ENVIRONMENTAL CENTS: Hot Weather Ahead?
A "Super El Nino" weather pattern may cause plenty of heat and rain.
By Bruce Saller
COLUMNIST
We had the hottest year locally and globally in 2024, the last time there was an “El Nino” event. An El Nino occurs when the tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperature is 0.9 degrees hotter than average for at least seven consecutive months.
A La Nina occurs when the temperature is 0.9 degrees cooler.
These conditions are categorized based on the highest or lowest average temperature for five consecutive months. There are four sub-groups:
Weak: temperature difference 0.9 to 1.7 degrees
Moderate: temperature difference 1.8 to 2.6 degrees
Strong: temperature difference 2.7 to 3.5 degrees
Very Strong: temperature difference greater than 3.6 degrees
The 2024 El Nino was near the top end of the Moderate range, and the La Nina that recently ended was Weak. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicts there is a high chance that a very strong El Nino (also called “Super El Nino”) will develop later this year and last through 2027.
The last very strong El Nino occurred in 2016, and that year was the hottest on record until 2024. It is expected that 2027 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year. (Locally, June and July 2024 were 4 degrees hotter than average. Remember all those 95+ degree days?)
There may be a silver lining for our area with the Super El Nino. We had a lot of wet months in 2024, and hopefully that will repeat and end our long drought. (The area has only received 35% of its average rainfall since last August).
So be prepared for hot and hopefully wet weather through 2027.
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