By Stephen J. Farnsworth, SPECIAL TO THE ADVANCE
August is a month for packing up the belongings of young adults and moving them into apartments and dorm rooms, for back-to-school sales and maybe for squeezing one more out-of-town trip into the summer calendar. A time for holding Republican primaries in Virginia? Well, not so much.
Earlier this year, Virginia voters passed a constitutional amendment to re-redraw congressional district lines, a plan subsequently invalidated by the courts. Along with that plan for new lines, lawmakers adjusted the Virginia primary calendar, moving the nomination contests from mid-June to August 4. Once the courts declared that the old lines would remain in place, some candidates had to scramble and run in the revived old congressional districts that passed legal muster. Voters also faced challenges during this later-than-usual nomination campaign season – starting with having to answer the question of which district is theirs.
Republican primary turnout fell by double digits in all three congressional districts that had competitive GOP contests this month. In the Seventh District, a purple district hugging Interstate 95 in Prince William County and the Fredericksburg area and stretching west to Orange and Culpeper counties and beyond, preliminary election statistics revealed a roughly one-third decline in Republican primary voters compared to two years ago.
The striking decline in Republican nomination turnout in the district since 2024 comes despite that fact that the Seventh represents the party’s best hopes for unseating an incumbent Democrat in Virginia’s congressional delegation. In that competitive district, incumbent Democrat Eugene Vindman faces retired U.S. Army Lt. Colonel Doug Ollivant (R).
Republican turnout was not much better in the other nomination contests. The party’s primary turnout for the Fifth Congressional District, a huge district ranging from Charlottesville south to the North Carolina line, fell by roughly 28 percent from two years ago. In the Tenth District, a Fairfax County-centered district that includes parts of Prince William and Loudoun counties, Republican turnout fell by about 30 percent when compared to 2024.
For Republicans, significant turnout declines occurred even at the statewide level. Turnout in the Republican U.S. Senate Primary, won by retired U.S. Army Major General Bert Mizusawa, fell by 13 percent when compared to the 2024 Republican U.S. Senate nomination contest, won by Hung Cao. (Cao went on to lose to Democratic incumbent Senator Tim Kaine by a ten-point margin). Mizusawa faces incumbent Senator Mark Warner (D) in November’s general election.
In addition to the potential confusion over the on-again off-again district lines and the problematic nature of this year’s unusual August primary timing, Republican turnout may also have declined due to voter frustration with President Trump, whose anemic poll numbers have softened further over economic uncertainty and the war with Iran. Trump did get the party nominees he wished in Virginia, however, a sign that most of those voters who voted Republican supported the president’s preferences.
Of course, Trump may have done more to boost Democratic turnout in Virginia than Republican participation. In the First Congressional District, which includes much of the Northern Neck and the Middle Peninsula as well as some of the Richmond suburbs, Democratic primary turnout this month doubled when compared to two years ago. Democratic primary turnout rose by roughly 40 percent in the Second District, a district focused on Hampton Roads.
Despite their legal defeats on the line-redrawing plan, Virginia Democrats are hoping that Trump’s unpopularity will undermine this fall’s prospects for Republican incumbents in those two constituencies. Supporters of the redistricting Constitutional Amendment had predicted a 10-1 Democratic margin in congressional seats if it had been in effect this year; now the party hopes to boost its current six-to-five seat advantage by winning those two districts.
While Virginia voters usually see June primaries, the Commonwealth may see another late-summer congressional nomination season again soon. If Virginia Democrats remain committed to passing the proposed redistricting constitutional amendment, the legislature can try their luck again after the 2027 Virginia legislative elections.
Some of the top Democrats in Virginia have vowed to do just that. If members of the Virginia General Assembly re-pass the redistricting amendment, and if voters back the measure a second time, expect another round of low-turnout August primaries two years from now.
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Dr. Farnsworth is professor emeritus of political science at the University of Mary Washington and the author or coauthor of nine books and dozens of research articles on U.S. and Virginia politics. His website is stephenfarnsworth.net.
Very informative and thought-full analysis. Thank you,
Professor Farnsworth and thank you in advance for publishing this!