FROM THE EDITOR: The Nation Should Turn Its Eye to Stafford County, Virginia
Virginia Dems showed the nation what it takes to win when government is not working for the people. Tearing it down and pointing the finger aren't the answer. Creating solutions, is.
By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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The scale of Democrats’ triumph in Virginia Tuesday night would be difficult to overestimate.
Abigail Spanberger won the governorship by 15 percentage points over sitting Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, the Republican heir apparent to Gov. Glenn Youngkin who will likely leave office with approval ratings above 50 percent. It was the largest margin of victory in a gubernatorial election since 1961, when Democrat Albertis Harrison won with 63 percent of votes cast.
Further, the Virginia House of Delegates saw Democrats pick up 13 seats in the 100-seat body, giving them a 64-to-36 seat advantage. The party won every House seat that the Virginia Public Access Project had labeled either “strong” or “leans” Democratic, all 10 seats designated as “competitive,” and six of 14 seats rated “leans Republican.”
This election was “a clear repudiation of what is going on in Washington,” said Ben Litchfield, a longtime Stafford political player who previously ran for state senate on a platform of making government work for people. “Voters are mad at the dysfunction.”
If one stops there, the lesson would seem to be that Democrats strategizing the 2026 midterms should lean into the “anyone but Trump” message they have relied on for the better part of a decade now. Things in Washington are so bad, the logic goes, that voters will reflexively vote for anyone not associated with the Trump label.
That would be a serious misreading of the Virginia tea leaves, however, as well as Litchfield’s message.
Yes, federal government ineptness and Donald Trump’s indifference to federal workers and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program beneficiaries was central to what happened Tuesday night in Virginia.
But that is just one part of the story, and not the most important piece.
That piece, according to Litchfield, is that “people want government to work for them.”
In Stafford County Tuesday night, long a conservative stronghold, it was candidates focused on delivering a message of what they will do, as opposed to what their opponents or the federal government weren’t doing, that more fully explains the party’s success.
A Better Stafford, A Better Virginia
The architect of Tuesday night’s victory was Stafford Democratic Committee Chair Howard Rudat, who told the Advance that the difference in this election was “the quality of the candidates. … Every one of them brought quality, charisma, dedication, and a love of each other. Every time they went out the door, they were a team. It was one team with one vision for a better Stafford, a better Virginia.”
Equally important, each candidate ran their campaign on facts, Rudat said, “not nitpicking … calling out previous transgressions that candidates at any level may of had, and focusing on what they were going to do as opposed to what others did not do.”
It was a theme that ran up-and-down the Democratic lineup Tuesday night.
Spanberger early in her campaign rolled out several key plans for dealing with the significant challenges facing the commonwealth. Her Growing Virginia Plan, for example, recognizes the damage the Trump administration’s reductions in government workforce is doing to Virginia, but focuses not on challenging that but diversifying the commonwealth’s business environment building on the existing strengths Virginia is known for — top-rated universities, a strong tech community, and a highly skilled workforce.
Maya Guy, who will sit on Stafford’s Board of Supervisors beginning in January, refused throughout her campaign to “go low,” as she said Tuesday night at the Democrats’ watch party. Rather, she focused on constructive solutions to Stafford’s problems — Education, transportation and infrastructure, and economic development.
Wanda Blackwell, who will join Stafford’s School Board, similarly stayed focused on issues of importance to students and steered clear of the bathroom controversy that literally fractured the Stafford Republican Committee. Her two opponents were both members of the Republican Committee — one MAGA, one Reagan-esque — who focused on internal party wars as opposed to the challenge before the district.
The strategy worked in one of Stafford’s reddest districts, Hartwood, where Shannon Fingerholz pulled arguably the biggest upset of the night by beating her Republican opponent by a narrow margin. Like Guy and Blackwell, Fingerholz stayed above board and solutions focused throughout her campaign.
At the end of the night, seven of the eight seats up for election on the Stafford Board of Supervisors and the Stafford School Board went to Democrats, ensuring Democratic majorities on both boards.
This is particularly important for the Board of Supervisors, whose board has been wracked by infighting and scandal over the past several years.
Taking a Constructive Message Across Virginia
Stafford’s blue wave places the county squarely in the Democratic category for the foreseeable future like its neighbors to the north — Prince William County, Fairfax County, and Arlington. It’s a move that has been a half-decade in the making, as Stafford’s demographics continue to shift.
But it was the candidates’ constructive messaging as much as any demographic shifts that explained the Dems’ victory in Stafford. This is evident in that Democrats across the state — taking their cue from Spanberger — ran on a similar playbook and overperformed.
Spotsylvania County, for example, which borders Stafford to the south and has long been Republican, went for Abigail Spanberger by a bit more than 1,300 votes. This is notable as Spanberger failed to win Spotsylvania in her three successful runs in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District. She lost the county in 2018 by 4,000 votes, in 2020 by nearly 7,000 votes, and in 2022 by just under 4,000 votes. Demographic shifts, which are occurring in Spotsylvania, cannot account for Spanberger’s victory in that county.
In the House District 66 race, which includes Spotsylvania and part of neighboring Caroline County, Nicole Cole pulled off one the biggest upsets of the evening, beating the longest-serving member of the House of Delegates, Bobby Orrock by some 1,300 votes.
Cole’s message to the voters was more confrontational than that of her Stafford colleagues, but the overall messaging was focused on what she planned to accomplish.
“For 35 years,” Cole told the Advance, “this district went without real representation, but tonight voters stood up for leadership that puts people first—stronger public schools, affordable healthcare, and protecting women’s rights.”
And in the greater Richmond area, four seats flipped in favor of the Democrats. Leslie Mehta who won House District 73 described herself in an interview with the Virginia Mercury “as a ‘pragmatist’ who will work across the aisle to get things done.” Key to her efforts will be protecting “reproductive health care access in the state’s constitution, automatically restore voting rights to people who complete felony sentences and remove a prohibition on same-sex marriage.”
Destruction or Delivery
Tuesday’s lessons for Democrats abound, but they are not simple.
Voters in the Commonwealth are upset with government that isn’t working for them, currently in large measure due to steps being taken by the Trump administration against federal workers and safety-net programs.
What Tuesday proves, however, is that focusing on the destruction of government is no path to gaining control of government.
For Democrats looking to 2026, Nicole Cole puts it this way.
“You have to listen to the people, and you have to have a candidate who knows their district, is willing to be in the district, and [is] doing the work.”
The seeds for Cole’s Tuesday night victory were laid in 2022 when, following the takeover of the Spotsylvania School Board by a faction that favored burning books and forcing out teachers, she orchestrated a retaking of that Board by a pro-public-school slate of candidates.
“My design wasn’t to run for the House of Delegates at that time,” she said, “but that work let the community know that I would do what was necessary to support them.”
As important, she reached out to everyone in her district, not limiting herself to the Democratic voters and working to ensure they turn out. She knocked Republican and independent doors, too. And she knocked them relentlessly for a year.
It’s a message echoed by Kecia Evans, who will sit on Stafford’s Board of Supervisors this January, taking the seat from a longtime Republican. “People here in Stafford are looking for change,” she told the Advance. “They see how the Board currently is, and … with all the frustration … people saw that … and said this is not where Stafford should be. Stafford is rich, Stafford has so much going for it.”
The Dems who rolled through Virginia Tuesday night knew their communities, listened to people across the spectrum, and put together plans to make government work for everyone.
In short, Virginia’s Dems reminded the party everywhere that there are no shortcuts. Do the work to make government work for everyone.
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The idea that Bobby Orrock hasn't represented his district for 35 years is disrespectful nonsense. Disagree with him on policy. Fine. But the character attack is uncalled for and just plain wrong.