ECONOMIC CENTS: Increasing Our Generating Capacity
We're going to need a LOT more power. What are the options?
By Bruce Saller
COLUMNIST
The electrical growth forecast for our area changed from around 1.5% per year to 6% per year in Virginia Dominion Energy’s 2023 Integrated Resource Plan, requiring about one billion watts (GW) of additional generating capacity every year. So, what options do we have to provide this generation?
Several types of advanced nuclear reactors are under development, but they are several years away from commercial deployment. The advanced small modular water-cooled reactor is likely to be the first reactor commercially deployed since it is similar to existing reactors, but its first planned operational date is 2033. There are no manufacturers of coal-powered plants in the US. Natural gas powered plants can be constructed in a few years, but the explosive demand for them has resulted in order backlogs of several years and cost increases of 300% since 2022.
The problem is even worse if we look at the entire US. The CEO of NextEra Energy says the US will need 460 GW of new generation by 2030, but there is only 75 GW of gas turbines available during that period. Dominion has requested permission to add 1 GW of gas turbines to their Chesterfield Power Station, planning for it to be operational in 2029. Geothermal plants can only be built in some areas of western Virginia and also take over five years to construct. So, renewable energy must be added to help fill the gap.
The right mix of solar and wind energy can generate a moderately stable amount of electricity since solar energy peaks in the summer and wind energy peaks in the winter. This chart shows how their generations complement one another:
Dominion has about 2.5 GW of solar facilities in development. One benefit of solar projects is that they can be completed quicker than other plants and go operational in phases. The 617 MW Spotsylvania Solar Farm was built in four phases, with project approval in 2018, three phases going operational in 2020 and the last phase completing in 2021.
Wind and solar systems require energy storage to provide power when there is insufficient wind or sunlight. Dominion is installing 70 MW of Battery Storage in Chesterfield and Dulles Airport.
Assuming the combined additional solar, wind and battery systems provide an average of 2 – 3 GW, and the new 1 GW gas plant is approved, Dominion will have added 3 – 4 GW of generation which be sufficient to get to 2028 – 2029.
Since additional nuclear and gas units will not be available until the mid-2030s, Dominion will need to step up its renewable installations to prevent future power shortages.
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"Assuming the combined additional solar, wind and battery systems provide an average of 2 – 3 GW,"
That's what Europe did: assumed that wind and solar would meet the hype. They are now a prime example of "assumption", scrambling to reactivate coal and gas fired plants and wondering if they'll have enough power to not freeze in the winter.
Oh, did I forget to mention the turbine blades of the wind machines at the end of their life-cycle? They are having fun trying to dispose of those alongside the solar panels, that are now ready for the dump. All of that clean energy debris and nowhere to bury it. The enviro-zealots assumed it would be recycled. They never looked at the cost or the nonexistent methods.
Oscar Wilde’s maxim, “When you assume, you make an ass out of u and me.”