By Donnie Johnston, ADVANCE COLUMNIST
They keep coming—those dire winter weather predictions.
It seems like there is a new one every day on social media and now the TV weather forecasters are starting to get into the act.
Snow! There’s gonna be snow! Plenty of snow! Snow’s grandma! The worst storm since 2016 and maybe the snowiest winter since 2009-10!
It is all because of El Niño, that warm belt of water in the Eastern Pacific that has further intensified to record strength. It will bring big old snowstorms to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
You look at the maps and I-95 is the dividing line between some snow and “bring out the bulldozers.” From Fredericksburg west to Charleston, WVA is the bullseye. From the way the prognosticators talk, there just might be so much snow that the Blue Ridge Mountains may disappear under the drifts and West Virginia may become a glacier.
As with everything else in this country, Americans are divided into two camps when it comes to snow. There are those like me who say, “Bring it on! The deeper the better!” and others who are ready to move to Florida or the Arizona desert based on the predictions alone.
I’m not all that excited just yet. Predictions can be wrong. After all, NOAA predicted up to six Atlantic hurricanes this season and so far we haven’t had a single one, which is a record. Forecasters have a hard time getting the forecast right three days out, so I view predicting January blizzards three months in advance with some skepticism.
Still, I want to be prepared. I canned everything that was available in the garden this summer and last week I stacked up an extra load of wood just to be on the safe side. I like to be ready and not leave anything to chance.
What do I think? I have issued winter predictions for more than 40 years and I hit the 2009-10 forecast almost exactly on the nose—right down to the specific dates. Over the years I have been about 85 percent accurate.
The coming winter, however, has me baffled. My gut feeling is that it will be a mild and muddy season with little snow. Somewhere in the back of my mind, however, is the same concern I had in the fall of 2009, a worry that preceded three major snowstorms.
If you look at those prediction maps out there, you’ll see that stripe of moisture that extends through the mountains of western North Carolina, into Central Virginia and on up the East Coast. And it is true that El Ninos typically produce these types of patterns, bringing in copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
But to make snow, you need more than moisture. You need cold air at the right levels of the atmosphere, and we are in an area where the cold air finds itself in a constant battle with the influences of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulfstream.
Elevation also plays a major role. A hundred miles to the west, the Appalachian Mountains rise up in West Virginia and the thinner, colder air creates a perfect breeding ground for snow. Not in Virginia’s Piedmont. Between the Blue Ridge Mountains and the coast, it is almost always a crapshoot. Snow? Rain? Ice? It could be any of the three – or all three, as we saw last winter. Ocean influences are often the determining factor.
As for nature’s signs, well, it is too early for persimmon seeds to tell their tale and wooly worms are few and far between (maybe they’ve all gone south). Foggy mornings in August (one for every snow in the winter)? Maybe four or five, and none were of any consequence.
Mast? They always say that there are plenty of nuts the fall before a hard winter. There are very few walnuts and chestnuts in my part of the country (April freeze got them) but plenty of acorns. Again, confusing signs.
But, as happens with El Niños, we are stuck in a wet pattern, at least for now. In August of 2025 we had 1.4 inches of rain and the same amount in September. And last winter was a dry one (just the one snow-ice storm that hung around forever). This year we had 10 inches of rain in August and more than six inches in September.
The moisture flow is set, but will we get the cold air? That’s the big question. One part of me says we won’t. The other says we’ll have about three major snowstorms, a winter similar to 2009-10.
I’m preparing for the latter. The wood pile is high and the pantry shelves are full. I’m ready to hunker down if the snowstorms do come.
Still, I think it will be mud and not snow that we’ll have to contend with this winter.
But I’d rather see the snow. Mud isn’t very romantic and doesn’t make a nice Christmas card. And I can’t think of a single seasonal song about mud.
Winter is not winter without snow. I’m ready. Bring it on!
