Thursday June 1, 2023

ANALYSIS: Debates, Defaults, and Drama | Juneteenth | A Special Word to Our Readers

ANALYSIS: Debates, Defaults, and Drama

Are debates worth the time? Absolutely.

Last fall, incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Republican candidate Yesli Vega didn’t disagree on policy only. They also couldn’t come to terms on a debate.

Stephen Farnsworth has traditionally hosted debates at the University of Mary Washington, and tried to organize one between the two contenders for the 7th District Congressional seat.

Vega refused, and then insulted the university and the city in the process by calling UMW a “a college campus of [Spanberger’s] base.”

Republicans historically hadn’t felt that way. Over the nearly 15 years Rep. Rob Wittman has been in office he has frequently appeared. So, too, have Republicans like Bryce Reeves, Tara Durant, and Mark Cole.

Vega then went on to dodge not one but two more debate opportunities with Spanberger.

And the problem wasn’t limited to Virginia.

In congressional and Senate races across the country, Politico, USA Today, The Hill, U.S. News & World Report, and more local news agencies than one can count were all highlighting this growing problem of Republicans not debating.

Republicans Changing the Rules

Shortly around the rise of the Tea Party in the late 2000s, bumper stickers began popping up around the Fredericksburg area and around the country that read: “I don’t trust the lying liberal media.”

The movement went largely unnoticed by both local and national media outlets. The bumper sticker represented a fringe element that didn’t portend any great influence in local or national politics. But as we learned in 2016, that fringe element wasn’t so fringe, and helped push Donald Trump into the White House.

And it’s no coincidence that Trump made the slogans “fake news” and “alternative facts” the cornerstone of his time in office. He was playing off the sentiments of what millions were buying into - the belief that the media was fundamentally stacked against them and wouldn’t give conservatives a fair shake. (And that the media totally got it wrong about how vast and deep this movement was adds some credibility to that belief.)

This movement was also the start of the movement to dodge debates.

“It’s a Republican phenomenon,” says Shaun Kenney, the former executive director of the Republican Party of Virginia and co-host of the New Dominion Podcast, “because they don’t trust the two actors in the debate - the moderators and the press.”

We saw this phenomenon in action with Vega, who conspicuously dodged interactions with any outlets that remotely smelled of being progressive. Not only wouldn’t she debate, but she refused repeated requests from me and the Free Lance-Star. And it’s arguable that that unwillingness to engage cost her a shot at the U.S. Congress.

By circling the wagons and staying inside a Republican family that is constantly tightening the circle, and booting the RINOS (Republicans in Name Only) out, Vega was cutting off constituents she may well have won over.

Oftentimes, when a party loses as badly as the Republicans did in 2022, candidates adjust. So can we expect debates to make a comeback among Republicans?

Don’t count on it. And don’t be surprised if the Dems follow suit.

Debates in Fredericksburg and Surrounding Areas

Heading into primary season, there have already been a number of candidate forums and debates in our region.

F2S recently moderated a well-attended debate for the 27th District Senate Seat between Joel Griffin and Ben Litchfield. It’s the second time the two have squared off, having previously engaged in a candidates’ forum hosted by local political gadfly - and sometimes F2S contributor - David Kerr.

On the Republican side, there have been some candidate forums in Stafford and Spotsylvania, but no formal debates.

But the debate we most wanted to see - Tara Durant vs. Matt Strickland - never materialized. This wasn’t about a mistrust of media, however. Rather, it’s about Strickland’s erratic and bombastic behavior.

One can’t really blame Durant for not stepping onto stage with a man who inferred state police officers were Nazis. Who bit Youngkin’s hand when he offered help during his business’s troubles with the ABC board. And whose campaign slogan early on was “Crush the establishment.”

“There is a maxim among Republicans,” Kenney tells F2S, “which says the whole point to a debate isn’t to win one, but not to lose one.”

Under that maxim, it’s easy to understand why Durant - with everything to lose - might not want to risk giving a candidate like Stickland - with nothing to lose - a chance to score points.

Understandable … but not good for voters.

The Case for Debates this Fall

Both because Republicans are strategically avoiding debates, and because there are real risks to getting into the ring - especially when one candidate respects social and political norms and plays by the rules, and one has no respect for guardrails or norms or democracy for that matter - are debates on the way out?

As previously noted, debates in this region are still respected, but they are on the ropes. As they are nationwide.

It’s imperative, however, that debates rebound this fall, and that voters have a number of opportunities to hear the candidates in person. Here’s why:

Proving Readiness - There is no doubting that debates are stressful. Organizers, moderators, and candidates spend weeks preparing. And for all that, there’s the real chance that someone will say the wrong thing and cost themselves the election. Lest you forgot, Democrat Terry McAuliffe almost certainly lost the 2021 gubernatorial race when he said parents have no place in dictating curriculum. This wasn’t his only mistake. He ran a poor campaign and failed to see the momentum Youngkin was building, and why. But that debate flub put a fine point on the matter. McAuliffe, for whatever reason, was simply gliding through that election. Right or wrong, politicians can ill-afford such mistakes. And if they make them in debates, how much more likely do they do it in office?

And while Durant may fear losing votes in a head-to-head matchup with Strickland, she isn’t gaining votes, either. So the primary becomes about who gets the most billboards and flyers out to the most people.

Arguably, she’s taking a greater chance by not debating Strickland. Yes, she could misstep. She could also knock him out.

We need debates to strengthen our political body. Here’s just some of the reasons we must demand that candidates meet one another on the stage this fall.

Accountability - Incumbents have a record to run on. And debates call them to account. The Spotsylvania County School Board is a case in point. For almost two years, this board has refused to talk to anyone. The people running to replace them have a right to be on stage and hold them to account. Just as the incumbents have a right to make the case they deserve another term. Candidates can rationalize away debates. It’s time voters make it clear that they will read a failure to debate as an inability, or an unwillingness, to explain their performance.

Ideas vs. Ideologues - The public square is where democracy should be at its best. It’s where people’s ideas engage, and citizens have an opportunity to decide which ideas are the best. Nationally, ideas have given way to ideologues, and it’s affecting our local politics. The truth is, had Kirk Twigg, Rabih Abuismail, April Gillespie, and Lisa Phelps been forced to debate when they first ran, the county could have avoided the mess it’s in. Their illiteracy and ignorance would have stuck out like yellow spots in snow against a capable candidate. And voters may have made better choices. When we don’t debate, the illiterate and ignorant stand a better chance of winning.

Of course, for all this to work, voters have to engage. That means putting less emphasis on social media posts and inane campaign slogans (e.g., Crush the establishment - How does one crush the establishment by running to become the establishment?).

Debates allow citizens to engage.

They require candidates to think on their feet.

And debates give citizens better grounds to make decisions.

Let’s insist debates happen this fall. And let’s punish people who dodge them denying them seats.

It’s the only way to change what is a lethal blow to democracy that Republicans have launched. And a strategy that Democrats will surely adopt if citizens permit debate-dodging to be part of a winning campaign.

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Juneteenth in Spotsylvania

Over the past decade, Juneteenth has grown in the public imagination. What was an unknown event even to many Black people 10 years ago, is now growing into a celebration that is rightfully taking its place along July 4 in the pantheon of American celebrations of freedom.

Learn more about Juneteenth and its history from this National Geographic story.

This year, one of the region’s largest celebrations will be held at the John J. Wright Educational and Cultural Center Museum in Spotsylvania County. Scan the QR code in the image above, or visit the website, to learn more and to join in the activities.

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A Special Word to Our Readers

Since leaving the Free Lance-Star in January, a great deal has happened not only in my life, but in our region’s media consumption. F2S has made remarkable jumps in readership in a very short time. We’ve begun adding staff. We’ve launched a podcast with our partner Shaun Kenney. And we are playing a major role in our local civic square through debates and promoting events such as Juneteenth.

These changes have created some unique opportunities, and we’ll have much more to say about this in coming months.

As we ramp up our work, help us spread the word about F2S by inviting a friend to join.

Our material is free to any readers who want to access it, so no one has to pay to access what we provide. We are enormously grateful to everyone who does support us, however. (And we have some plans to thank those people this summer - so watch your emails!)

Pass along this link (https://thelocalburg.substack.com/p/welcome-to-f2s), or the following QR code, and ask folks to sign up.