ANALYSIS: Early Voting Starts Today with Many Unknowns Ahead
But at the moment, the Republican candidate for governor is seeing warning lights flashing all around her.
By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
Email Martin
Early voting begins today and will run for nearly seven weeks.
In the race for governor, a new poll by the Wason Center reveals both parties lining up near-lockstep behind the candidate bearing their party’s badge. Fully 91% of Republicans stand with Winsome Earle-Sears, while 95% of Democrats are behind Abigail Spanberger.
However, Spanberger’s lead is 12 percentage points — 52% for Spanberger vs. 40% for Earle-Sears
The independents are swinging hard Spanberger’s way, meaning there are flashing warning lights for the Republican Party’s candidate.
The Wason Center poll shows independent voters breaking for Spanberger 55% to 32% — a yawning 23 percentage point gap. The former congresswoman also carries Black voters 85% to 6% — a 79 percentage point gap. Finally, women are in for Spanberger by 58% to 33% — a 25 percentage point gap.
The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3.9, meaning Spanberger appears to be tightly in control of this race.
A fair rebuttal to the argument that this is Spanberger’s race to lose is that this is only one poll. However, Spanberger has consistently held a roughly 7 percentage point lead across all polling done thus far.
More worrisome for Earle-Sears and the Republicans — and beneficial to Spanberger — might be what is happening on the national level.
Outsized Influence
President Donald Trump is going to play a significant role in this race because Trump is such an outsized personality. Right now, that’s bad news for Earle-Sears.
The latest YouGov/Economist poll shows Trump’s overall approval numbers tanking — he is currently lower than he was at the same point in his first term, and lower than Biden at the same point in his term.
Interestingly, Trump’s approval/disapproval numbers among voter subsets are similar to the voting margins showing up in the Wason Center poll.
Black Voters
84% of Black voters in the YouGov/Economist poll disapprove of Trump, while just 11% approve. That’s a 73-point gap.
Among Black voters surveyed in the Wason Center poll, 85% support Spanberger, just 6% support Earle-Sears. That’s a 79-point gap.
Independent Voters
The YouGov/Economist poll shows 64% of Independents — the group that gave Trump the victory in 2024 — disapprove of Trump. Just 28% approve of Trump. A 36-point gap. This marks a significant shift from the 2024 election, when Trump got as many votes from Independents as did Harris.
In the Wason Center poll, 55% of independents side with Spanberger, 32% stand with Earle-Sears. A 23-point gap.
The Wason Center poll did not provide data for Hispanic voters. The YouGov/Economist poll, however, shows these voters leaning more heavily against Trump. Some 65% of Hispanics surveyed disapprove of Trump, 33% approve. That’s a 32-point gap.
In 2024, Hispanics went for Harris, but only 51 to 48. A meager 3-point margin.
Hispanics, it appears, are not just turning on Trump, they’re fleeing.
Uncertain Road Ahead
While things are going Spanberger’s way, there are a lot of what-ifs to play out over the next seven or so weeks.
Most worrying is the prospect — yet again — of a government shutdown. If it happens, the educated money says that Democrats get the blame.
That may not be the case, however. Voters are souring on Trump’s handling of the economy. The YouGov/Economist poll shows Trump’s approval level for handling the economy is deep in the red at -34%. And his declining approval numbers in other areas suggest that the Democrats may gain traction with the idea that the government needs to be shut down in order to rein the president in.
If that happens, this race could effectively be over.
If Democrats take the blame, however, the race could tighten. And if that happens, November 4 could prove to be a longer night than many expect.
The other wildcard is the ongoing fallout from the Charlie Kirk assassination. While it has certainly strengthened the resolve of solid Republicans, Trump’s moves to silence speech he doesn’t like — most recently, Jimmy Kimmel — is having the same effect on Democrats.
As a party with a long history of its voters approaching elections with a laissez-faire attitude, the threats against news organizations, nonprofits, and government leaders who dare question Trump is energizing Democrats to fight back.
In multiple conversations with local Democrats since the Kirk murder, the squelching of free speech is a topic that has surfaced repeatedly.
Every vote matters, of course.
But this year, early votes may prove especially important as the threat of a government shutdown and suppression of free speech could affect how people vote if they wait until November.
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Couple of things.
Explain to me, like you would a Kindergartner, how it is supposed to be the Democrats fault if the federal government shuts down, if Republicans control the House, the Senate, the Presidency, the Supreme Court, and now the air waves?
I'm interested.
Now will Republicans TRY to blame anyone but themselves for the sh**show they have created - destroying generations of trust from the world in our honor, creditworthiness, decency, commitment to democracy and rule of law?
While folks like you make it a point to not say otherwise - for whatever reasons you tell yourself, even though you know better?
Oh absolutely.
One thing you can count on from the party that worships a morally bankrupt convicted felon grifter is that.
And that their blind cult will gobble it up like candy. And they won't hear different from you, will they? You can take that to the bank.
But it doesn't make it so.
As they have shown with their unlawful deportations, firings of employees for cause, gutting of citizen protections and watchdogs, shakedowns of universities and law firms, and the myriad of things I'm certain I've left out there is no limit they recognize in their reign of terror.
But it doesn't make it so, no matter how much folks like you look away.
Be comforted though, for while other members of the 4th estate are suffering or fighting for their freedom, and as an extension - the freedom of us all; I'd say there's little danger of them calling for this complaisant forum to be shut down.
You should be very, very safe. Just keep your head down like you've been doing.
Not sure that's a compliment, though.
Adele or Donnie might want to be a little nervous, but I'd say you'll be fine.
Second, why do you insist that all of these actions are from 1 addled old man and not the systemic actions of a party/people intent and working to strip rights from anyone not part of their group?
They even wrote a book explaining their plan to do exactly what they are doing.
Why not give them the "credit" they are entitled to?
This is Republicans doing, not Trump. A group, an organization, a party, a religion. He's merely a figurehead.
It's not one miserable, vengeful, attention-needy, degenerate. But the cult who holds him up as their god and king. And insists that we all must also do the same.
The margin in the House is razor thin. So these actions cannot happen without the Robb Wittmans, Ben Clines, etc voting accordingly. Or not voting, if that is to their benefit.
As the atrocities and outrages continue, their silence has been deafening.
Yet they do not, nor cannot do that without the Tara Durants, Englishes, Cantrells, Diggs, Youngkins, Miyares, Kenneys accepting it.
Or for that matter, the "non-partisan" editors who provide them political cover.
As found here. All in the name of comity and "non-partisanship".
If "non-partisanship" means disavowing the basic premise of this country as found in the Declaration that
" We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness....."
then in my mind, you can keep it.
Either all have value, or none have value. Can't have it both ways, though Lord knows you're trying.
Reminds me of that quote from Biship Tutu,
If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor. If an elephant has its foot on the tail of a mouse and you say that you are neutral, the mouse will not appreciate your neutrality.
It's been interesting to me to see so many folks that insist that if they had been alive in the 1860's, they would have been on the side of the Angels regarding slavery, or in the 1770's would have stood up to the power of Kings for their civil liberties - no matter the risk.
Yet these same folk have remained strangely silent in face of the trials of our own day as atrocities occur before them.
Easier to do in word than it is in deed, eh?
These are our challenges, these are our trials. We may not have wanted them, but they are here.
What will you do?
One day, your children's children will want to know.
What will you say?
Early voting is the way to go! No lines, no stress, no rushing. And you will get fewer to none of the political mailers that clog the mail box. The texts and phone calls should even dry up! And, this chilling reminder from the piece above: "But this year, early votes may prove especially important as the threat of a government shutdown and suppression of free speech could affect how people vote if they wait until November."
Voting in an non-presidential year election is easy to overlook, but local and state government, and the people we elect to manage them, are critical to our daily lives. It only takes a few minutes (and mail in voting is even easier!).