Another close election? That’s nothing new.

By David Kerr
This article was republished with permission from FXBG Advance’s news partner InsideNoVa.com. Sign up for InsideNoVa.com’s free email subscription today.

We’re being told by the pollsters and the media that this year’s presidential election is going to be close. Compilations of major polls show tight contests in states that both candidates for president need to win in the Electoral College.

Polls in those “swing” states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina – all show that the candidates, accounting for statistical error, are effectively tied. While not always accurate, this time the polls do seem to reflect the mood of the electorate. We’re narrowly split.

Having said that, are elections really all that close once the votes are counted? Not always, but there have been plenty of close elections – nationally, in other states and in Virginia.

Let’s start with Virginia and go back a few years to 2005 and the attorney general’s race between State Sen. Creigh Deeds and then-Del. Bob McDonnell. More than 1.9 million votes were cast, and McDonnell won the race, after lots of recounting, by only 360 votes. Other Virginia statewide races have been close, but that one set a record.

If a few more people had voted – or, conversely, not voted – the future of politics in the Old Dominion would have been dramatically altered because McDonnell went on to be elected governor – defeating Deeds again – in 2009.

Taking a look at a more local race, in 2017, in what was then the 94th District in the Virginia House of Delegates, Dave Yancey and Shelly Simonds, after one vote was thrown out, were tied with over 20,000 votes cast.

The candidates put their names in a bowl – all this supervised by election officials – and whichever candidate’s name was drawn was elected. Chance was on Yancey’s side, and the Republican was declared the winner – which, more significantly, ensured that the GOP would retain control of the House.

In 1974 – yes, a long time ago, but a great illustration of how close elections can be – New Hampshire’s Senate race featured a seesaw of back-and-forth counts. Louis Wyman, the GOP candidate, was running against Democrat John Durkin. Recount after recount came back with different results. Each candidate at one time or another was certified the winner. That’s how confusing it was.

Finally the U.S. Senate was tasked with determining the winner. But the Senate, after much debate, decided it couldn’t figure out who won either. So it called for a new election, which seemed to be the only answer. Durkin ended up winning.

However, no discussion of close elections is complete without talking about the presidential election in 2000. A whole generation of voters has grown up since then. But it was and may well continue to be the closest presidential election in history.

The result all came down to Florida. It was confusing and tense. The wrangling lasted for weeks, and the margin of difference, out of nearly 6 million votes cast, was only 537 votes. The Florida Supreme Court had ordered a full recount by hand, but the U.S. Supreme Court intervened, canceling that recount, and effectively making George W. Bush the President-elect.

Could we see an election this close again? We might – perhaps even in several states. Also, in an election this volatile, some states, supposedly safe in one column or the other, could turn out to be more marginal than expected. Even Virginia.

Also, there are the congressional races. Some are going to be very tight. In our area, the 7th District House of Representatives seat is being hotly contested by Republican Derrick Anderson and Democrat Eugene Vindman.

It’s a marginal seat. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who is leaving Congress to run for governor, won it by only 4½ percentage points in 2022. Convincing, but no landslide. The area’s politics are volatile, the impact of the national vote on the congressional result is an open question and this one could well come down to the wire.

Two things you can say about this year’s election – and something to keep in mind as you prepare to vote. One, the election probably won’t be decided on election night. Not for the presidency and not for control of the Congress. And there will be recounts.

Also, if you’re tempted not to vote – because to use the tired phrase “my vote won’t matter” – think again. One vote, or a handful of votes, has decided many elections. So get out and vote. Because, yes, your vote does matter.

David Kerr is a Stafford resident and an adjunct professor of political science at VCU. He worked on Capitol Hill and for various federal agencies for many years.

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