Monday June 19, 2023

New Dominion Podcast with guest Nicole Cole | Have Republicans gone too far? | Other stories we are working to complete | Correction | Share F2S

New Dominion Podcast

Spotsylvania School Board member Nicole Cole (Battlefield District) discusses the politicization of education, the role of parents and teachers, and the need for a common good now more than ever.

ANALYSIS: Have Republicans gone too far?

Tuesday will tell us a lot

Photo by Element5 Digital on Unsplash

by Martin Davis

Teo Armus of the Washington Post got things about right on Friday in his piece “Insider-outsider Va. GOP primary fight will test Youngkin’s staying power” about Tuesday’s Republican primary vote:

As she seeks a promotion to the state Senate two years later, though, the Republican state delegate [Tara Durant] is now by any definition part of the Richmond in-crowd — and her most visible allies are the ones in charge.

That’s the friction she faces in a tense GOP primary faceoff with Army veteran Matt Strickland, a lockdown-defying grilled-cheese restaurateur with his own striking political origin story and a tough-talking campaign slogan — “crush the establishment” — that he says is targeted toward Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) as much as Durant herself.

The Republicans will certainly be deciding who’s an insider and who’s an outsider on Tuesday. But this coming November, the party’s nominee may well struggle with whether the Republican brand has become too extreme for the nominee to win the 27th District Senate race.

Especially if that candidate is Tuesday’s favorite to win - Tara Durant - who is riding Youngkin’s coattails and engaging in a nasty primary with MAGA favorite Matt Strickland.

A Community-oriented, Kitchen-Table Republican

In an interview with F2S last week, Durant talked about her campaign by celebrating her legislative victories, and her ability to work within the community and across party lines.

Referring to her just-completed term in the General Assembly, Durant said, “My term was shaped by Kitchen Table issues. That’s still my path forward.”

Durant points proudly to the six bills that she got through the House this year. Among the ones she highlighted:

• HB 1942, a tax transparency bill that she worked with Stafford’s Commissioner of the Revenue Scott Mayausky to pass.

• HB 1945, a bill that “Removes the requirement that the Department of Behavioral Health and Developmental Services collect certain data relating to children and adolescents from each community policy and management team and each community services board or behavioral health authority.”

Beyond legislation, she points to the “relationships I’ve formed with Fredericksburg and Spotsylvania,” especially with “school funding.”

With Durant’s support, Fredericksburg City Schools earned 10% of the construction costs for the new middle school. Durant is working now on a move that would elevate what the district receives to “20%, if the budget allows for it.” She describes herself on this topic as “cautiously optimistic.”

This record of success, she says, makes clear that she’s “a good advocate for our community.”

Some of her recent mailers, however, have taken a harder tack to the right and look to appeal to MAGA-type supporters - a direct response to Matt Strickland, her opponent, who has been relentless in his negative campaigning.

In a recent piece, for example, he branded Durant a “hypocrite,” labeling her with the MAGA-curse-word-of-choice - “woke” - repeatedly. (See below.)

Durant has struck at Strickland as well, however, going after him for supposedly supporting transgender rights. (See below.)

Durant has defended this move by noting that these type ads are just a small percentage of the mailers she’s sent out.

“We’ve sent about 20 pieces of mail, and four of them have been contrast pieces,” she said. “We had to do our part to set the record straight after Strickland’s year of attack ads.”

Beyond the Kitchen Table

Durant, however, is about more than Kitchen Table issues. And that could prove problematic for the Marine wife and schoolteacher in November.

VPAP tracks the partisan shifts in each district across the Commonwealth. Based on the results from 2021, when Gov. Glenn Youngkin carried the 27th as it’s currently constructed with 53.8% of the vote, the 27th leans red. But a lot has changed since Youngkin won the district easily.

First is Youngkin’s own record, which has been long on culture war issues like parents’ rights, critical race theory, and a move to significantly limit - if not outright ban - abortion in the state.

“I’m very committed to Youngkin and this administration,” Durant says. Her campaign page reflects this.

• On parents’ rights: “Since Day One in Richmond, I have worked to advance real solutions to reverse the damage done to our students by lockdowns and stop the Left’s attempts to bring divisive, woke ideology to our classrooms.” She further notes her efforts to out students who “present as another gender.”

• On abortion: “I will continue to work with Governor Glenn Youngkin to advance a pro-life agenda that protects our most fundamental rights and provides support and resources to pregnant mothers.”

• On guns: “In the House of Delegates, I have blocked Democrats’ repeated attempts to force radical gun control policies on law-abiding Virginians.”

Those positions - which were winning ones for Youngkin in 2021, had become losing positions in November 2022. Abigail Spanberger ran on protecting a woman’s right to make her own health decisions; has consistently advocated for commonsense gun control; and been vocal in protecting those under the age 18 who identify as a gender other than the one assigned at birth.

She defeated Yesli Vega, who - like Durant - had the full backing of Youngkin.

Not only did Spanberger defeat Vega, but she nearly won Stafford County - a county Youngkin won in 2021 by some 6,000 votes. Spanberger lost Stafford by less than 200 votes.

In Spotsylvania County, where Youngkin won in 2021 by 11,000 votes, Spanberger lost by less than 4,000 votes.

And in Fredericksburg, she carried the city with 2/3s of the vote.

Further complicating the Republican position is Spotsylvania County, where the continuing deterioration of the school system under four Tea Party members and an extremist right-wing superintendent is roiling voters. The board’s chaotic leadership and insulting attitude toward parents and teachers has many projecting strong support in November for more-moderate and left-leaning candidates looking to flip the board into the hands of more-stable leadership.

In short, Durant’s pro-Youngkin positions may prove to be detrimental by the time November rolls around, if she wins on Tuesday.

Democrats betting on ‘bluer’ waters

Both Ben Litchfield and Joel Griffin are betting that the trend away from Youngkin evidenced in November 2022 is growing.

Litchfield, explaining the blue shift noted above, told F2S it’s due to simple demographics: “We are one of the fastest growing regions in the Commonwealth, and we will continue to trend bluer as that pace continues.” He continued: “I don’t know if a Tara Durant can win against a generic democrat anymore.”

Griffin ties the blue shift to the growing extremism - and untrustworthiness of national and state leaders - in the Republican Party. “On the Republican side, it boils down to the internal turmoil in the Republican Party,” he told F2S. “A Youngkin protege in Tara, and a Trump protege in Strickland. Neither one … represents what most people in Virginia represent. I wonder how, when you align yourself to people who are disingenuous, how voters are supposed to trust you?”

This synergy in thinking has allowed the Democrats to spend this run-up to the primary sharpening their policy chops and engaging in constructive debates, instead of fighting an internal war. Regardless who wins, the Democrats should come out of this primary united.

“In this Democratic race with Ben,” Griffin says, “we agree on a lot of policy issues. Where we disagree some is on how we get things done.”

And that’s what Tuesday’s Democratic primary is about. Which candidate’s approach to getting things done will appeal to voters?

Red, redder, bloody

Whoever comes out of the Republican side is going to be bloodied.

Durant, by virtue of the money she has and the governor’s endorsement, is the odds-on favorite to win the Republican nod. Also, Stafford voters make up 63% of all voters in the 27th. As a Stafford resident, Durant should have the edge there.

If she comes out on top, however, she will have some difficult choices to make.

In the days after the primary, People will be watching how hard she leans into Youngkin and the culture wars. A big victory over Strickland would suggest that Youngkin’s coattails are lengthening, and that would mean more on parents’ rights, more antiabortion rhetoric, and more anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric, as well as anti-CRT and anti-gun control language. She’ll also be able to sell herself as a person who listens to and serves the community more broadly.

And that could signal a very tough race for the Democrats in November.

A narrow victory will call into question the value of Youngkin’s endorsement. That would force her to moderate her views and appeal to more-moderate Republicans. And she’s going to have a difficult time doing that.

Don’t expect either Democrat to let Durant run away from the more-controversial positions she has taken.

“Tara was always going to campaign as a nonthreatening, concerned mom,” Litchfield said. “But because this race has gotten so ugly she really can’t do this. So her TV ad has her running as a constitutional conservative. … The dynamics have changed in a way that I think is favorable to us….”

Griffin agrees. “Independents and moderate Republicans,” he said, “want someone who can represent them and their values in November. Most people want commonsense gun reform. They want a woman’s right to choose. They want schools funded and their children safe. Republicans aren’t offering that.”

And if Strickland wins? It will send shivers down Youngkin’s spine, and energize the far-right voters who want to continue taking a wrecking ball to Spotsylvania’s school system. It could also spell trouble for the school system in Stafford if his win means MAGA Republicans will carry that energy down ballot.

But a Strickland win isn’t likely to change anything for the Democrats.

“In Stafford, [voters are] exhausted,” Litchfield said, “and tired of the Republican Party being so extreme. In Spotsylvania, they just want to talk about the School Board, and they’re exhausted with it. Lots of voters feel the Republican Party has left them.”

As for Griffin. “Matt and I have basic disagreements on our values,” he said, and “… there are independents and moderate Republicans who want someone who can represent them and their values in November.”

In short, Durant’s performance Tuesday will have a significant impact on how the Democrats run in the general election.

A large win for Durant leaves the Republican establishment feeling good heading into November, and he Democrats struggling with how hard they frame Durant as a far-right Republican.

A close win or loss, and the state Republican Party will have some soul-searching to do about how to run in November. Continue to court the MAGA crowd? Or finally put the brakes on the party’s steady lurching ever farther to the right.

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Other stories we are working to complete

• Synopses of local government board and council meetings

• The New Dominion Podcast with Dr. Gaila Sims

• In Search of the area’s Best Pizza by the Slice

• Is Spotsylvania Schools Boards Engaged in Union Busting?

• Is the Fredericksburg Region Becoming an OB/GYN Desert?

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Correction

Friday’s analysis piece “Fredericksburg’s ‘best kept secret’ is learning to live with its dynamic neighbors” incorrectly reported calling the Planning Commission to check on the meaning of “caretaker/Single family.” We meant to say the office of Community Planning and Building.

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