ANALYSIS: How Does Growth Occur? ...
In Planning District 16, the change in population across the region is uneven, and driven by radically different factors.
By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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New data shows that Planning District 16 is the fastest-growing region in Virginia by percent-change from 2020 to 2024. And it’s the fourth-fastest growing region in terms of raw data.
Population in PD 16 grew by 6.5%, according to a press release on Thursday from the George Washington Regional Commission. Total growth by number of people is 24,861.
That growth is not evenly distributed, however, among the counties and localities that make up PD 16 — Caroline, King George, Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania, and Stafford.
The above chart shows that both Spotsylvania and Stafford Counties are driving the growth in our region in terms of total population. On a percentage basis, however, neither is growing as quickly as Caroline County, which has seen its population surge by 9.3%
But these numbers tell only part of the story. The localities in PD 16 are growing in vastly different ways.
Weldon Cooper divides population growth into two categories. The first is the number of individuals migrating into a locality. The second is the number of births minus the number of deaths.
Caroline County in particular, but also King George and Spotsylvania are seeing their growth being pushed by migration into those counties.
In King George, 78% of growth is due to migration; in Spotsylvania it’s 81%; and in Caroline it’s an astounding 97.4%
Who is moving in is not addressed in the report, but Chip Boyles, executive director of GWRC, tells the Advance that “We think Caroline is getting push from Northern Virginia and Richmond.”
People are coming, he speculates, because Caroline is the more affordable option. It’s also the same type of migration that grew Spotsylvania and Stafford at the turn of the millennium.
In Stafford County, migration accounts for the majority of the growth (66%), but fully 34% is being driven by births.
What of Fredericksburg?
Fredericksburg is an outlier in the report.
The Weldon Cooper report shows a growth of only 47 people in the city from 2020 to July 2024.
The report also reveals that people are not moving to Fredericksburg, but out of the city. According to Weldon Cooper, the city between 2020 and July 2024 realized a net population loss of 581 people.
That number, however, comes with a caveat.
According to Boyles, “Weldon Cooper only accommodates a handful of college towns for adjusting to the student population. And Fredericksburg is not one of those towns.”
He continues, that for that reason, “We’re almost sure the 2020 census was undercounted because the pandemic was underway.”
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