ANALYSIS: Failing Our Children Before Kindergarten Even Begins
The data is clear - an early start is essential to academic success. What the numbers have to say about our efforts on this front.
By Janet Gullickson
‘THOUGHTS’ COLUMNIST
Editor’s Note: The Advance is pleased to welcome Dr. Janet Gullickson, recently retired president of Germanna Community College, as a columnist.
Early gaps, lasting consequences
Nearly half of young children in five Virginia school divisions live in poverty, yet fewer than 1 in 5 have access to publicly funded early education.
Kindergarten isn’t a fresh start. Many children enter school without basic literacy or social-emotional skills—falling behind before they’ve begun.
Third grade is a tipping point. Students not reading proficiently by grade 3 are four times less likely to graduate from high school. Virginia’s scores are sliding, not recovering.
Funding ≠ outcomes. Despite a $7 billion investment boost since the pandemic, Virginia ranks near the bottom in reading and math recovery. Achievement gaps persist.
We support broken bones better than broken systems. What’s missing for kids: coordinated care, expert support, and belief in their potential.
Introduction
On my mantle are three pieces of pottery made by art students and professors at a Washington community college where I served as president before moving to Virginia in 2017. Every spring, the department sold art “rejects” as a student fundraiser. These rebuffed pieces didn’t meet their creators’ expectations with their flawed results. Students and nonstudents would rush to the sale, hoping to snatch the appealing works of budding or seasoned artists. I displayed them in my offices for the last 10+ years and now in my home to remind me that rebuffed rejects are as worthy and beautiful as the highly treasured. And, these flawed creations, indeed, others may esteem above any expectations once held for them.
Other than confrontational individuals or acts, is there anything more easily rebuffed and rejected by others than public K-12 education?
The Pew Research Center reported last year:
About half of U.S. adults (51%) say the country’s public K-12 education system is generally going in the wrong direction. A far smaller share (16%) say it’s going in the right direction, and about a third (32%) are not sure…. (About half of Americans say public K-12 education is going in the wrong direction | Pew Research Center, April 2024).
Among the respondents’ concerns were that schools weren’t spending enough time on core, academic subjects like math, English, science and social studies; school budget woes; and overall achievement declines.
Enough time, money, achievement compared to what?
Time on Task. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OCED) compares nations across the world in a variety of business and social areas including education (The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development | OECD). In 2023, OCED published data indicating that the USA was toward the top in terms of time devoted to reading, writing, literature and math. In primary grades (generally until grade 7), only Costa Rica, Denmark and Australia spent more time than did the United States on these subjects. (https://doi.org/10.1787/e13bef63-en, September 2023).
Money Allocated. For a moment, let’s define the school budget woes notion as funding to public schools. Under Governor Glenn Youngkin, investments in per student funding have increased by 53%, totaling about $7 billion since the pandemic. (March- FOR THE RECORD: Governor Youngkin Increases Education Funding by Nearly Half-a-Billion in “Strong- Dynamic-Winning-Together” Budget | Governor.Virginia.gov, April 2025).
Achievement. Most recently Virginia ranked 41st in Reading Recovery between 2019 and 2024 and 51st in Math Recovery between 2019 and 2024. (Virginia - Education Recovery Scorecard, February 2025). All area school divisions saw grades 3-8 decline in reading grade level achievement between 2019 and 2024, falling behind from 0.92 grade level to 1.33 grade levels below current grade level achievement. Overall, Virginia reading levels fell by a 0.72 grade level with nearly all the state’s school divisions experiencing declines.
Let’s take a minute and “bench test” the notion of academic declines over time. In 2020, national test scores for nine-year-old students were statistically significantly higher in reading and math than in the early 1970’s (NAEP Long-Term Trends: Home). However, both state and federal test results from 2023 found math and reading scores among America’s 13-year-olds had fallen to their lowest levels in decades. (Test scores show American students slipping further behind despite recovery efforts | AP News, July 2023).
One more interesting set of measures worthy of consideration when muddled in school daze: how ready are children to enter kindergarten and how many students in schools pass grade 3 English. (RR ECCE Dashboard Data Resources - Virginia Early Childhood Foundation). As you might expect, students entering kindergarten are not all ready to learn at that level.
Readiness. In Virginia, the skills considered essential to enter kindergarten successfully include readiness in literacy (e.g., knowing letters, rhyming and vocabulary words); math (e.g., knowing numbers, shapes and patterns); self-regulation (e.g., managing emotions and behaviors and listening); and social skills (e.g., cooperating, resolving conflict in a positive way). Across Virginia, readiness is determined through the Virginia Kindergarten Readiness Program. All kindergarteners are assessed in the fall and spring for readiness in these four skill groups. (VKRP_FAQs_2022-08-01.pdf).
The data from this program provide some eyebrow-raising information about whether Virginia children are ready for kindergarten. Additionally, research using third grade reading success as a predictor for later academic success finds that students not reading as expected by the end of third grade are four times less likely to graduate from high school. (https://parcalabama.org/major-gains-on-reading-scores-more-3rd-graders-readingsufficiently/#:~:text=Starting%20in%20fourth%20grade%2C%20students,the%20wake%20of%20the%20pandemic, June 2024.)
In the five school divisions referenced here, there were 23,424 children in 2023 under five years of age (considered early childhood) and 48% of them (13,865 children) lived in households at or below 200% of the federal poverty level ($64,000 for a family of four in 2025) or 85% of Virginia’s State Medium Income (SMI) or $77,300, more than 11,000 early childhood children. The SMI for Virginia in 2025 is $90,974 (https://hdpulse.nimhd.nih.gov).
In these school regions, there are 2,605 slots in publicly funded early childhood education receiving state or federal funds for eligible children (those in families with incomes less than or equal to 85% of the state median income). Consequently, less than 20% (slots divided by 13,865 children) of income-eligible children may attend early childhood education in this region. (https://vecf.org/supply-and-demand-data/, April 2025).
Another couple of data points are worth noting. According to available data (and anyone with children in child care), the annual costs for child-care center or home-based early childhood education in this region runs from $13,000 to $16,380. Secondly, the labor force participation rate of 20- to 64-year-old women with children under six years of age in this region is 65%. Finally, 64% of the total number of preschool children live in households where all parents are in the workforce.
Here's what I am thinking about
I broke almost every bone in my foot a few years ago, allowing a very skilled orthopedic surgeon at the University of Virginia to re-engineer it with a cadaver bone, plate and screws. Following the surgery, I was in physical therapy for weeks and I hobbled around under the expert care of my husband. The break happened during COVID. Expectations for me to be mobile were very low. Still now, I walk more slowly; am mindful of my balance as I recoil when anyone steps too close; and wear expensive sneakers to walk any distance at all.
Think of all the interventions and resources invested in me so I could master walking again:
Ready care from a highly compensated and educated surgeon.
24/7 care from my husband (even on the days he really didn’t want to).
Adaptive devices like a scooter, ramp, new handles to balance in the bathroom, and a walking cast so I could reach more normal functioning.
Disability coverage so I didn’t have to worry about my paycheck.
Pain medication.
Calls checking on me from health care providers.
A physical therapist and assistant who pushed me to reach the next level of walking mastery.
The best care packages and pick-me-ups from family and friends.
Now let’s put another character and scenario in my place: a late birthday four-year-old boy who doesn’t demonstrate the developmental mastery needed to enter kindergarten (like when I fell off the ramp Bobby built rather than smoothly descending). Perhaps he is one of the 25% of children who enter kindergarten nationally without ever holding a picture book (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30908424/, June 2019).
His working parent attempted to get him into the one Head Start program in his county but there were no openings and there is only so much time for him to take from work to pursue other options. The child’s cousin got into Head Start in another county but some of her learning time was reallocated to volunteer dental professionals, pulling her rotted baby teeth so that her permanent teeth would have a chance. Most importantly, his father, preschool screener and family know that not starting kindergarten would be the worst possible outcome for our four-year-old because another year without the attention of professionals likely would not result in kindergarten readiness.
No one blamed me for breaking my foot (other than me, of course). If I lose balance on a walk, no one will blame Bobby or my surgeon. Everyone in my family rejoiced that I was able to reach walking mastery.
So, what will happen to our four-year-old? Who will be blamed? What experts and supports exist for him?
What went wrong and what could go right for our dear child? And what’s it got to do with me anyway?
More on this in the future.
Dr. Janet Gullickson is a recently retired Virginia community college president who started her professional work in education in 1976 (she’s been around the block a few times). She writes “Thoughts” with an education focus for the FXBG Advance.
School Daze Notes & References
Pew Research Center
“About half of Americans say public K-12 education is going in the wrong direction.” Pew Research Center, April 2024. Read more
OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)
Education at a Glance 2023: Time Spent on Core Subjects. September 2023. Read more
Governor of Virginia’s Office
For the Record: Governor Youngkin Increases Education Funding by Nearly Half-a-Billion in ‘Strong–Dynamic–Winning–Together’ Budget. Governor.Virginia.gov, April 2025. Read more
Education Recovery Scorecard
Virginia – Reading and Math Recovery Data 2019–2024. February 2025. Read more
National Center for Education Statistics (NCES)
NAEP Long-Term Trends: Home. Read more
Associated Press (AP News)
Test scores show American students slipping further behind despite recovery efforts. AP News, July 2023. Read more
Virginia Early Childhood Foundation
RR ECCE Dashboard Data Resources. Read more
Virginia Kindergarten Readiness Program (VKRP)
VKRP FAQs. August 1, 2022. Read more
Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama (PARCA)
Major Gains on Reading Scores: More 3rd Graders Reading Sufficiently. June 2024. Read more
NIMHD (National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities)
HD Pulse – Population Data & Social Determinants of Health Tools. Read more
National Library of Medicine (PubMed)
Early Literacy Exposure and School Readiness. June 2019. Read more
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