ANALYSIS: Will November Bring Bi-partisan Leadership?
Spanberger is standing strong in the latest poll, but her ticket-mates Hashmi and Jones look more vulnerable than just a month ago.
By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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The Roanoke College Poll released today shows Democrat Abigail Spanberger with a 7-point lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in the race for governor. That’s neither surprising, nor attention-grabbing, as Spanberger has consistently been polling in the mid-40s since January.
What is surprising is how narrow the gaps are in the race for the other two top jobs this November — Lt. Governor and Attorney General.
In July, the Virginia Commonwealth University poll had both Ghazala Hashmi and Jay Jones, Democratic candidates for Lt. Governor and Attorney General, respectively, 9 points better than their Republican opposition, John Reid and Jason Miyares. At that time, the Advance wrote that based on numbers in the poll’s cross-tabs showed that Trump was dragging the Republican Party in Virginia down the proverbial tubes with him.
The Roanoke College Poll, however, shows a tightening race for both Lt. Governor and Attorney General.
In both races, the Democratic candidate leads the Republican candidate by 3 percentage points. That’s well within the poll’s margin of error of 4.3%.
While the governor’s race remains Spanberger’s to lose, this poll suggests that for the first time since 2005, Virginia faces the very real possibility of the top three jobs being held by different parties.
What’s Changed?
It would be imprudent to suggest that the Roanoke College Poll shows a “tightening” of the Lt. Governor and Attorney General races, as this is the first time the poll has asked people about who they support for those two offices.
Compared with the VCU poll in July, these races are tighter. But these two polls take very different methodological approaches.
But there is some evidence within the Roanoke College Poll to suggest that the races for Lt. Governor and Attorney General may be closer than the VCU poll previously suggested.
The Roanoke College Poll has consistently asked voters whether they approve or disapprove of both Gov. Glenn Youngkin and President Donald Trump.
Both leaders have enjoyed a bump in their approval numbers among Virginia voters since that question was asked in May 2025.
Youngkin is at 50%, up 6 percentage points from May. Trump is underwater at 41%, but that’s 8 percentage points better than May.
The crosstabs in the VCU poll suggested that Trump was a significant drag on Republican candidates. However, better approval numbers suggest that voters may be warming to the Republican candidates. That could explain why the Lt. Governor and Attorney General races are tight.
Winsome Earle-Sears does not appear to be benefitting from this bump, however. Given the disarray that her campaign is in, that could explain why she is struggling when here fellow Republican candidates are competitive.
Economy
Like the VCU poll in July, the Roanoke College Poll makes clear that economics remains the driving factor in this election.
Asked “What is the most important issue to you in this election? Would you say inflation or the cost of living, jobs, crime, abortion, gun control, or something else?,” 54% of those surveyed said inflation and the cost of living.
Asked which party is better equipped to handle the economy, however, those surveyed selected Republicans over Democrats by a 3 percentage point margin — 36% for Republicans, 33% for Democrats. Ten percent of those polled said both were equally well equipped, while 19% said neither.
This matters because when 84% of those surveyed said that they were either very or somewhat enthusiastic about voting.
If the Roanoke College Poll is correct about how tight the Lt. Governor and Attorney General races are, and the economy is what is driving voters, greater confidence in Republicans to handle the economy could tilt either race for the Republicans.
Here Comes Labor Day
As we enter the Labor Day weekend, when voters traditionally begin to get serious about looking at candidates, neither Spanberger nor Earle-Sears can take anything for granted.
But it is clear that Spanberger has the advantage.
Given how divided the electorate is, Ghazala Hashmi and Jay Jones may need Spanberger to maintain that advantage on election day in order to win their races.
On the flip-side, John Reid and Jason Miyares seem to be finding their footing apart from Earle-Sears
As the campaign ads begin to flood the airways, watch to see how closely Reid and Miyares tie themselves to Sears. They both may find their chances are better when they stand apart from the Republican gubernatorial candidate.
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