ANALYSIS: Sears, Spanberger Deadlocked in First Poll
Glenn Youngkin never figured out how to turn positive favorability ratings into winning coalitions. The coming governor's race will come down to who can do what the current governor could not.
By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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Gov. Glenn Youngkin will ride off into the sunset this year leaving a perplexing legacy. While he routinely received favorability ratings above 50% — no small task in the polarized era we live in — he struggled to turn favorability into real legislative success.
On issues that require coalition building to effect change — abortion, charter schools, and tax reform, for example — Youngkin has little to show for his efforts. When he tried to bring the Wizards and Capitals to a new arena in Northern Virginia — a feat that can be mustered by using the bully pulpit — he failed.
The sweater vest may have made voters feel good about Youngkin on Election Day and when pollsters called, but when the sweater came off and it was time to get to work, Youngkin’s unyielding policy positions found him few friends in Richmond. And fewer friends during the mid-term elections in November 2022, when despite his favorability ratings, he lost the House and the Senate.
Both Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger and Republican candidate Winsome Sears, who is currently serving as Lt. Governor, would do well to reflect on this as they put their campaigns into high gear for November.
Dead Heat; Votes to Be Had
That’s our reading of the first major poll of the year from Emerson College Polling on the Virginia governor’s race, which gathered responses from 1,000 registered voters in the commonwealth and has a margin of error of +/- 3.
When survey takers were asked “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of … Glenn Youngkin,” the topline results showed Youngkin with just under 50% saying they had a “very” or “somewhat” favorable opinion of the governor.
Broken out by party affiliation, however, Youngkin’s inability to connect with those outside his tribe is clear. Of those expressing a very favorable opinion of the governor, just 9% were Democrats and nearly 70% were Republicans.
Those splits were reflected when voters were asked about President Joe Biden, and President-elect Donald Trump.
Asked their opinion of Sears and Spanberger, voters were even more fractured. Of those expressing a very favorable opinion of Sears, nearly 75% were Republicans. Of those expressing a very favorable opinion of Spanberger, just over 75% were Democrats.
In short, both candidates have a firm grip on their parties.
And this goes a long way toward explaining why the two are in a dead heat at the moment, with 42% of those polled saying they support Spanberger, and 41% saying they back Sears.
Notably, 13% of those polled are undecided. And a surprisingly high percentage of those polled do not know the candidates. More than 16% of those polled said they’d never heard of Spanberger; more than 18% had never heard of Sears.
Of those who said they didn’t know the candidates, fully a third in each case consider themselves independents.
If this poll is accurately reflecting voters in the state, these are the voters Sears and Spanberger will need to win over to capture the Governor’s Mansion in November.
The Issues That Matter
At this early stage, these numbers shouldn’t surprise too much. The campaigns are barely off the ground, and voters don’t typically start paying close attention until the fall.
But they are paying attention to issues right now, and the most interesting data from this poll is what these voters say they are most concerned about.
Among those surveyed, two areas of concern were prominent: 38.3% said the economy (inflation, taxes, and jobs) and 13.7% said affordable housing. No other issue reaches double-digits.
Neither candidate will walk away from the issues that most concern their respective bases. According to the poll, for Democrats its abortion, threats to democracy, and healthcare; for Republicans its immigration.
What will be interesting to watch in these early days is if either leans into substantive ideas for addressing the economy and the shortage of affordable housing.
The winning candidate is likely to be the one that can cobble together a coalition among those who are independents, and those who are deeply concerned about the high costs of simply putting a roof over one’s head and surviving.
And if the winner can do that, and carry it forward as governor, they will be well-positioned to do what the current governor never could.
Turn popularity into policy victories that support all Virginians.
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