Money and the November 7 Election
In This Issue: There's a lot of money (relatively speaking) sloshing around local elections this year. Will it make a difference? Odds & Ends at FXBGAdvance.com
Money and the November 7 Election
by Martin Davis
Editor-in-Chief
With two weeks until Election Day, candidates and voters and media are looking for indicators of who’s ahead, who’s behind, and who’s likely to be on top come November 8.
Indicators can be hard to find for state and local elections, however.
There are polls for state level offices, but these tends to be internal and not shared with the public. If they are shared, the results, but not the raw data, are usually released.
For local elections, polling is almost nonexistent in regions like ours. In lieu of such research, however, tracking the money can offer some interesting insights.
Using data from VPAP, we’ve taken a look at the funding trends in both Spotsylvania and Stafford. A latively large amount of money is being dropped on School Board and the sheriff races in Spotsy, and the supervisor races in Stafford. Will it make a difference?
Spotsylvania - School Board
The marquee races in Spotsylvania are for control of the School Board, and for the Sheriff’s office.
For the past two years, the School Board has been under the control of the Tea Party. The question on November 7 is whether they will be allowed to cement their control, or if voters will force a different path.
With four seats up for grabs, change will come if three of the candidates who have positioned themselves as opposed to the current Tea Party majority carry their races.
According to the money race, Tea Party control is up for grabs.
In the Courtland and Livingston races, Carol Medawar (Courtland) and Megan Jackson (Livingston) are far ahead of their Tea Party contenders.
Medawar has raised nearly $17,500, as opposed to David Ross, a current Spotsylvania Board of Supervisors member, who has nothing, per VPAP.
Though on the ballot, Ross hasn’t made a serious push to win. Even his signs are recycled Board of Supervisors signs. He has name recognition in the county, but he was also beaten badly last November in his race to win the Republican Primary to face Abigail Spanberger in the 7th Congressional District race.
In Livingston, Jackson has outraised current School Board member Kirk Twigg (who’s facing a felony trial in early 2023) by a sizable amount - $16,319 vs. $9,177 for Twigg.
Well over half of Twigg’s funds ($5,175) comes from three sources: Peter Dechat, Jim Jarvis, and Lana Hansen.
Jackson’s support, on the other hand, is more broadly distributed, with no donors contributing more than $1,000.
There is a third candidate, Alex Carlson, but at just $2,004 raised, he’s far behind Jackson and Twigg.
The intrigue comes in the Chancellor and Salem districts.
In Chancellor, Belen Rodas has a slight edge over her Tea Party-favored opponent, Jordan Lynch: $9,946 vs. $7,718.
As is true in the Courtland and Livingston races, Rodas’ financial support is more diverse, with only two contributions of $1,000 each, and a range of donations in the $250 to $500 range.
Lynch’s support is unusual as almost half of his support is in-kind funding, and most all of that from the Childress Agency, a digital marketing and website group run by Greg Childress, a candidate for Spotsylvania Supervisor.
Jackson’s support, therefore, appears to broad. Lynch’s, by contrast, appears to be powered by a few key individuals and organizations.
If the money tells the tale of the tape, then, the School Board in Spotsylvania will flip.
However, in all three of the races discussed to this point there are complicating factors. And if one of the reform candidates fall, this means the balance of power rests with the Salem Race. And there, things are tight.
Chris Harris. who is favored by the Tea Party, and current School Board member Lorita Daniels are nearly tied in fundraising: $15,615 for Harris, and $15,406 for Daniels.
Harris’ campaign is heavily funded by the candidate - $8,200. Daniels’ fundraising, by contrast, is broader.
Harris hit the campaign trail early, putting up signs across the county well before most candidates. Daniels, however, has picked up the pace in that area and her name is before the voters now.
The money will provide no clear advantage to either candidate in this race.
Spotsylvania - Sheriff
The money story in the Spotsylvania Sheriff’s race is a short one.
As of September 30, incumbent Roger Harris had a war chest of $58,847 to play with. Tea Party favorite Steve Maxwell had just $1,332 on hand.
Harris has also outraised Maxwell by a substantial amount. From January 1 to September 30, Harris has raised $26,648 to Maxwell’s $13,635.
If the dollars predict the future, Harris looks to have the upper hand.
Stafford - Board of Supervisors
Three seats are up for the Board of Supervisors in Stafford County, and two look to be competitive, based on the money.
In the race for the George Washington Seat, incumbent Tom Coen has the upper hand. Since the first of the year, Coen has raised $11,476. His opponent, Deuntay Diggs, has raised $7,797.
Interestingly, Diggs has spent more overall than Coen. While Diggs has spent $6,002, Coen has spent only $3,842.
Coen has the advantage of name recognition. He has served on the Board of Supervisors since 2018. Diggs, however, is not without a following. He has established himself in the community as a deputy sheriff and community volunteer.
This race could be a nail-biter.
In the Griffis-Widewater district, incumbent Tinesha Allen looks to have the upper hand. She has garnered more than double her opponent’s, Jennifer Harper, contributions: $4,021 for Allen, and $1,950 for Allen.
The surprise in Stafford County’s Board of Supervisors race is the one playing out in the Rock Hill District. There, incumbent Crystal Vanuch, who has served on the Board since 2019, is being challenged by newcomer Howard Rudat, who’s retired from the U.S. Army and is now a small-business owner.
Rudat has total contributions that are $10,000 more than Vanuch: $24,688 for Rudat vs $14,010 for Vanuch.
The vast majority of Vanuch’s money comes from a select group of donors, including current Board members Meg Bohmke and Darrel English. Such bigger-dollar donors account for just over $11,000 of the funds Vanuch has raised.
Rudat has some $1,000 donors, but a significant chunk of his money comes from a $15,000 loan he made to himself. Take that away, and Vanuch is ahead in contributions from outside sources.
No matter how one looks at it, however, this race is shaping up to be an interesting one.
Rudat has spent nearly all of the money at his disposal - north of $22,000.
Vanuch, by contrast, has spent just a little over $7,000.
So the question becomes, will Rudat’s spend move the needle against a well-known incumbent?
The Bottom Line
The problem with looking at elections through the lens of money is that having money doesn’t always mean victory. Matt Kelly in Fredericksburg was outspent the first time that he won a seat for City Council in Fredericksburg, and Monica Gary was heavily outspent by Paul Milde the year she won her seat on the Board of Supervisors in Stafford.
Further, there are signs that the infusion of money into local elections is wearing thin on voters.
Virginia already bombards citizens with elections - we’re one of the few states that have them every year. And there’s qualitative evidence that voters are burned out.
One candidate for local office recently told the Advance that while knocking doors they were encountering people expressing their exhaustion with the door-knocking and flyers, as well as TV ads from state-level contenders.
A few people, this candidate reported, made their displeasure with endless campaigning known. “We are tired of the mailers, texts, calls, etc. Leave us alone!”
So yes, money is certainly going to pay a role.
What is less clear is whether the spends are gathering votes and moving people to the polls, or driving away voters tired of nonstop campaigning.
We’ll know the answer to that one on November 8.
Note: The FXBG Advance will be reporting the election live throughout the day and night on Tuesday, November 7. Watch for more details about how to stay on top of election results.
Odds & Ends at FXBGAdvance.com
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-Martin Davis, Editor
Another factor influencing Spotsylvania voting is the continued badgering, harassing, and the pushing of incorrect and misleading ballots at the sole early voting site. As you and others have written, voters are being given misleading sample ballots and information that contain little truth. We may never know the extent of the damage.