ANALYSIS: A Local Sea Change
The Fredericksburg region is on the cusp of a generational change. The opportunities and challenges abound.
By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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Every morning, Dexter — my 100-something-pound loveable mutt — and I crawl into my car and drive to one of the many trails that are carved throughout Fredericksburg & Spotsylvania National Military Park and get lost.
Not literally — Dexter has an excellent sense of direction and knows exactly on which trails he wants to travel on any given day — but figuratively, as in lost in thought.
I look forward daily to the quiet that walk offers, as well as the freedom it provides to allow my mind to wander. The crush of daily incoming information can paralyze us and cloud our perspective. Quiet time to get lost with one’s thoughts is important for finding a path a forward.
This is especially true when writing about Virginia elections.
With the next election in Virginia always less than 12 months away, journalists, scholars, and citizens have precious little time to process the most recent vote because they’re looking to the next.
August represents the calm before the storm. The news cycle slows down, and candidates prepare for the post-Labor Day push.
It’s an opportune time as a community to think about where recent elections have brought us, and where future elections may bring us.
Governmental Finances
Our region’s economy is now tied to data centers. While pockets of resistance remain, the die is cast, and it’s incumbent upon localities to start looking to the future and embrace the economic windfall coming to (most of) the Diamond region.
On average, for every 1 million square feet of data center space built, the locality realizes some $20 million in tax receipts. Here’s what that means for our region:
Fredericksburg — Anticipated 3 million square feet of data centers totaling some $60 million in tax revenue. (2026 Annual Budget — $136.7 million)
Spotsylvania — Some 10 million square feet of data centers approved, roughly 10 million square feet pending rezoning, totaling some $200 million to $400 million in tax revenue. (2026 Annual Budget — $937.1 million)
Stafford — Roughly 10 million square feet of data centers approved, roughly 30 million square feet pending, totaling some $200 million to $800 million in tax revenue. (2026 Annual Budget — $1 billion)
Each of these localities faces significant economic challenges, as well as prospects for reduced federal funding.
Planned properly, our regions’ schools, first-responders, and social service agencies should find themselves in good standing for decades to come if this windfall is properly managed. Poor planning, however, risks financial decisions that could waste critical resources.
Their arrival was made possible by political leaders willing to see the great potential before them and vote for the future. Not that the votes have been easy or without controversy — the push for data centers has been more than a decade in the making. The centers are here now, however, and our economic future looks bright because of it.
Education
The Diamond region is well-positioned to strengthen its educational footprint and be recognized as a leader.
In higher education, Germanna Community College has become a leader in educating a highly diverse group of students. Recent advances like opening a Stafford campus, partnering with companies like Amazon to provide the education necessary for students to earn high-paying jobs in the data center sector, and being recognized nationally as an Opportunity institution position the school to boom in the coming decade.
The University of Mary Washington, which has struggled in recent years with rising tuition rates and a falling base of potential students, is showing signs of finding its footing. The new Center for AI and the Liberal Arts puts the university on the cutting edge of technology and education. And after wrestling with falling enrollment, the university looks to be finding its optimum enrollment number.
K-12 education in the region is uneven, but significant changes in recent years offer hope for the future.
For the past several years, the Spotsylvania School Board was not just destructive, but a national embarrassment. Voters two years ago made it clear that they had had enough and kicked out the most radical people, returning the Board to those who favor public education.
The transition was not easy. The new board fired Mark Taylor, appointed by the more-conservative Board, and hired Clint Mitchell. A lawsuit regarding Taylor’s firing is still in play. And the current Board, while better, is still plagued with political backbiting, though Board Chair Megan Jackson has done a good job calming the waters.
And Mitchell, the new superintendent, has brought a fresh vision for the district, completely reworking the system’s hiring process, launching a bold new initiative for supporting schools, securing desperately needed new funds from the county, and leveraging AI to empower teachers to better perform their jobs.
Stafford County has similarly acquired a new superintendent, Daniel Smith. His hire came following the sudden announcement that Thomas Taylor was leaving for Montgomery County, Maryland.
Smith has hit the ground running, smoothing out the transportation problems that have plagued the district for the past couple years, and, like Mitchell, embracing AI in bold ways to strengthen teachers.
And new initiatives and agreements are making it easier for students to find their paths forward post high school. One example is the guaranteed admission agreement the county now has with George Mason University for qualified students.
As the region’s largest school district, it looks prepped to move up in the rankings of the commonwealth’s best schools while innovating in ways that strengthen students’ paths for future success. So long as the county can find the money the schools need to grow and serve their surging student population.
Fredericksburg’s schools continue to struggle. There has been some modest improvement in SOL scores at the middle school level, but the elementary and high school levels are struggling to turn things around. This year the city opens both a new middle school and a new elementary school. Both will help with overcrowding issues and, per district leadership, should prove important for improving academic achievement.
For the district to truly improve, however, citizens are going to have to step up. A high number of uncontested school board elections since 2006 suggests parents either aren’t paying attention, or are taking their children elsewhere and leaving Fredericksburg schools to fend for itself. Either way, it’s a challenge for the district to solve.
Housing
The Diamond remains a hot market, attracting people moving to the region in search of more-affordable housing. During the population boom from 1990-2021, even though home prices climbed, this area was an attractive option.
Since COVID, however, affordability has become a major challenge. With median home prices nearing $600,000 in Stafford and King George, and hovering near $500,000 in Spotsylvania and Fredericksburg, finding a place to live is more challenging than ever.
People looking for 4-bedroom, $600,000-plus options are finding homes to choose from. Those looking for smaller, less-expensive options, are increasingly finding less to choose from.
How bad is the problem? Loisann’s Hope House, which fields calls through the Homeless Hotline, took more than 15,000 calls last year. Most of those calls were for people seeking rent and mortgage assistance.
While efforts to deal with the unhoused are much needed, we are facing a genuine crisis in housing for lower- and middle-class families. Addressing this is essential.
The answers are not hard to see; just hard to execute. More density. Much more housing of the smaller variety. This will require a lot of political will, and supervisors willing to work with developers to speedily make these homes available.
Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona are models to follow.
Sea Change
The region’s challenges and opportunities are born of the same truth — the explosive growth means that in the near future our region is going to change dramatically.
What is striking about this election is that across the localities we are seeing a surge in first-time candidates who know all-too-well the housing challenges facing those moving to the area. They also see the economic boom coming — data centers for sure, but also Kalahari in Spotsylvania, the growing defense industry, and skilled labor not associated with the federal government.
If November’s election is the start of a trend of new, younger candidates, then we are on the cusp of a generational change in leadership. Whether it comes this election, or in the coming half-decade.
When we stop for a few moments, find some quiet to process all that we see, we should feel good about these newer, younger faces.
After all, when it comes to addressing problems, or managing opportunities, ensuring the next generation of people will be there to lead is critical.
All signs are that the next generation is ready to compete for the chance to shape our collective futures.
To see all candidates for local elections, visit our candidates’ questionnaire page.
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