By Donnie Johnston, ADVANCE COLUMNIST
Suddenly, we are scanning the long-range weather forecast looking for snowflakes.
Yep! It is that time of year again. From now until the first of April—and sometimes after that—snowstorms are possible. And some of us cannot wait.
It will definitely be hard for Mother Nature to live up to weather forecasters’ expectations for this winter. In typical fashion for our times, forecasters have weaponized the current El Nino (warming waters in the eastern Pacific) to the point where massive amounts of snow are expected along the East Coast and Mid-Atlantic.
“Experts” are comparing the coming winter to those of 1995-96, 2009-10 and 2015-16 when blizzards hit our area, snarling traffic and causing all kinds of problems.
The difference is that back then nobody predicted all those snowstorms. They just happened. This year, after all this talk, we will be thoroughly disappointed if the big snows don’t come this winter.
Two general observations here. First, El Ninos generally bring moderate winter temperatures to our area because the subtropical jet stream rides up the coast and brings warmer air from the Gulf of Mexico.
Yes, it also often brings copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf, but moisture needs warm air in just the right proportions and at the right levels of the atmosphere to create snow and ice. Without the polar vortex dipping down at just the right moment, all we get from an El Nino is rain and mud.
But cold air and moisture do occasionally come together in our area and produce heavy snow. The Blue Ridge Mountains (Big Meadows) got about 45 inches on Jan. 6, 1996, for example. And a storm like that could happen this winter.
My second observation is that all this “hot air” from the experts just might make it too warm to snow.
I said earlier that we can now start watching the long-range forecast for snow because there have been some nice storms in November, including several over the Thanksgiving weekend, all of which made it difficult to get to Grandma’s house for turkey.
But there have been crippling snowstorms even earlier than that. On Nov. 11, 1987, for example, about a foot of snow fell from Fredericksburg north to Baltimore.
I remember that well. A friend and I were loading feeder calves to take to a sale when rain changed to snow. Within half an hour the ground was white, and we were prompted to speed up our operation. We were lucky to get the cattle to the auction before roads deteriorated.
That storm came without warning. No forecast that I saw predicted it. Just cold rain, the TV weathermen said. They sure blew that one.
Already there have been heavy snows in the Rockies and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan (where one small town near Marquette got 357 inches last winter), but that is normal for this time of year.
Will we get bombarded with snow this winter? Only time will tell, but we can now legitimately start anticipating storms and watching the forecasts.
It is about this time each year that some readers forget about how nature works. A cold snap hits and many people are simply amazed that they need a coat. But that’s what happens in winter. It gets cold, just like in the summer it gets hot.
So don’t be shocked when you walk outside in shorts and the hair on your legs freezes. It is winter and it is going to get cold—unless you live in the tropics.
It is hard to believe that Thanksgiving is about two weeks away and Christmas is right around the corner (and already in every department store).
Deer season (with regular guns) begins this weekend and there is plenty of venison (much cheaper than beef) on the hoof to fill up the freezer.
Virginia’s herd, which is a true traffic hazard, needs to be trimmed, but with so many subdivisions, it is hard to find safe places to hunt in many locations, so the overpopulation gets even worse.
When I was growing up, seeing a live deer was a rarity and a novelty. Now I see deer everywhere, even on the streets of towns and cities all across our area.
After World War II there was a re-population effort across Northern Virginia and it has worked well—too well, in many cases.
As I mentioned in an earlier column, the rut is now in progress, so be careful – day and night. I almost hit a buck chasing a doe last week at one-o’clock in the afternoon.
As John Wayne once said, “Love doesn’t go by a calendar [or a clock].”
That’s especially true for deer.
