Thursday July 26, 2023
ANALYSIS: Campaign 2023 leans more Democratic than most people realize
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ANALYSIS: Campaign 2023 leans more Democratic than most people realize
By David S. Kerr
Campaign 2023 in Virginia is well underway. The parties have chosen their candidates, and my social media feed is already running hot and heavy with political ads.
The National GOP would love to sweep the General Assembly. On the heels of Glen Youngkin’s victory in 2021 it would be a real feather in their cap. What’s more, there are a lot of people, individually and collectively, locally, statewide, and nationally, who have a lot riding on the outcome of our election. But while the Republicans may be confident, they should take warning, that it’s not going to be that easy.
Several publications and pundits have tried to forecast the possible outcomes. They’ve made worthy efforts. Thing is, they haven’t been able to nail this one down. One reason is that almost every candidate, thanks to court ordered redistricting, is running in a new district and a record number of districts, thanks to an unprecedented number of retirements, are open seats. This means the number of candidates who can claim the advantage of the incumbency isn’t that substantial.
Also, there are the margins involved. They’re thin. The margin in the House is a mere four votes. The Democrats flip three and they have a majority. In the Senate, they have a majority of 22 while the Republicans control 18 seats. In other words, the election in both houses is close.
The Republicans, through Governor Youngkin’s political action committee and the GOP House Caucus, have already sunk millions into these races. The House Republican Caucus PAC has targeted 12 seats as ones it believes the GOP can flip.
Like his GOP colleagues in the House, the Governor wants to hold on the House, but he is desperate to change the makeup of the one body, the State Senate, that has thwarted most of his conservative legislative agenda.
That, however, may prove heavy lifting. The number of marginal seats in the State Senate, where the outcome could go either way, is estimated by some to be as few as four.
Governor Youngkin, no surprise, isn’t simply interested in the balance of power in Richmond. If he can hold the House and swing the Senate to the Republican column, then his national stature will likely increase substantially. Virginia is a purple state. Even a blue one. And flipping the Assembly, and clearing the path for his conservative legislative initiatives, will get him noticed. Maybe even enough to make him a viable candidate for president.
But there are some big questions out there. The most recent legislative elections may not be useful predictors. The 2019 election occurred when former President Trump was in the White House – a definite motivator for Democrats – and the second occurred when Terry McAuliffe’s woefully incompetent campaign opened the door to the Republicans in the 2021 race.
However, none of this may matter because there is a new variable in the equation. One that wasn’t there during the past two statewide elections, and that’s abortion. In 2022 the US Supreme Court, in Dobbs v. Jackson, overturned the 50-year-old Roe v. Wade ruling, leaving abortion policy up to the states.
Most red states have already enacted harsh laws on abortion. Some are even trying to restrict access to abortion for their citizens should they travel out of state for the procedure, as well as trying to restrict access to so-called “morning after pills.” That’s agitated a lot of women voters.
Youngkin, for his part, and the GOP in the General Assembly, favor tough restrictions on abortion. The thing is, while this plays well with the Republican base, come November 7, it may not go down well with mainstream voters.
Particularly if the 2022 national midterm congressional elections are any guide. Abortion, and access to abortion, proved a decisive issue for the Democrats. Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) ran heavily on this issue and won the election by 2 points.
This will likely be the Democratic playbook. Indeed, it might be the only issue for the Democrats come election day. And it could well be the one thing that does what off-year elections can’t always do, and that’s turn out Democratic, Democratic-leaning, and independent voters.
Turnout is what usually dogs Democrats in off-year elections. With abortion figuring prominently, turnout for Democrats may be strong.
With so many close districts and so few seats in the balance that may be all it takes.
David Kerr is an adjunct professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University.
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