ANALYSIS: Are You Ready for 2025?
The race for City Council is already heating up. Will it produce firecrackers or fireworks?
By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
Forget everything you know about City Council in Fredericksburg; it could all change next November.
Will Mackintosh and Jannan Holmes won the council’s two at-large seats in 2023, infusing some new, younger voices into the city’s Council chambers. High on their agendas have been housing affordability and data centers. (Both spoke at length about housing in their interview on the New Dominion Podcast.)
Mackintosh has been outspoken in his support of data centers. Following a data center panel in September, for example, Mackintosh told the Advance: “were we to add one 2 million square foot data center, we’re talking about a potentially $35-40 million a year increase in our budget, and our budget alone is only $128 million. … we’re talking about the kinds of transformational investments in our local environment, in our schools, in our public safety … we all want.”
The rise of these new voices, however, has also come with backlash.
Of particular concern was an incident in January when Board members were caught sending text messages that appeared to criticize citizens speaking that night during public comments.
The Mary’s Landing project has also upset some citizens who argue the Council is incorrect in its opinion that the project is “by right,” and therefore can bypass a council vote to proceed.
Fredericksburg resident Anne Little, in an opinion piece for the Advance in October, framed the issue as one of respect for the citizens of Fredericksburg:
The city’s decision on the Mary’s Landing project adjacent to the old hospital has implications beyond the project itself. Most importantly it will establish whether the city is interested in listening to its residents in charting the future of the city. Thus far that is not the case.
Whether the Council continues on the trajectory it has been on this year, or is shaken off course by a significant change in leadership, will depend on the outcome of the elections this November.
Open Seats
This morning, Ward 2 representative Jon Gerlach announced via YouTube that he will not seek re-election in November. That move has started speculation about who will be rolling off, and who might be seeking to join the Council.
Ward 1 representative Jason Graham told the Advance via text today that he’s “making that decision [about running] this month. I’ll make an announcement … before the first of the year.”
The Advance has also reached out to Ward 4 representative Charlie Frye and Ward 3 representative Tim Duffy, but as of press time has not heard back.
So there will be at least one open seat in November. And the competition for it has already begun.
Anne Little, who wrote the aforementioned op-ed piece for the Advance, announced this morning that she would be seeking the Ward 2 seat.
“I am running for Ward 2 for city council in 2025,” she wrote in her announcement shared with the Advance. “I believe that our city is at a crossroads. How we balance growth while making sure the needs of our current resident are met, will determine if our city turns into a dense, crowded, expensive area like Alexandria, or we work to make sure that we maintain housing that working people can afford, and we don’t destroy the character of our city by building McMansions.”
Others being mentioned as possible candidates for City Council include Matt Rowe, an active member of the Fredericksburg Democratic Committee and current Fredericksburg School Board member. Reached by phone this afternoon, Rowe said that he has made “no decision at this time” about running, and that he is “focused on the School Board for the year ahead.”
Matt Kelly, a former long-serving Council member, has also been mentioned as a possible candidate. He told the Advance via text this afternoon that the “November election [is] not front and center at the moment.”
Firecrackers or Fireworks?
Should Gerlach be the only council member not to seek re-election, expect the City Council to continue its work — especially in the areas of housing and data centers — into 2026 and beyond.
The race for Ward 2 will still certainly be interesting, depending on who runs against Little. Expect firecrackers. Fun to watch, but don’t expect the direction of the Council to change.
Should two or more of the other seats come open, however, the race this coming November could shape up to be a fireworks show to watch. Depending on who comes out ahead, the course of the Council could change.
That would make it one of the more-interesting races in recent memory in the city.
Stay with the Advance throughout the year ahead.
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