ANALYSIS: Economic Malaise
The Weldon Cooper Center economic forecast doesn't bear good tidings. The federal cuts are deeply affecting Northern Virginia, and as NOVA goes, so goes the commonwealth.
By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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The Weldon Cooper Center’s quarterly economic forecast for Virginia is out, and its takeaway can be summed up in one word: M-A-L-A-I-S-E.
The most obvious place this shows up is in the employment numbers.
Comparing Virginia’s employment growth to the nation’s, the commonwealth was in positive territory for Q1 and Q2 2025 but was well below the national average. (See chart above.)
Weldon Cooper is projecting, however, that employment growth will turn negative in Q3 2025 and not rebound into positive territory until Q3 2026. For the year 2025, the center is now projecting that Virginia will lose 11,700 jobs.
Not only is Virginia expected to lose jobs in 2025. The commonwealth is also beginning to realize a decline in the labor force.
The center attributes this decline to several factors, including: “an acceleration in retirements, outmigration, or a broader decline in labor force participation.”
The “outmigration” is more than simply families choosing to leave Virginia for greener pastures. The rise in immigration arrests is also likely having an impact on the labor force. A June 2025 article in the New York Times that tracked the arrests of undocumented people by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) found the number up in every state since Trump’s inauguration. At the time, more than 2,860 people in Virginia had been captured by ICE.
That situation has gotten much worse. As the Richmond Times-Dispatch reported on Wednesday, “ICE made 4179 arrests in Virginia by late July. Most detainees lacked criminal records.”
‘When Northern Virginia Sneezes …’
Two of the most significant downward trends in employment are with government employment, as well as professional, scientific, and technical services.
By the end of the year, the center projects the commonwealth will lose 9,300 government jobs. And in the professional, scientific, and technical services area the number is projected to be 9,500.
The loss in the latter sector, which is vulnerable to reductions in federal contracting, is particularly troubling.
“This sector has been a key contributor to Virginia’s economic performance, representing 11.2% of total employment as of January 2025,” the report noted. “This amounts to a projected 2.0% decline in employment for the sector in 2025.”
Speaking with the Advance by phone, Fredericksburg Regional Alliance President Curry Roberts explained why the federal cuts are so devastating to the state’s economy as a whole.
“Forty percent of the state’s economy is north of us,” Roberts said, “so if they sneeze, the state gets a cold.”
Still, there are some positive things to point to in the state’s future.
The health care sector is expected to grow 2.4% by year’s end, “a growth rate that exceeds the sector’s average over the past decade,” according to the report.
The construction sector is also doing well.
“In relative terms,” the report said, “construction led all industries during the first half of the year, contributing over 8,000 new jobs…. [and] construction is projected to achieve the strongest relative performance across all sectors in 2025, with an annual increase of 3.7%.”
The president of the Fredericksburg Area Builders Association, Jeh Hicks, told the Advance that “data center construction and growth are driving the construction industry in Virginia.” He also mentioned Kalahari in Spotsylvania, where he estimates roughly 500 workers are on-site.
Roberts also pointed out the ongoing work on the Lego project in Chesterfield, and the new Lego distribution center in Prince George, Virginia, as factors driving construction jobs.
Summing It Up
Taken as a whole, the economy in Virginia is projected to grow by 0.9% through December of this year. According to the Weldon Cooper Center, this number “underscores the Commonwealth’s position as a slow-growing economy.”
This relatively low number also “reflects Virginia’s close ties to the federal government, with anticipated cuts in federal employment and spending beginning to weigh on activity across multiple sectors, though later than previously expected,” according to the center.
For glass-half-full people, this overall number is still positive. The center, however, is correct to warn that while the overall economy is still in the black, the slow growth “signals a broader trend of stagnation, as the state moves forward without the strength seen in previous years.”
What to Watch
The center concedes that “Economic forecasts are inherently sensitive to changes in national and state-level policies, which can have unpredictable consequences on business conditions, public budgets, and labor markets.”
This is especially true under the current presidential administration, with shifting tariff policies, increasing deportations, and an unstable global market owing to re-alignments as the U.S. recedes from the global stage, and China, in particular, moves to fill the void.
The next report from Weldon Cooper comes in October and will be closely watched to see if the job losses play out as projected. Whether they do depends in large measure on:
How aggressively the government moves on further reducing employees
How much the administration claws back from scientific research
How successful the administration is in negotiating new tariffs that don’t undercut Virginia’s overall economy
And how much worse the deportation situation becomes.
While the report does not say this, the indicators are clear. This is Donald Trump’s economy. Expect it to play a major role in November’s election.
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Nope, nope, nope.
This is not DJT's economy.
This is the Republican Party's economy.
By abdicating their responsibilities at every level, from citizen to Congressperson, they own it.
They knew what they were getting.
They had 10 years to see DJT in action, they even published a book detailing how they would destroy the civil liberties, Constitution, and laws of this country. Which they've followed to the letter and without dissent.
This was not some unforeseen disaster.
Let's quit pretending otherwise.
18.2-31 of the Code of Virginia states that someone who hires a murderer to kill is guilty of that felony and can be punished accordingly.
Why are we not holding Republicans accountable for killing our honor, finances, rules of law, and Constitution?
Do those things no longer matter to us? Did they ever, or was that just lip service we gave, without really meaning it? If they do, we might want to start defending them. Loudly, strongly.
I note that most of the construction projects you mention are either to benefit billionaire companies like Amazon and Google, or were started before this current reign of terror, ignorance, and incompetence.
Hardly things that will help the housing crisis in the area, though I guess if enough people leave, lose their jobs, or are deported - then that problem will work itself out. Though not how we'd like.
Yes, the 3rd quarter will be where we begin to more clearly see the economic effects of arbitrary taxes/tariffs which are just now being implemented.
Though supply chain disruptions have already occurred due to their threat. Most economists and business leaders already anticipate a recession. Get ready, it's coming.
Of course, how can you trust the numbers for the 3rd quarter, since Republicans fired the last person to tell them employment was falling, and the replacement has promised to withhold the reports until he can review them?
Hardly inspires confidence or trust.
I suspect you'll more likely see it in your own finances, from the costs of goods, difficulty finding employees, scarcity of materials long before you hear Republicans admit it.
The one thing the party of fraudulent felons can be counted on to provide is self-serving lies.
For everyday builders however, how can they or developers start a project if they cannot count on their funding if it has anything to do with government?
Their plans if it has anything to do with data?
Their workforce when they know (though no one admits) it is dependent upon undocumented workers?
Or their materials - when its cost or presence capriciously changes daily?
Many of these people are betting their entire fortunes on these projects.
Would you do so in such uncertainty?
I wouldn't. I'd keep my money in my pocket if I could and ride it out. Or, like you said, invest it in healthcare since everyone is getting older.
Meanwhile, Republicans not only are openly engaged in new and novel means of gerrymandering and voter suppression; they are opening up prisons in Uganda, occupying our nation's Capitol with the military and secret police without oversight. Unaccountable to anyone.
Just yesterday, the Vice President himself promised to do more of the same in other cities. Stating the only people who would object to that are 90 year old communists.
Is that the only people who would object to living in a complete police state? I'm not so sure.
How about you? Is that what your son signed up for, Martin? The opportunity to aim machine guns at people like me? Where will you be when that happens? Which side?
I fear you, and many others, may soon have to decide. Though I join you in wishing it weren't so, I'll not let my wishes cloud my observations. Again, they are openly stating their intent, and have shown clear willingness to follow up on those intentions. Why not take them at their word on such things?
As they proudly drive the homeless and mentally ill from pillar to post. You know, what Jesus would do, because they are so Godly....
Anecdotally, I've had 4 top end construction supervisors of multi-million dollar projects in the last 3 months come up to me to see if I knew of any openings, as their current projects closed out, and their companies had no new work lined up.
Sadly, I did not, and I suspect it will get worse before it gets better.
Personally, where a year ago I was turning down work, now I'm at 75% capacity and anticipate being at 50% by the years end unless I develop new projects. Which I'm working on, but we'll see.
Regardless, I'll be better off than most, in that I also have a defined benefit pension, am old enough to take SS if it doesn't work out, and specifically have maintained a low overhead business model that allows me to ride out fluctuations - but I pity those trying to run a business who do not have such resources.
Uncertainty is the bane of honest business. As is corruption, lawlessness, fear.
If any of those things give you pause, you need to hold Republicans accountable while you still can. Because they are certainly not doing it themselves.
With the loss of inspectors generals, gutting of consumer and environmental protections, and the military take over of our cities; we have entered a rollback of civil liberties and protections never before seen in our country - though over 70% of the world now lives under totalitarian regimes.
We are close to joining them. In many ways, we already have. Though I never thought we would.
If you're not willing to stand up against that now, then when?
If not for this, then what?
The other day, a passionate young man wrote on here: "This far, and no farther."
I share the sentiment. We need to hold Republicans to account. We need to insist they hold themselves to account.
This is their doing. Let's quit pretending otherwise. I would hope some of them would gather the courage to stand with us, but regardless of if I or we stand alone, I stand for these things.
Rule of law, honesty, integrity, non-violence, Constitutionality, kindness, science, honest capitalism. The things that both parties, and we as a nation used to all believe. But one is now trying actively to destroy. We are no longer two parts of the same bird.
The Preamble to the Constitution states the following:
"We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."
They've broken the faith inherent in that document, we need to quit pretending otherwise.
I'm not sure that we'll ever be able to fix the damages they've caused to our values or people.
But I do know from my paramedic days that the first thing you do for someone on fire is to stop the burn. This Republican systemic destruction of our nation needs to stop.
As important as money is to life, there are other things more important. We would do well to remember that.
But know that it is not one man doing this, it is a people. Let's at least admit that. Then both they and we can go from there. We've got some hard choices to make, and they are not just economic nor local.
The world does not end at the Stafford County line.