ELECTION DAY SPECIAL EDITION - What to Know, What We're Watching
The races end at 7 p.m. Here's all you need to know for voting on Tuesday, and all the Advance will be watching. Stay with us all day - the home to the region's best political reporters.
By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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It’s Election Day, and between Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania, and Stafford, there are 26 local races to keep track of. Voters in these localities will also decide five House races, and take part in the election of the three highest elected offices in the state — Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General.
Stay with the Advance all day for information that people going to the polls will need, a 4 p.m. video highlighting what the Advance will be watching throughout the evening, and live results as they come online.
On Wednesday, watch for the best analysis in the region of Tuesday’s outcomes and what it may mean for the year(s) ahead.
Going to the Polls?
Poll Times: Polls open at 6 a.m., and they close at 7 p.m. Anyone in line when the polls closed will be allowed to vote.
Weather: Clear, blue skies mean that weather shouldn’t keep people away. However, come dressed for the occasion. The forecast is for lows in the upper-30s and lower-40s when the polls open at 6 a.m. Temperatures will top out in the mid-60s, before dipping down to the mid-50s when the polls close at 7 p.m.
Where Do I Vote: Unsure of your polling location? Visit polling place lookup at the Virginia Department of Elections, enter your address, and find out.
Identification: Voters need to present IDs. For a list of acceptable forms of identification, visit the VDOE’s Voter Identification Chart.
Get Ready for Results
At 4 p.m., the Advance will release a video with Editor-in-Chief Martin Davis and Managing Editor & Correspondent Adele Uphaus discussing the races to watch and what to expect on election night.
As results come in, the Advance will announce winners on its website. Tune to FXBGAdvance.com throughout the evening to see who will be the next leaders locally and at the state level.
Throughout the evening, the Advance will be checking in at local watch parties to collect thoughts from both the winners and the losers.
The Day After
On Wednesday morning, Martin Davis will provide readers with his analysis of what transpired Tuesday night, and what it means for year(s) ahead.
Then, throughout the day, watch for columns from correspondent Hank Silverberg and University of Mary Washington professor Stephen Farnsworth.
The Races We Are Watching
Fredericksburg
By the end of Tuesday night, the future of Fredericksburg will come into sharper focus. Will voters opt to back candidates who see a future ground in growth, or those who consistently support slow-to-no growth? Will they support generational change, or favor older candidates with years of experience on the Council?
As for the School Board, the race has become one about the current leadership and whether voters are willing to stay the course or seek change. Two incumbents are running—Malvina Kay, the sister of Superintendent Marci Catlett and a longtime Board member who hasn’t had a contested race since 2006, for Ward 4, and Katie Pomeroy for Ward 2.
Pomeroy is uncontested. Kay does not have an opponent on the ballot, but Stan Jones began a write-in campaign for the Ward 4 seat in September.
Spotsylvania
Data centers and their role in the county’s future have become wedge issues in the waning months of the Board of Supervisors’ races. Kevin Marshall, Chris Yakabouski, and Lori Hayes all face competitive races.
The School Board is not likely to face a return to the chaos it experienced prior to the 2023 election, but the current crop of candidates are all novices with no prior Board experience. Depending on Tuesday’s results, the Board could stay on its course back to stability, or face the prospect of another insurgence in two years.
Stafford
This is the county to watch. According to CNN, Stafford is the “barometer for the Virginia election.” The county has steadily been turning blue in recent races. In 2022, Abigail Spanberger lost the county by less than 200 votes. A strong showing for her could mean a long night for Republicans statewide.
Should Spanberger do well, will that carryover to the Board of Supervisors’ races? If yes, then the balance of power on the board could well change. The race that promises to be close is the one pitting incumbent Pamela Yeung against Bart Randall. Yeung benefits from a strong Spanberger showing, but Randall could split voters.
The School Board is also going to be tightly contested. The Garrisonville race has been particularly nasty as the moderate and MAGA Republicans have split and engaged in an open online war in recent weeks, opening the door for Wanda Blackwell.
House Races
The race between incumbent Bobby Orrock and newcomer Nicole Cole (HD 66) is shaping up to be a close one. Cole has spent heavily to unseat the longest serving, most senior member of the House. A Cole victory could mark a big night for Dems, as it would be considered an upset victory.
Another close race is HD 64 featuring incumbent Paul Milde and Stacey Carroll. Carroll has bested Milde in fundraising and campaign ads, and all indicators are that this race will be a close one. The difference in the two is significant, and a Carroll victory could mean Democrats are racing toward a stranglehold on the House.
The Big Three
The race for governor doesn’t look to be close if the polls are to be believed. What people are watching is Spanberger’s margin of victory should she win. A margin of +3 or less suggests that Spanberger will have to pull on her across-the-aisle skills to have success in Richmond. If the margin is +5 or more, Spanberger will still reach across the aisle, but she’ll have a far easier time getting her agenda through.
A victory by Winsome Earle-Sears would be a major upset. Between struggles with the MAGA wing of the Republican Party, and one of the worst-run campaigns in recent memory, Sears’ race is likely to become a case study in how not to run a statewide campaign.
As for the Attorney General’s race — it’s a tossup. If Jones loses, his self-inflicted implosion will also be studied for years. If he manages to pull it out, it’s because he is benefiting from Spanberger’s coattails.
The long and short of it all?
Virginia will get an early look on Tuesday at how long Spanberger’s coattails are.
Gerrymandering Wildcard
Despite protestations by representative Don Scott that all Democrats did by taking steps to bring redistricting to the voters next year was give them a choice, there is a chance that the move could backfire.
Voter turnout for an off-year election has set records, but in a state as evenly divided as Virginia, the gerrymandering play may spark a Republican voter surge on Election Day.
Because it happened so late in the campaign, a big Democratic turnout in early voting may stem Republican anger.
This story was corrected on November 4 at 7:30 a.m. to state that Katie Pomeroy is also an incumbent running for reelection to Fredericksburg School Board. We regret the error.
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