The Game Is On ...

24 hours after polls closed, we know election fatigue is real, Trump looms large (but how large?), and striking the right message matters. Firing up voters will be no easy matter.

by Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

For those who showed up to vote on Tuesday, long lines weren’t an issue. At most polling stations, in fact, lines were often nonexistent.

According to data from the Virginia Department of Elections, both the Democratic and the Republican parties struggled to bring out people to the polls.

The obligatory primary disclaimer applies, of course. Turnout is always low, and one can’t read too much into this.

However, we are four months out from a General Election in which public interest in the upcoming presidential election is cratering, right along with people’s frustration with the two men at the top of the presidential ticket.

According to a Pew Research poll in April, “most voters say that if it were up to them, they would replace at least one of the two likely nominees (Joe Biden and Donald Trump). About half say they’d replace both Biden and Trump on the ballot.”

Younger voters, in particular, are more likely to feel this way about the two presidential candidates.

Should that level of frustration continue to grow, we could be moving to one of the lower turnouts for a presidential election in some time. That, in turn, drives down the number of people who will select the next congressman for the 7th District in the U.S. House of Representatives. It will also affect whether Senator Tim Kaine will keep his seat in the U.S. Senate for a third consecutive six-year term.

Virginia 7th Congressional District Map

The low turnout matters because in 2022 the 7th Congressional District was redrawn, and the power center shifted from the Richmond area to Prince William County, a county that Abigail Spanberger carried with nearly 68% of the vote on Election Night 2022.

Eugene Vindman, the Democratic nominee who will work to replace her, may not need to match that total, but he will need to do very well in Prince William. He will also need to hang on to the gains that Spanberger made in Stafford County (where she lost by just a few hundred votes).

If Vindman holds the ground Spanberger had in 2022, he’ll be a formidable candidate. Should he struggle in either county, however, the race becomes much tighter with “Hometown Hero” Derrick Anderson, the Republican nominee who hopes to put the 7th District back in Republican hands.

Voter energy — clearly lacking currently, based on Tuesday’s turnout — is going to be important this November. Here are the factors we’ll be watching as both candidates look to gain steam.

How Large Will Trump Loom?

In the runup to Tuesday’s primary, Trump’s hold on the Republican Party had strengthened. However, neither the pro-Trump nor the anti-Trump fever that defined the last two presidential elections seems to be as pronounced today, as then.

Scott Vezina, chairman of the Fredericksburg Republican Committee, spoke with the Advance outside of Highmark Brewery prior to Derrick Anderson’s speech about the ways in which voters are shifting.

Though he acknowledges a “lot of apathy” about the candidates running for president in November, he is seeing growing Republican energy in Fredericksburg, noting that on election day more than 40 people signed up for the Republican Committee.

Asked what’s fueling their desire to get involved in politics, it wasn’t Trump he named. Rather it was the “lack of transparency” locally over issues such as Mary’s Landing.

The frustration over this, he notes, is coming from both sides in the city.

Still, there’s no doubting that Trump’s imprint is on the candidates in this race.

In his acceptance speech, Derrick Anderson sounded themes that have become common among supporters of Donald Trump.

“Our country is the weakest it’s been since the event that drove me to run” for Congress, Anderson said. “The botched withdrawal in Afghanistan.”

He also talked about the “broken border” that’s allowing both “crime” and “fentanyl” into the country.

However, he also returned to classic kitchen-table issues, seemingly channeling Ronald Reagan when he said that “we’ve seen the cost-of-living shoot to a level that the majority of Americans cannot afford.” And that “Virginians … are paying $1,100 more a month just to live under Bidenomics.”

And when talking about America’s enemies, he notably mentioned Russia, a country that Trump has at times seemed to favor over NATO allies.

In so speaking, Anderson was clearly tapping into the difficulties American families are facing, downplaying the isolationism that defined Trump’s foreign policy, and he will almost certainly make these lynchpins of his campaign moving forward. If Trump stumbles at the top of the ticket, the economic issues will certainly help him as the General Election draws nearer.

Trump and his movement are also central to Vindman’s agenda. At his acceptance speech Tuesday night in a race that was never close, Vindman made clear early that he’s running against the “MAGA extremist agenda.”

“My grassroots movement stands against the MAGA extremist agenda,” he began. “Virginia voters are values-driven and want to elect leaders with integrity who preserve fundamental rights and freedoms and not extremists who want to ban all abortions and burn books.”

Then, before knowing the winner of the Republican race, Vindman described his would-be opponent as a MAGA extremist who wants to let “politicians ban books on the Holocaust and slavery and throw them into the fire. This candidate also wants to let MAGA politicians ban abortions with no exceptions. … That does not represent the values of this district.”

The values argument, like the economic argument for Anderson, is one that Vindman will be able to adjust as the campaign moves forward. If Trump gains strength heading into November, emphasizing Virginia values positions him for something, not just against Trump.

Which Vision of America?

Is America strong or weak? That simple question will loom large in the coming election.

For Vindman, America is clearly a nation of strength. A lesson he learned from his parents and from the military.

As a Ukranian immigrant who went on to achieve the American Dream, what matters, Vindman said in his acceptance speech, is “sticking to the same mission” — a lesson he learned in the military — regardless of the background of the person next to you. And that mission is defined by the values that have made America strong.

Anderson sees America’s greatness as something to be regained. And he also looks to his military experience, i.e. the failure in Afghanistan, to highlight that weakness.

This wasn’t the only time last night that Vindman and Anderson both pulled from the same social structures to defend their conflicting visions.

Both celebrated their rise from relatively modest roots — Vindman as an immigrant from Ukraine, Anderson as a “knucklehead from Spotsylvania County” — and credited hard-working parents who sacrificed everything to get them where they are today.

Which of these two candidate’s visions prove more compelling? How voters answer that question will have a great deal to do with who they line up behind this November. And the candidate that can convince undecided voters that their vision of America is the more accurate is going to have a significant edge. Especially if turnout is lower than in previous presidential election years.

Stand Up, Tear Down

Nearly lost in the election last night was Senator Tim Kaine, who did not face a primary challenger. So as Hung Cao was soaring to victory in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Tuesday evening, Kaine was at Curitiba rolling out his approach to the coming General Election.

Unlike Anderson and Vindman, whose campaigns are palpably affected by Trump, Kaine is bringing a more-nuanced approach. Though clearly affected by Trump, Kaine has the experience of 30 years in politics to draw on.

In describing his campaign slogan for this election, Standing Up for Virginia, he said:

“Not only in this country, but around the world right now, there’s sort of a battle joined between those who stand up and stand together, and those who tear us down and tear us apart. That tear-down energy is very, very palpable right now in the United States and around the world.”

Despite, the energy, he is leaning into what he believes is a silent majority of people who are not engaged in the tear-down mindset.

“For 30 years I’ve been listening to you …. and I fundamentally believe Virginians aren’t tear-down, negative, name-calling complainers. We are roll-up your sleeves, can-do, stand-up optimistic people.”

For most of his speech, he put the emphasis on the positive — “America is building again,” he said, referencing the infrastructure bill passed under Biden and the expansion of broadband across Virginia.

He also celebrated Virginia becoming a leader in solar energy. Citing the state’s position in the bottom half of the country in deploying wind and solar energy when he joined the U.S. Senate 12 years ago, he said that the Commonwealth has gone from “clean energy laggard to clean energy leader.” Virginia now rates in the top 10 nationwide in solar deployment.

However, low turnout on Tuesday, and apathy about the top of the ticket in February, also appeared to be on his mind.

“If Virginians participate,” he said of the November General Election, “you will choose the winner. If Virginians don’t participate, you will choose the winner.”

Who Can Find the Energy?

Between now and November, Anderson, Cao, Kaine, and Vindman will be trying to build voter energy. How much of a role Trump plays in that, how positive or negative people are about the state of the nation, and whether people believe in defending what’s working or tearing down the system will ultimately decide the outcome.

Building energy among voters right now, however, is no small task. All four candidates face an uphill challenge, if Tuesday’s numbers are any indication.

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