DONNIE JOHNSTON: Winter Weather Predictions
Get out your calendars to record Donnie's precipitation predictions, "which over the past 40 years have been about 85 percent accurate."
By Donnie Johnston
COLUMNIST
Fall weather arrived about two weeks early this year (Canaan Valley in West Virginia got down to 28 degrees last week) and many snow lovers are wondering if that is a sign of things to come.
Will there be an early winter? Will it be a cold winter? Will there be tons of snow?
Well, Nostradonnimus (also known by his Indian name, Two Mules), the guru of winter weather predictions, has looked into his cauldron of bubbling lard and made an attempt to ascertain just what lies ahead between Thanksgiving and Easter.
I have studied the trees and the weeds and watched the animals prepare for cold weather and done everything short of attaching thongs to my chest to try to find out what the Great Spirit has in store for us.
Now this Chippewa comes down from the mountain following my latest sun dance to make my predictions, which over the past 40 years have been about 85 percent accurate.
It was a bountiful growing season, which some say is an indication that it will be a tough winter. Nature always feels the need to provide stores for her wards during the cold and dreary months ahead.
The corn was as high as an elephant’s eye, not only in Oklahoma, but in almost every state that produces this grain. That’s a sure sign of a snowy winter.
Most black walnut trees are so loaded with nuts that the limbs are breaking. Squirrels will have plenty of food during the cold months.
Acorns and hickory nuts? Only modest crops. That makes me feel that it will not be a terrible winter.
Still, all the signs point to the fact that this winter will be worse than last year, which was a little above average in snowfall (I recorded about 20 inches) and about average as far as temperature is concerned (two nights the lows were down in the low single digits).
In our area we usually get two or three relatively bad winters in a row followed by seven or eight mild ones.
We are just too close to the ocean and too low in altitude to get the harsh winter weather of West Virginia and Western Pennsylvania.
And that ocean influence often determines whether winter precipitation will be rain, snow or ice. Most of the time it is a tricky forecast, even as far west as the Shenandoah Valley, and the precipitation I am predicting could be either liquid or frozen.
But while that ocean influence can cause snow lovers to cry, it can also bring joy to their hearts. Nor’easters can drag moisture in from the Atlantic and bring blizzards to our area. But the conditions must be just right, and they were not last winter. We had one 10-inch snow, but the monsters stayed hidden. This year may be different.
Weather, for whatever reason, is repetitive, and, among other factors, I have gone back over the patterns of the past 10 years to put together this forecast.
All that said, let’s you and me and Shirley Ellis get right down to the real nitty gritty.
We have had measurable snow as early as October 10 (three inches in 1979), but November 10-12 is usually seen as our first real opportunity. Almost every year there is precipitation during that period.
Usually it is rain, but a couple of times we have had snow, including the Veterans Day storm of 1987.
November 24-26 is also a period to watch and Thanksgiving snowstorms have prevented us from getting to Grandma’s house several years.
There are three periods in December that bear watching: December 1-3, December 9-11, and December 15-18. The most critical is that 9-11 slot and I suspect we might get our first measurable snow then.
December 15-18 tends to be more icy than snowy, but we got dumped on during that period in 2009 so don’t let your guard down.
A white Christmas? These nostalgic events occur in New England, not Central and Northern Virginia.
We have also had some noteworthy snowstorms around December 31, but the first two weeks of January provide our two best chances. January 3-6 is always a good time for snow (like last year and in 1996), but this year I think the biggie will come January 9-11, another one of those traditional precipitation periods. I expect at least a foot out of this one.
There is usually an ice storm around January 17-20 so I’d make sure there was plenty of gas for the generator that week.
January 31-February 3 has featured some big storms over the years, as has February 6-8. I think we’re going to get about eight inches during the former period with maybe a dusting during the latter.
Watch out for February 10-13! Even if we get a big one in early January, I have a sneaking suspicion that a monster Nor’easter is going to come up the coast around Lincoln’s birthday. Again, this is one of those periods that produces precipitation virtually every winter.
We could also get some snow—not much—around Washington’s birthday (February 22-25), but that should put an end to winter. We usually get some snow in March (March 5-9 and around March 15 are key dates), but more often we deal with rain and mud that month.
We have, however, had as much as three inches of snow on the ground as late as April 15 (1983) and I have seen it flurry on May 10.
How much snow? West of Interstate 95, I‘m going with 25-35 inches. East of Fredericksburg, 15-20 inches. School days missed? I’ll say 15. Days with snow on the ground? About 20-35, depending on which side of the interstate you live.
Will I be right or wrong? Time will tell.
But just remember, Two Mules is Indian and Indians know these things.
Make sure the flaps on your teepee are in good order, that you have plenty of pemmican and that the buffalo chips piled high. You and me and the groundhogs—which are already fat and sleek—could be hibernating a long time.
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