STATE OF THE RACE: Spanberger Looks to Be Driving Early Voting
Jay Jones' campaign will go down as one of the worst implosions in Virginia electoral history; Winsome Earle-Sears' as one of the worst ever run. Bottom line? Down-ballot elections could tilt blue.
By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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Competing polls released over the past several days show that little has changed in the gubernatorial election. Abigail Spanberger maintains a comfortable lead over her opponent, Winsome Earle-Sears. The new Sussex University poll gives Spanberger a 9-point advantage, while the new Commonwealth Poll has Spanberger up 7 points. She’s barely moved off that range since January.
Jay Jones, on the other hand, has seen his race for attorney general implode. Up by 9 points in July and 7 points in September according to the Commonwealth Poll, Jones is trailing by 3 points in the poll released last week.
Were it just his being arrested for driving 116 mph in a 70 mph speed zone, or just the text messaging scandal, Jones may have been in better shape. The combination of the two, however, has taken a toll. And last week we learned that a Special Prosecutor has been appointed to investigate the public service Jones was required to fulfill as part of his conviction for speeding.
Spanberger has handled the scandal by arguing voters will decide Jones’ fate. She didn’t select Jones to run with her on the ticket — the voters chose him from a crowded field in the June primaries. So it’s up to the voters to decide what to do with Jones in November.
Are voters in agreement with Spanberger that Jones isn’t her problem?
Since the debate, where Winsome Earle-Sears delivered a performance that amounted to little more than a temper-tantrum demanding Spanberger answer her questions about Jones, the sitting Lt. Governor has pounded Spanberger over the airwaves about the issue.
Last week’s poll numbers suggest that the campaign is falling on deaf ears, as Spanberger appears to be weathering the storm well.
The controversy certainly hasn’t affected early voting numbers, which are breaking records for turnout this year compared with 2021, the last year Virginia elected a new governor.
That turnout, however, is largely due to increased Republican early voting. Overall, Republican early-voting turnout is up significantly in Virginia, with Republican districts leading the charge.
Based on VPAP data as of Thursday, Democrats account for only 52% of Early Voting in-person turnout this year. Nearly 323,000 Democrats have turned out for Early Voting; nearly 283,000 Republicans turned out for Early Voting.
The question that deserves closer attention is this: What’s happening down-ballot? Will Republicans benefit from the focus on early voting? Or will Spanberger’s seeming unstoppable run to the Governor’s Mansion translate into a big night in November for Democrats in local and House races?
Those down-ballot elections took on new importance last week when the New York Times announced that Democrats are going to try and redistrict the commonwealth’s congressional districts to boost the number of Dems in the U.S. House of Representatives.
It’s too early to know if the redistricting issue will affect this race, but some intriguing data from Spotsylvania, Stafford and Fredericksburg seems to suggest that, at least for now, Spanberger’s coattails are holding.
Early Voting
The Advance checked with party leaders in Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania, and Stafford to see what reports they are receiving about early voting and who the turnout is favoring.
The area tends to reflect the rise in Republican voters opting to cast their ballots early, as opposed to waiting for Election Day. This is especially true in Spotsylvania and Fredericksburg.
While Republican turnout is still far below Democratic turnout in Fredericksburg, the gap between Dems and Republicans in Spotsylvania is a mere 2.2 percentage points.
But the Republican surge, interestingly, does not appear to be materializing in Stafford, where Dems hold a 14 percentage-point lead over Republicans.
Spotsylvania
Jeff Kent heads the Democratic Committee in Spotsylvania County. Pulling information from the VAN (Voter Access Network) database, he reports that as of Tuesday, Republicans have a mere 2.2 percentage points advantage over Democrats in voters in-person voting (41.8% Republican, 39.6% Democrats).
When in-person data is combined with absentee ballots (which includes mail-in ballots), Democrats have a nearly 10 percentage point lead (45% Democrats, 35.3% Republicans).
As Democrats historically have been much more likely to use Mail-in voting, the near 10-percentage-point advantage Democrats have in overall Early Voting isn’t particularly surprising.
What is notable is that Democrats are trailing Republicans by just 2.2 percentage points in in-person Early Voting numbers.
For Democratic turnout in solidly Red Spotsylvania to be as strong as it is, at a time when Republican Early Voting turnout is surging, suggests core Democratic voters are energized.
Spotsylvania features two House races with Democratic candidates in strong Republican districts.
HD 63 has incumbent Republican Phillip Scott running against Democratic candidate Forrest Miller.
Scott won this seat in 2023 as an unopposed candidate. Miller, however, has outraised Scott by $10,000 to this point.
Strong Democratic voter turnout bodes well for Miller. While Scott remains the favorite in this race, it could prove close.
HD 66 features incumbent Republican Bobby Orrock, the longest serving member of the House, against upstart Democrat Nicole Cole.
Strong in-person voting is good news for Cole, who has outraised Orrock 2-to-1 and is running television ads in her run for the seat.
As with HD 63, Orrock is the odds-on favorite to return to Richmond. But energized Democratic voters will likely make this race closer than some might suspect.
Stafford
Howard Rudat is the chair of the Stafford Democratic Committee. He noted that Stafford had received over 3,000 mail-in/absentee ballots, but he did not know what the partisan breakdown of those numbers was.
When one looks at in-person voting, however, Democrats have a 14 percentage-point advantage over Republicans.
Stafford has seen its partisan breakdown shift in recent years, with Democrats gaining ground. In 2023, Abigail Spanberger lost the county by just a couple hundred votes.
The core of Democratic strength in Stafford is along the I95 corridor, while the western part of the county tends to run strong Republican.
There are three House races that are being closely watched in Stafford.
HD65 features Democratic incumbent Joshua Cole against Republican candidate Sean Steinway.
Some 55% of the voters in this district are in Stafford. Cole holds a commanding lead over Steinway in fundraising, and has been running television spots targeting the Republican. The district is rated competitive, but Steinway is struggling to define himself and build his case. The strong Democratic turnout in Stafford benefits Cole.
The HD64 race features Republican incumbent Paul Milde against Democratic candidate Stacie Annie Carroll. Though the district is rated to lean Republican, Carroll holds a substantial lead over Milde in fundraising and has been running numerous television ads.
Finally, HD23 features Democratic incumbent Candi King running against Republican candidate James Tully. With a crushing advantage in fundraising (more than $360,000 for King vs just over $2,000 for Tully), strong Democratic turnout makes this a tough race for the Republicans to be competitive in.
Fredericksburg
Scott Vezina is chair of the Republican Committee in Fredericksburg. He notes that currently Early Voting is favoring Democrats about 65% to 35%.
Given the extreme Democratic lean in Fredericksburg, and the strong advantage Democrats currently hold in Early Voting, this is a tough ground for Republicans to compete in for state-level races.
HD65 (see above) is the sole House race that Fredericksburg residents can vote in.
However, it is notable that Republican turnout has risen significantly over the past two weeks. According to Vezina, “the Fredericksburg GOP Committee had a get out the vote campaign starting [roughly two weeks] ago where we knocked on approximately 2,800 doors across the City to get out the vote. In the first 25 days of early voting, Democrats had an approximate 68-31% advantage. In the [roughly past two weeks] since our campaign started, that advantage has shrunk to 60-40% or a +9% swing for the Republicans.”
Take Away
It’s always dangerous to read too much into projections about partisan turnout in early voting. The stats are based on past voting performance, and typically a sizeable percentage of voters can’t be identified.
What the data does seem to suggest, however, is that the combination of Jay Jones’ campaign implosion and overall dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party as a whole that is regularly showing up in national polling is not dampening Democratic energy for Spanberger.
If that’s correct and Democrats are energized for Spanberger, it could bode well for Democrats down-ballot, and give them the House again.
With control of the House and Senate, and an incoming Democratic governor, should Virginia decide to enter the redistricting fray, look for 2026 to be a heated campaign season.
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