FROM THE EDITOR: A Shutdown at Midnight Would Be Different from Previous Events
Local leaders say that while a short shutdown could be managed, a longer shutdown coupled with mass federal firings could prove damaging to Virginia's and its localities' economies.
By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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As the clock ticks toward the witching hour and a government shutdown looms, there are lots of questions about how it would impact Virginia. The answer depends on the lens one observes the shutdown through — statewide, local, or personal—and the length of time a shutdown might drag on.
Locally, the impact will start with federal workers and could eventual trickle up to local governments and nonprofits. At the state level, any shutdown will be measured in political costs as the November election heats up.
Job Cuts Could Create Long-term Damage to Localities
The most immediate impacts of a shutdown would be absorbed by government employees and active-duty military personnel who would see their paychecks stop during a shutdown.
Those without reserves could face a tough kitchen-table budget if the shutdown drags on more than a couple weeks. It’s also challenging for these people personally.
Framing lost paychecks in purely financial terms “does not speak to the human cost,” Stafford’s Commissioner of the Revenue Scott Mayausky told the Advance. In particular, “the stress caused by the uncertainty of a government shutdown.”
While government employees certainly feel the pain a shutdown causes, localities are affected more slowly.
“From a financial standpoint,” Mayausky said, “shutdowns don’t seem to have much effect on the local economy. They tend to be short-term events. Even if it results in a slowdown in consumer spending, we should see a bounce back as the holiday seasons approach.”
Spotsylvania County echoed that thought in an email to the Advance. A short-term shutdown could create “Minor delays in federal reimbursements and program operations … with limited impact if resolved quickly.”
Essential services, the email continued, “including public safety, education and core local operations will continue.”
However, Spotsylvania County Administrator Ed Petrovitch said, “The longer a shutdown continues, the more challenging it becomes for local governments to manage delayed federal funding while protecting the programs our residents rely upon.”
This would be particularly true, Mayausky said, if the OMB moves forward with large reductions in the federal workforce.
“Large layoffs,” Mayausky said, “are a different story. Those could have negative effects on the housing, market and consumption taxes, such as sales and meals.”
Stafford, he noted, didn’t realize “much impact … from the first round of DOGE cuts.” Mass firings this time, however, could “impact multiple revenue streams,” Mayausky said.
The impacts of that, especially in Stafford, Mayausky says, “could be devastating” because “Stafford’s revenues are in a very precarious position.”
Curry Roberts, executive director of the Fredericksburg Regional Alliance, shares Mayausky’s and Petrovich’s concerns. “Any lengthy shut down where federal employees and contractors don’t get paid will definitely have a negative impact on our regional economy. With King George having the 2nd highest percentage of federal workers in their civilian workforce and Stafford the 6th highest, losing those workers’ buying power will clearly be a drain for our business community.”
Local nonprofits are also susceptible should a federal shutdown become protracted.
Dan Maher, CEO of the Fredericksburg Area Food Bank told the Advance that a prolonged shutdown could potentially be felt in three areas.
The first are the monthly food orders from the government. Because these orders tend to be delivered on different days each month, a brief shutdown may not prevent October’s month’s shipment from arriving. A longer shutdown, however, “would be more impactful,” Maher said.
A second area of concern could be the distribution of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits. As with food orders, a prolonged shutdown would be more damaging for SNAP beneficiaries.
Maher told the Advance that it looks like “SNAP benefits would be loaded to recipients’ EBT cards through at least October and likely beyond until appropriated funding may be exhausted should a lengthy shutdown cause that to happen.”
Finally, there is the issues of administrative dollars the food bank receives with federal commodities. These dollars are delivered “when we received federal commodities,” Maher said, and are used to “underwrite our costs for distribution and general operations.”
Political Lines
Who gets the blame for a shutdown is a political parlor game that has little to do with the shutdown itself and everything to do with positioning for the next election. That is what played out Sunday on the talk shows. (Read the back-and-forth on Meet the Press between Sen. John Thune [R-SD] and Sen. Chuck Schumer [D-NY] over who might own a potential shutdown.)
Ultimately, the public will decide who they feel is most to blame — Republicans or Democrats. What the public decides nationally, however, may not be the way Virginia goes.
A government shutdown would likely hit the Old Dominion State hard — especially our region. A shutdown means lost paychecks for federal employees in the short run. They usually recover these lost paychecks when the shutdown ends, but that’s not guaranteed.
The OMB threat, however, raises the stakes significantly. If the government follows through with those firings, Republicans will have a more-difficult time convincing Virginians a shutdown was the right play.
Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic candidate for governor who has consistently held about a 7-point lead in polling, is leaning into that message. She told The Hill recently that she sees the shutdown as just a continuation of the Trump administration’s ongoing assault on a functioning government that will have devastating impacts on Virginians’ lives.
“Given the impact of the tariffs, the impact of DOGE, the impending impact of the so-called ‘one big, beautiful bill,’ I as a candidate for governor am focused on the fact that a government shutdown is just one additional element that will create and continue to create dire circumstances for so many Virginians.”
As of this article’s publication, Winsome Earle-Sears, the Republican candidate for governor, has been relatively quiet about a possible shutdown. Her comments caught on tape in April, however, about federal job cuts by the Department of Government Efficiency being overblown by the media did not sit well with many in the state.
If OMB moves forward with large numbers of firings, Earle-Sears’ apparent lack of concern for federal workers could prove a blow to her support that may prove difficult, if not impossible, to recover from.
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