OPINION: Second-Wave Suburbanization Key to Spanberger Wins in Spotsylvania, Stafford
The two large counties bordering Fredericksburg realize some of the largest percentage gains for Democrats of any of the cities and counties in the Commonwealth.
By Stephen J. Farnsworth, Stephen Hanna and Ethan Sweeny
The politics of Northern Virginia have come to the Fredericksburg region with an Election Day roar.
Tuesday’s victories for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger in the long-time Republican bastions of Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, coupled with two Democratic flips in the region’s House of Delegate districts along Interstate 95 (the 64th in Stafford and the 66th district in Spotsylvania/Caroline) demonstrate that “the times they are a changin’” around here.
Four years ago, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Terry McAuliffe didn’t even come close in our region’s two largest counties, winning only 44 percent of the vote in Stafford and 39 percent of the vote in Spotsylvania. While McAuliffe did win Fredericksburg City four years ago (and what Democrat doesn’t win the city?), his 60 percent share there fell notably short of the 71 percent Spanberger received.
Spanberger’s victory was one of the largest statewide gubernatorial candidate successes in Virginia in decades, as she secured 57 percent of the vote, as compared to the 48.6 percent of the vote McAuliffe received in 2021, and the 54 percent of the vote that Ralph Northam received when he was elected governor eight years ago. Democrats appear to have won 64 seats in the House of Delegates, which represents the party’s biggest majority in decades.
Even given the very good night for Democrats across Virginia, Stafford and Spotsylvania stand out as having some of the largest percentage gains for Democrats of any of the cities and counties in the Commonwealth. As the above map shows, Spanberger gained ground everywhere when compared to the last gubernatorial election. But only a few jurisdictions in Virginia — including Henrico and Chesterfield counties in the Richmond area and Isle of Wight County in Hampton Roads — showed increases for the Democratic candidate comparable to the two counties that surround Fredericksburg.
Democratic powerhouse counties, like Arlington and Fairfax, and deep-blue cities like Alexandria and Richmond, didn’t see the gains in Democratic vote share seen in this region, in part because those areas turned heavily Democratic long ago.
It wasn’t that long ago that Republicans won all the legislative districts in our area. The G.O.P. was so dominant in the two largest local counties that candidates with Democratic loyalties hesitated even to whisper that fact when they were on the campaign trail in Stafford or Spotsylvania.
Consider the carnage for Republicans in the region on Tuesday. Del Bobby Orrock, a Republican who has represented a district south of the city since 1990, received nearly 56 percent of the vote in 2023, but only 48 percent of the vote this time. Del. Paul Milde, a Republican with a lengthy record of public service in the House of Delegates and on the Stafford County Board of Supervisors, received 54 percent of the vote two years ago, but only 47 percent of the vote this time. In Stafford County, Democrat-backed candidates took seven of eight seats contested on the county School Board or the Board of Supervisors.
So what is new in Stafford and Spotsylvania in 2025?
A key factor is the changing nature of suburbanization. Even though most voters retain their partisan loyalties year after year, county election results can change when new voters move to an area. The first wave of suburbanization, which our area experienced decades ago, often involved people leaving urban areas in search of more conservative and expansive suburban communities. But the current second wave of suburbanization is quite different – it involves people relocating in search of more affordable housing located close to major highways and mass transit. These second-wave suburban population shifts, which have been taking place in our area gradually over recent decades, are less about seeking a conservative refuge from more urban areas than they once were.
Precinct level-data provided by VPAP demonstrate that the Democratic gains were most noticeable in neighborhoods along the I-95 corridor. Western reaches of Stafford and Spotsylvania County were still reliably Republican, but the partisan advantages in the western precincts of the districts now represented by Milde and Orrock were not enough to overcome a trifecta of bad circumstances for Republican candidates this year: less-conservative electorates, an unpopular Republican president, and continuing economic anxieties made worse by a lengthy federal government shutdown that made a bad situation for Republicans even worse.
As goes Prince William, one might say, so go Stafford and Spotsylvania — at least in 2025.
Stephen J. Farnsworth is a professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington, where he directs the Center for Leadership and Media Studies. Stephen P. Hanna is a professor of geography at UMW. Ethan Sweeny is a geospatial analysis major at UMW.
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The sleazy signs calling Democrats "killers" at Salem Church Library and other locations didn't help the Republican cause with independents.
It is highly likely that Spotsylvania county will be studied carefully by both parties after this past Tuesdays apparent major shift in attitudes. We will see how this all shakes out over the next 11 months.