in Stafford, the difference Tuesday night was “the quality of the candidates. … Every one of them brought quality, charisma, dedication, and a love of each other. Every time they went out the door, they were a team. It was one team with one vision for a better Stafford, a better Virginia.”

Further, he noted, the Democratic candidates in Stafford and across the state ran their races on the facts, and “not nitpicking … calling out previous transgressions that candidates at any level may of had, and focusing on what they were going to do as opposed to what others did not do.”

For Joshua Cole, who was re-elected to House District 65, Tuesday night marked a significant turn not only in Stafford, but in Virginia as a whole.

“I’ve been praying for partners,” he told the crowd. “Tonight we got partners.”

One of those partners is Stacie Annie Carroll, who raised well over $800,000 in her victory over incumbent Paul Milde for the House District 64 seat.

Rudat sees in Carroll a woman who connects with people on a number of levels — as a mom, as an auditor, and as a veteran.

Carroll challenged those who put her into office Tuesday night to hold her to account. “I challenge you to audit me,” she told the crowd.

Stacy Carroll, who won HD 64, brings the energy she brought to the campaign trail to Tuesday night’s watch party.

The Old Guard Falls

Turning the city blue was not the question in Fredericksburg Tuesday night. Rather, it was what type of leaders will the city embrace to take it into the next several years.

On one side was the Old Guard, represented by Matt Kelly and Anne Little, both longtime political players in the Fredericksburg region. On the other was the New Guard, represented by Joy Crump and Susanna Finn.

Running on a platform that argued City Council wasn’t sufficiently transparent and that growth threatened to harm the city, the Old Guard couldn’t muster enough supporters to carry them across the line.

Instead, voters went for Crump and Finn, two people who represent the city’s future, and who well understand the challenges that younger families trying to make their way in the city are facing.

Their election, however, doesn’t fundamentally alter the philosophy of the current City Council, which voters showed they support by backing Crump and Finn.

The real change that awaits is with the School Board.

Two new faces will be at the dais come January. One, Annie Langdon, is a former longtime teacher in the system and committed to restoring the school system to a position of respectability.

Langdon won easily over Sarah Stelmok with more than 62% of the vote in a race that at times turned bitter.

“I’m happy to see that the voters of Ward 3 didn’t fall for any of the nasty tactics that were on display for the duration of this campaign,” she told the Advance. “When it really counted, honesty, authenticity, and integrity prevailed and it was a great day not only for myself, but my friends Joy and Susanna as well. Kindness always wins, and now it’s time to get to work.”

An abundance of work awaits Langdon and new Board member Andrew Wolfenbarger who won Ward 1 in an uncontested race.

The Board’s travel habits drew unwanted attention over the summer, and during a forum for school board candidates hosted by the Advance, the leadership of the school system also came into question.

New blood and a commitment to righting the ship promises to make the year ahead an interesting one in Fredericksburg.

Spotsy Could Be Next

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the night was Nicole Cole beating incumbent Bobby Orrock for the House District 66 race. Orrock, the longest-serving member of the General Assembly, will turn over his seat to Cole who will be making her first appearance in Richmond having formerly served on the Spotsylvania County School Board.

“For 35 years,” Cole told the Advance, “this district went without real representation, but tonight voters stood up for leadership that puts people first - stronger public schools, affordable healthcare, and protecting women’s rights.”

By any measure Cole’s victory is a surprise. But throughout this campaign Cole has done the work to earn the seat, outraising Orrock and putting in the legwork that is needed to win this kind of campaign.

Cole’s victory means that of the five House seats in the Diamond, four are now in the hands of Democrats. Only incumbent Phil Scott running against Forrest Miller in HD 63 was able to hold a seat in this area for the Republicans. Scott won by a comfortable 13 points, but that was six points less than what he was projected to win by. A mark of how strong the Democrats showing was Tuesday night.

Elsewhere in Spotsylvania, many questions about the future governance of the county remain.

In the Board of Supervisors races, Republican Lori Hayes comfortably held on to her seat, while as of 1 a.m. Wednesday morning, incumbent Republican Chris Yakabouski was locked in a near dead-heat with Baron Braswell, who trails Yak by just 24 votes.

The shocker came in the Berkeley District, where Kevin Marshall lost his seat to David Goosman.

Marshall has led the charge on the Board for the Kalahari project and the data centers that are coming into the area. A battle on the board over how to approve data center projects has erupted in recent months, however, with Goosman siding with Hays and Yakabouski, arguing that data centers should all go through the special use permit process. Marshall, by contract, favored standards over SUPs.

Depending how the race between Braswell and Yak gets decided could influence data center development in the county.

“I enjoyed my time and will continue to support the members of the community that supported me,” Marshall told the Advance Tuesday via text message. “Over 55 years my family has served the community. We ain’t going nowhere.”

On the School Board, there will be three new faces. Rich Lieberman, Jennifer Craig-Ford, and Lawrence DiBella III.

Their arrival is not likely to do much to change the direction of the Board, but could alter the dynamics of a Board that has gone through hard times and has just this past year begun to find its footing.

This Board will be one to watch early in 2026.

Trifecta

The national story in Virginia is that Abigail Spanberger ran away with the governor’s race on Tuesday night, besting Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, who was seeking a promotion, by more than 15 percentage points.

To put that in perspective, there hasn’t been a margin that wide in a Virginia gubernatorial election since 1961, when Albertis Harrison won with 63% of the vote.

In an age when politicians talk about “mandates” following 3-point victories, Spanberger can honestly use the term.

Not only does she enjoy an historic margin of victory, she will come into office with 64 out of 100 of the House of Delegates members being Democrats, a slim majority in the Senate (21-19), and will have a Democrat in the Attorney General’s seat.

Democrats, for better or worse, will own the next two years.

The question now, will they be able to capitalize?

Headwinds coming out of Washington are very real. Tariffs. The federal shutdown. Stripping federal dollars from public education and Medicaid. The redistricting battle. And a coming Congressional election next year that is sure to be bloody.

Yes, Spanberger and the Democrats have a mandate from the voters to improve their bottom lines, to improve the job market, to improve health care access, and to grow the economy. It will take a great deal of imagination, skill, and innovation to deliver all of this.

As ever, it’ll be interesting.

For now, let the Democrats party. Tuesday was an historic night. And they can bask in solidly turning the state blue.

But buckle up. Come January 17 when Spanberger is inaugurated, the real work begins.

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