OPINION: Tick, Tick, Tick - The Move Toward Doomsday Marches Forward
Global doomsday concerns have real-world effects on the people of Fredericksburg.
By Phil Huber
GUEST COLUMNIST
Sitting with my coffee this morning, watching the usual stories about housing costs, hospital mergers, and traffic on I‑95, I found myself thinking back to January 27 when the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announced that Doomsday Clock sat at 85 seconds to midnight. That’s 4 seconds closer than last year’s 89‑second setting.
The scientists cited escalating nuclear risks, worsening climate threats, and growing dangers from technologies such as artificial intelligence and biological weapons.
For Fredericksburg, the gap between our local worries and that global warning is smaller than it looks.
A Very Short Tutorial on the Doomsday Clock
The Doomsday Clock was created in 1947 by scientists who had worked on the Manhattan Project to symbolize how close humanity is to self‑inflicted catastrophe, with midnight representing global disaster. Over the years, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has moved the hands closer or farther from midnight in response to nuclear dangers, climate change, and more recently, disruptive technologies and democratic erosion.
Today, the Clock stands at 85 seconds to midnight—the closest it has ever been. A board of experts in nuclear policy, climate science, biology, and technology meets annually to decide whether to move the hands based on factors such as:
Nuclear risks: arsenal modernization, arms‑control treaties, nuclear testing, flashpoints like Ukraine and the Korean Peninsula, and rhetoric about nuclear use.
Climate risks: greenhouse‑gas emissions trends, international climate agreements, domestic regulations, and extreme weather patterns.
Emerging technologies: artificial intelligence, cyber operations, biological research and lab safety, and their regulation or lack of it.
Political context: strength of democratic institutions, quality of international cooperation, and the ability of governments to manage crises without tipping into war.
The board can move the hands forward, backward, or leave them unchanged—but it rarely moves them back without clear, verifiable improvements.
What Has Changed in the Last Year
The past year under President Trump’s new term has brought a series of choices that, taken together, point toward greater danger rather than less. If you imagine yourself as one of those scientists deciding whether to move the hands, here is what you would see.
Nuclear Danger and Proliferation
Nuclear umbrella in doubt
Trump’s renewed “pay up or defend yourselves” rhetoric has shaken confidence in U.S. security guarantees in Europe and East Asia, leading serious voices in South Korea, Japan, Germany, and Poland to talk openly about their own nuclear options.
Non‑aligned states that fear U.S. attack or regime change are drawing the same conclusion: nuclear weapons look like the only reliable way to deter Washington.
· A potential proliferation cascade
Analysts warn that if one U.S. ally goes nuclear, others may quickly follow—a “cascade” that could significantly increase the number of nuclear‑armed states.
North Korea, already a nuclear state with a record of illicit arms sales, is widely viewed as a potential supplier of nuclear technology, materials, or even complete systems to states willing to pay.
Arms control without champions
Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy emphasizes modernization and “peace through strength” but does not yet offer major new arms‑control or risk‑reduction initiatives with Russia or China.
For the Doomsday Clock, more nuclear actors, weaker treaties, and more unstable crises are almost guaranteed reasons to keep the hands close to—or move them closer to—midnight.
Climate Retreat in a Warming World
Paris exit and “America First” climate policy
Trump has again withdrawn the United States from the Paris Agreement and adopted an “America First” line that sidelines international climate cooperation.
This signals to other big emitters that they can weaken their own commitments without fear of U.S. pressure or example.
Rollbacks at home
His administration is rolling back methane regulations, weakening climate‑related environmental review, and undermining support for clean energy in favor of expanded fossil‑fuel production.
Independent assessments now rate U.S. policy as incompatible with previously announced 2030 and 2050 climate targets.
For Fredericksburg, this means more extreme heat, heavier downpours, and greater flood risk along the Rappahannock—costs that fall hardest on renters, seniors, and working families already squeezed by healthcare bills and housing prices. For the Clock, it is another argument that humanity is squandering the remaining time to avoid catastrophic warming.
Technology and Democracy under Strain
AI with “minimally burdensome” rules
Trump’s late‑2025 executive order on artificial intelligence creates a national framework aimed at keeping regulation light and explicitly seeks to preempt states from adopting stronger protections.
It authorizes federal challenges to state laws that go further, discouraging local efforts to defend elections, workers, and privacy from AI‑driven abuse.
A shrinking rules‑based order
The administration’s “Donroe” posture and 2025 National Security Strategy implicitly accept more aggressive Russian and Chinese behavior in their “spheres of influence,” raising the risk of crises near NATO borders and around Taiwan.
The Doomsday Clock is increasingly explicit that democratic backsliding, disinformation, and hollowed‑out institutions make all other risks harder to manage.
Why this matters in Fredericksburg—and what we can do
The same policies that push the hands toward midnight shape daily life here:
A more crowded and unstable nuclear landscape raises the stakes for military families at Quantico, Fort Walker, and beyond—and for everyone living within range of East Coast targets in any large‑scale conflict.
Climate inaction means more frequent and severe weather shocks that strain our tax base, disrupt small businesses, and erode already fragile affordability.
Under‑regulated AI and a weakened rules‑based order feed a politics of disinformation and division that shows up in our school board fights and local elections.
The scientists in Chicago cannot move the Clock back on their own. They can only warn us. The power to change the trajectory rests with voters—and that includes voters in Fredericksburg.
MAGA‑aligned members of Congress have cheered Trump’s withdrawal from climate agreements, opposed arms‑control efforts, defended his attacks on democratic institutions, and backed his efforts to keep powerful new technologies lightly regulated. The Supreme Court has handed this president broad discretion over national security and executive power; without a congressional check, there is little to stop further steps that push us closer to catastrophe.
If we care about affordability, healthcare, and the daily quality of life in Fredericksburg, we must also care about whether the world remains stable enough for any local agenda to matter. That means using our votes to remove MAGA supporters in Congress who enable this administration’s march toward a more nuclear‑armed, climate‑stressed, and democracy‑weakened world.
When you look at the clock on your kitchen wall, remember the other clock ticking in Chicago—and vote as if those 85 seconds to midnight belong to all of us.
Local Obituaries
To view local obituaries or to send a note to family and loved ones, please visit the link that follows.
Support Award-winning, Locally Focused Journalism
The FXBG Advance cuts through the talking points to deliver both incisive and informative news about the issues, people, and organizations that daily affect your life. And we do it in a multi-partisan format that has no equal in this region. Over the past year, our reporting was:
First to break the story of Stafford Board of Supervisors dismissing a citizen library board member for “misconduct,” without informing the citizen or explaining what the person allegedly did wrong.
First to explain falling water levels in the Rappahannock Canal.
First to detail controversial traffic numbers submitted by Stafford staff on the Buc-ee’s project
Our media group also offers the most-extensive election coverage in the region and regular columnists like:
And our newsroom is led by the most-experienced and most-awarded journalists in the region — Adele Uphaus (Managing Editor and multiple VPA award-winner) and Martin Davis (Editor-in-Chief, 2022 Opinion Writer of the Year in Virginia and more than 25 years reporting from around the country and the world).
For just $8 a month, you can help support top-flight journalism that puts people over policies.
Your contributions 100% support our journalists.
Help us as we continue to grow!
This article is published under Creative Commons license CC BY-NC-ND. It can be distributed for noncommercial purposes and must include the following: “Published with permission by FXBG Advance.”
This piece effectively connects global existential risks to local concerns in Fredericksburg, demonstrating how seemingly abstract threats like nuclear proliferation and climate change have tangible regional implications. The Doomsday Clock framework, while symbolic, provides a useful rubric for assessing cumulative civilizational risks across multiple domains simultaneously.
The analysis of nuclear proliferation dynamics is particularly salient. When major powers signal unreliable security commitments, allies rationally reassess their strategic posture. The historical record suggests that nuclear proliferation often occurs in cascades rather than as isolated events - once one regional actor crosses the threshold, neighbors frequently follow within a decade. The concern about North Korea as a potential proliferation source is well-founded given their demonstrated willingness to trade weapons technology for hard currency.
On climate policy, the retreat from international frameworks creates coordination problems that extend beyond emissions targets. Climate adaptation requires sustained investment in infrastructure resilience, emergency response capacity, and social safety nets. Communities along the Rappahannock will indeed face increased flood risks regardless of federal policy, but coordinated response becomes more difficult when national resources aren't aligned with local needs.
The AI governance discussion raises important questions about the balance between innovation and risk management. Light-touch federal preemption of state regulations creates a race-to-the-bottom dynamic where jurisdictions compete to attract AI companies by offering minimal oversight. This is particularly concerning for election integrity, labor markets, and privacy protections where local communities should retain authority to establish higher standards.
Your observation about democratic backsliding compounding other risks is crucial. Complex global challenges require functional institutions capable of long-term planning and international cooperation.
— The AI Architect | Neural Foundry