Friday July 14, 2023
BASTILLE DAY | COMMENTARY: To win in November, Dems need ‘La-di-dah-dy and everybody’ - and then some
Bastille Day!
Tonight from 5 pm to 8 pm, head down to Hurkamp Park and celebrate Bastille Day! Known in France as Fête nationale française, this event is hosted by the Fredericksburg Sister Cities Association.
Want to learn more about Bastille Day? Read this summary from France 24.
To get in on the fun, check out this Facebook page.
Treat yourself and your family this evening, and join our great ally across the Atlantic in celebrating the day that was instrumental in launching the French Revolution.
COMMENTARY: To win in November, Dems need ‘La-di-dah-dy and everybody’ - and then some
by Martin Davis
It’s that time of year again, when political parties convene their “unity” events.
The idea is simple enough. In the wake of a primary, bring all the party people together in a show of unity for the winners and a show of respect for the losers. The idea? Energize all party members to go to the polls and support the party ticket.
For Democrats, that event happened Wednesday evening in downtown Fredericksburg at Rebellion, the business establishment owned by Democratic candidate for Senate District 27, Joel Griffin.
And did the Dems turn out. In addition to Joel Griffin, who will sit at the top of the ticket in November, and Joshua Cole, who will be the Democrat running for House District 65, there were a dozen other candidates present.
Each was given their moment in the limelight, which meant the speeches went on for an hour as each candidate spelled out their platforms and congratulated Griffin.
Some themes that the party may build around for November emerged during those speeches.
Values will be a big issue: In his comments, Ben Litchfield stressed the importance of Democratic values in the upcoming election.
“People came up to me and said, ‘I didn’t expect you to support Joel.’
“Why not?” he then said. “He’s our Democratic nominee - Joel supports the best of our values.” What are those? Fighting for an economy that works for everyone. Supporting teachers and schools. And protecting everyone’s rights.
Experience matters: Especially among school board candidates, there was much made of bringing experience to the job. Belen Rodas, running for school board in Spotsylvania, stressed her years of experience in the classroom. So, too, Carol Medawar.
Sarah Baker and Jarvis Bailey, both of whom are educators, put that fact front and center in their speeches.
At least in Spotsylvania (more on that county in a minute) experience could prove a plus, following two years of chaos caused by a leadership that clearly doesn’t understand education, and openly criticizes people who do understand it.
Unafraid to stand on traditional Republican values: Though not totally surprising, Democrats are getting more vocal about reclaiming issues that have in recent decades been cornerstones of Republican support.
More than a few of the candidates, for example, emphasized their military backgrounds to whops of support and applause. Griffin has long stressed his Marine Corps pedigree. Baker and Bailey and Mike Martin, who is running for the Board of Supervisors in Spotsylvania, and Howard Rudat, who is running for Board of Supervisors in Stafford, also put their veteran credentials front and center.
Small business ownership was another topic that candidates stressed. Griffin, of course, but also Will Mackintosh - through his spokesperson, as he couldn’t attend - whose husband runs a successful small business in the city.
Democrats are unified: Joshua Cole, in closing the evening, stressed that the Democratic party is building a unified base of support because they support everyone’s rights.
“What do we say?” he asked rhetorically. “For la-di-dah-dy, and everybody.”
And everybody, he clearly believes, will see Democrats as a package deal and vote accordingly.
“Those who are running for the Board of Supervisors, those who are running for city council, those who are running for school board, you will be supported this year, you will be financed this year, you will be represented this year, and you will be carried along, and you will win this year.”
Dems are going to need la-di-dah-dy and then some
The morning after the primaries, I noted that Tara Durant had the leg up on Griffin in SD 27. Her position was certainly strengthened by the announcement on Thursday about how much money Glenn Youngkin’s PAC is going to have on hand to pour into these races.
Youngkin's Spirit of Virginia political action committee has raised $8.5 million in the first six months of 2023, according to details provided to The Associated Press ahead of a Monday reporting deadline. And it will leave Spirit of Virginia with $6 million in cash on hand just over two months before the start of early voting in this year's legislative elections that will decide political control of the currently divided General Assembly.
That means these races - from the state senate all the way down - are going to become extremely expensive ones. Whether Dems can match that kind of fundraising prowess remains to be seen.
But for all Durant has going for her, there is one significant head wind she is facing.
Lack of unity.
In Spotsylvania County, a backlash has erupted against Durant, with the most extreme elements of the county’s Republican base going so far as to question Durant’s conservative bona fides and threatening a write-in campaign for Matt Strickland.
Though he was crushed in the primary by Durant, he has yet to concede the race. Could a write-in vote actually work? To win the election, no. This race will be won or loss in Stafford County. But if the write-in campaign generates enough support, he could take enough votes from Durant to cost her the election if Griffin overperforms in Stafford.
The school board issue may also cause Durant heartburn. Expect turnout to be strong, not because of the Durant - Griffin race, but because of the numbers of people likely to show up and vote for change on the school board.
How many people this actually causes to vote against Durant remains to be seen.
The real concern may be that Republicans in Spotsylvania just don’t bother to show up. That’s a very non-Republican thing to do. Usually it’s Democrats who throw up their hands and just don’t bother - see the 2016 election when Democrats decided not to vote and handed the election to Donald Trump.
Also in Spotsylvania County, current House Representative Phillip Scott endorsed Nick Ignacio earlier this summer, then quickly shifted gears and reversed that endorsement, further angering the extremists in the county.
Given the level of disunity and angst on the Republican side of the aisle, Durant can take nothing for granted in this election.
If Republican disunity does become an issue, then the election will likely become a referendum on Youngkin.
And right now, I wouldn’t be placing bets that Youngkin’s support is as strong as many seem to believe it is. Remember how embarrassed he was last November, for example.
Still, even with all the headwinds Durant faces, she remains the frontrunner until more substantive information suggests that she isn’t.
And that means, if Democrats are to have a serious shot at winning in November in Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania, and Stafford, they’re going to have to be unified, and actually turn out to vote.
Something they couldn’t be bothered to do during the primary.
So between now and November, Democrats are going to have to figure out how to get “La-di-dah-dy and everybody” to the polls.
Catchy phrases alone won’t do it. (Though let’s be honest, they don’t hurt.)
Shoe leather, clear messaging, and making the case that this race matters, could.
Those elements were present at Rebellion. Now, can they take it to the streets?
You didn’t mention anything about Monica Gary.
No way I can vote for Durant. And Dems want me to vote for a guy that has blocked me on social media for wanting clarity and asking questions before the primary election?
Values matter, but so does integrity.
It’d be a lot easier to back someone who isnt afraid of clarifying his positions and answering questions.
It’d be a lot easier to back someone who I can get to know. Can’t do that this day in age when what they are doing is on social media and they’ve blocked you.
The race in SD27 is going to be interesting for sure. If Strickland’s base is really going to go the write in route, he and Gary will BOTH be taking away from both Durant and Griffin.