ANALYSIS: State of the Commonwealth 2026 Poll Shows Surprising Agreements, Predictable Splits along Party Lines
The new Wason Center poll shows a number of issues people across the political spectrum in Virginia agree on, giving Democrats a window to tackle some challenging practical problems.
By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
Email Martin
The narrative that we live in a polarized nation where Democrats and Republicans agree on very little has become an entrenched mantra. The reality, however, is far more complex, and the new poll from the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University — State of the Commonwealth 2026 — provides some insights into where Republicans and Democrats are finding common ground.
Nota Bene: See the end of this article for a description of how the poll was put together and how much confidence there is in the numbers.
Where Democrats and Republicans Are Finding Common Ground
Problems Facing the Commonwealth
Whether looked at through the lens of political parties, gender, race, or education level, Virginians are fully in agreement that inflation and the cost of living are the most pressing issues they face.
Presented with a list of ten issues, roughly a third of respondents in each category named inflation and the cost of living as critical issues.
Political extremism was the second-most mentioned concern, and even here, there is significant agreement among subgroups about this issue. Considering all groups, 22% named extremism as a concern. On the low end were Republicans, with just 10% naming this as a top concern; on the high end were Democrats with 31% naming this issue—a significant, but not yawning, gap. Most other groups were in the low- to mid-20% range.
Interestingly, the state of K-12 education, which was such a hot-button issue during Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s term, is not capturing the attention of people today. Ten percent of all subgroups named K-12 education as a concern, with no subgroup recording below 9% or above 11%.
Restoration of Voting Rights
While Republican voters are less-enthusiastic than Democrats about restoring voting rights for felons who have served their sentences, there is a surprising level of agreement across the board that this is a good idea. Majorities of all subgroups, sans Republicans, favor this measure. Among Republicans, 36% favor the measure.
Data Centers
There is substantial agreement across party lines for restrictions on data center growth and development in Virginia. The poll asked four questions related to data center development, and in each case there was strong support regardless of political party or region of the state.
Right to Work
There is a surprising level of agreement about right to work laws, too. While 73% of Republicans polled said they would like to keep these laws on the books as they are (62% of independents and 44% of Democrats share that feeling), there is a slim majority of support across the political parties to alter right-to-work laws so that unions would not be required to represent nonunion people in work disputes.
Things to Watch
The poll also questioned people around proposed constitutional amendments. Two of these (reproductive rights and redistricting) show the political party splits one would expect. The numbers also suggest, however, that November’s election results showing a significant shift in Virginia toward voters expressing views that are more left of center was no fluke.
Reproductive Rights
Independents (66%), Democrats (91%), and women voters (74%) overwhelmingly support or strongly support changing the state constitution in order to protect reproductive rights.
Republicans by a slight majority (56%) oppose or strongly oppose such a right, but a surprisingly significant number would support protecting reproductive rights (33%). Right now, it looks as if this would carry the day easily in a popular vote.
Redistricting
When asked if they support or strongly support the way the state currently handles redistricting, Republicans (68%), Independents (61%), and Democrats (61%) tend to say yes.
When asked if they would support allowing redrawing mid-cycle, the response was more tepid. Republicans (61%) overwhelmingly reject the idea while Democrats (63%) overwhelmingly embrace it. Independents (51%) are about evenly split. Bottom line? It’s a toss-up.
What It All Means
The idea that we are hopelessly polarized seems true mostly when we talk in generalities. Consider how respondents answered vaguely worded questions such as whether the state and the nation are on the “right track.”
Republicans — who hold the White House — feel good about where the country is headed, with the majority saying it’s on the right track. Democrats, by comparison, completely disagree.
Things flip when one asks about the state. Republicans, with a Democratic governor, are none too enthusiastic about the future. Democrats, who hold majorities in all three branches of government, are unsurprisingly optimistic about the future.
People naturally feel better about the “direction” the nation or state are headed if their party is in power. It’s an aspirational question, untethered from hard realities on the ground.
But when one gets to brass tack issues — affordability, reproductive rights, data centers—people think less aspirational and more practical. How do they believe a particular law will affect them?
For the new governor, and for the Democratic majority in House of Delegates, this is what they must not lose sight of.
Staying close to practical issues, crafting legislation that directly addresses those concerns, and measuring to make sure the legislation is working, is what voters care most about — regardless of who is in office.
If the Dems can’t deliver on affordability, the pendulum is likely to swing back again in two years when all House seats are again up for grabs.
If Democrats need a reminder as to how quickly things can change, remember that just over a year ago, Republicans were confident they would hold power for years to come, with uni-party control of all three branches of the national government.
Were national elections held today, a lot of Republican representatives — as well as the president, in all likelihood — would be looking for post-political careers.
Bottom line — focus on fixing problems. It got Dems into power. Whether they stay there hinges on delivering on those promises and not pushing too hard on the issues where citizens are more-sharply divided.
About the Poll
Any poll must be treated with caution. It captures one moment in time, and a range of factors can affect those numbers.
For this reason, pollsters talk about “margin of error” and level of confidence.
The margin of error for this poll is a moderately high +/-4.4%, with a 95% level of confidence.
Thus, pollsters are 95% certain that any given percentage in the poll will be no more than 4.4. percentage points lower, and no more than 4.4 percentage points higher, than what’s shown.
For example, when 55% of people say they support of strongly support restoring voting rights for felons who have served their time, the actual number could be as low 50.6%, or as high as 59.4%.
Local Obituaries
To view local obituaries or to send a note to family and loved ones, please visit the link that follows.
Support Award-winning, Locally Focused Journalism
The FXBG Advance cuts through the talking points to deliver both incisive and informative news about the issues, people, and organizations that daily affect your life. And we do it in a multi-partisan format that has no equal in this region. Over the past year, our reporting was:
First to break the story of Stafford Board of Supervisors dismissing a citizen library board member for “misconduct,” without informing the citizen or explaining what the person allegedly did wrong.
First to explain falling water levels in the Rappahannock Canal.
First to detail controversial traffic numbers submitted by Stafford staff on the Buc-ee’s project
Our media group also offers the most-extensive election coverage in the region and regular columnists like:
And our newsroom is led by the most-experienced and most-awarded journalists in the region — Adele Uphaus (Managing Editor and multiple VPA award-winner) and Martin Davis (Editor-in-Chief, 2022 Opinion Writer of the Year in Virginia and more than 25 years reporting from around the country and the world).
For just $8 a month, you can help support top-flight journalism that puts people over policies.
Your contributions 100% support our journalists.
Help us as we continue to grow!
This article is published under Creative Commons license CC BY-NC-ND. It can be distributed for noncommercial purposes and must include the following: “Published with permission by FXBG Advance.”