Thursday August 2, 2023

ANALYSIS: In the run for Senate District 27, the Dems have a shot in Spotsylvania … if they’ll take it | NEW SECTION COMING THIS SUNDAY | A NOTE ABOUT PRODUCTION

In the run for Senate District 27, the Dems have a shot in Spotsylvania … if they’ll take it

Last week, we took a look at the ticking financial time bomb that the Republicans are set to detonate across Virginia, and in high-profile races here in Central Virginia - in particular the race for Senate District 27 between Democrat Joel Griffin and Republican Tara Durant.

We concluded by noting:

… the Republicans’ giant war chest demands attention. When the Republicans detonate their well-funded PACs this fall and overrun the airwaves and mailboxes of voters, the question will be if the Democrats have the money to diffuse this timebomb with a tsunami of their own money.

While Griffin and the Dems face an uphill battle, there are pathways to victory. And at the center of many of those plans sits Spotsylvania County.

The precincts in Spotsylvania that make up the 27th aren’t a bastion of Democratic voters - Abigail Spanberger lost to Yesli Vega by significant margins in 2022.

But that election was nine months and a political lifetime ago.

Since then, the situation with the Spotsylvania School Board has gone from bad to spiraling out of control. And anecdotal evidence from canvassers knocking on doors for school board in the Courtland and Chancellor districts suggests that Spotsylvania voters are highly motivated to go to the polls this November and express their frustration with the current state of affairs on the School Board.

In short, voters are looking beyond party labels and focusing on the current School Board’s ineptitude, and they’re looking for better candidates.

Griffin has an opportunity

Bob Martin, head of the Spotsylvania Democratic Party, is convinced that the School Board dysfunction will drive up voter turnout in November.

… the school board [election] will drive up turnout for the November election. Talking with the candidates running for the school board they all relate similar stories. On the front porch voters are at first not interested in discussing the election but when they learn that the person at the door is a candidate or a canvasser for a candidate, they are very anxious to talk about the school board elections.

Jeremy Levinson, Griffin’s campaign manager, sees the same dynamic.

Without a doubt, Democrats are energized in Spotsy due to not just a great slate of candidates but also because of the Republican extremism which has reared its ugly head on the School Board. 

To successfully take advantage of a projected strong voter turnout, however, Griffin will have to convince voters likely to cross party lines to support more-stable leadership on the School Board, to also see him as a change-agent who will ultimately benefit them in Richmond and here locally.

If he can make that happen, he has an opportunity to pick up substantial support in the county. Whether enough to win the precincts that Spanberger lost in 2022 remains to be seen, but he could pick up enough to tighten the race substantially in Spotsylvania.

And according to Levinson:

Joel Griffin is dedicated to electing a strong slate of local Democrats in Spotsylvania County as he is throughout Senate District 27.

If those disgruntled with the School Board also gravitate to Griffin, and he wins Fredericksburg by as substantial margin, Griffin may then find the wiggle room in Stafford he may need to win the overall election and find himself in Richmond.

Opportunity cuts the other way for Republicans

If Griffin has an opportunity to gain votes by garnering the support of voters fed up with the school board, Tara Durant potentially faces the inverse reality.

Republicans running for School Board in SD 27 are cut from the same extremist cloth as the current School Board majority. Chris Harris (running in the Salem District) uses the same fear-mongering tactics about critical race theory, as well as social and emotional learning, on his campaign site that Moms for Liberty uses.

David Ross (running in the Courtland District) has a earned a reputation for not supporting public education while serving on the Board of Supervisors, and his Twitter feed features numerous retweets from some of the more extreme anti-public-education Republicans in the country, including Tucker Carlson and Bob Good.

If frustration with the school board continues to carry into November and voters turn against Harris and Ross, Durant - if she is seen as aligned with these candidates - could find herself losing votes.

What to watch

With school starting back and the November campaigns heating up, it will be interesting to see how much energy Griffin pours into Spotsylvania. We will also be watching whether the local Democratic Party helps fund the campaigns of those running for School Board.

The party has long tended to avoid spending too much on local races.

Nicole Cole, who sits with the minority of the School Board, tells F2S:

This year, the Democratic Party has realized it needs to allocate some funds to local elections.”

But so far, she notes, nothing has really materialized

Local leaders aren’t waiting for the party to act. The recently launched PAC Supporters of Spotsylvania Public Schools has just over $4,300 on-hand to spend, per VPAP. So local candidates should be getting some help.

We’ll also be watching to see whether Durant works to steer clear of the Republican candidates for School Board. Recent embarrassments involving Nick Ignacio and Steve Maxwell, first reported by F2S, have created a rift in the Republican Party whose fallout continues to grow.

Add in Matt Strickland’s write-in campaign for SD 27, and Durant is facing not only voters angry at a Tea-Party-fueled school board, but a Republican Party in Spotsylvania at war with itself. Does she try and unite the factions in the party in Spotsy, or steer clear?

The potential for high voter turnout in Spotsylvania could both help Griffin and hurt Durant.

Enough to turn the election in Griffin’s favor, given that at the moment many give a slight advantage to Durant? That remains to be seen.

But all eyes are going to be on the Democratic leadership in Spotsylvania over the coming months, and how much they do to convert frustrated residents voting for change to also rally around Griffin.

NEW SECTION COMING THIS SUNDAY

F2S is honored to announce that starting this Sunday, we will be featuring book reviews from some of the area’s long-standing and much-beloved book reviewers. Watch for Sunday’s issue, as we feature a review by Penny Parrish, and put a spotlight on a local author and his newest book.

A NOTE ABOUT PRODUCTION

As you may know, F2S is a labor of love launched following my leaving the Free Lance-Star. Throughout most of the summer, we’ve been able to publish daily. It is my goal to continue doing that.

However, as I am now back in the classroom, I am considering some adjustments to both the frequency and timing of the newsletter.

Starting Monday, I will be switching delivery time to 7:30 a.m. This is to give me a bit more time in the morning to work. It is my hope that this will allow me to continue publishing daily.

If further changes are required, you will be the first to know.

Thank you for reading and supporting local journalism!

This article is covered by a Creative Commons license.