FROM THE EDITOR: An Election Year Like No Other
Races in Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas may provide clues not only to where the national Democratic and Republican parties are headed, but how deep moderate Dems' power runs.
By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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The past two Novembers have left voters in Virginia with whiplash.
Donald Trump’s re-taking the White House in 2024 was a shock to the system — both for those who saw in his ascent the ultimate vindication of his first presidency and a greenlight to push his “America First” agenda; and for those who hoped that Kamala Harris might be able to recapture some of the magic from the Obama years and put an end to the nativism that has defined the right’s resurgence.
By the end of election night 2024, it looked like the Democrats were in for a long exile.
Twelve months later, the picture had flipped. Trump’s overly aggressive deportation efforts, the imposition of tariffs that have both strained American consumers and forced re-alignments of world trade, and his slashing the federal workforce gave the Democrats all they needed. Abigail Spanberger breezed to the Governor’s Mansion, as did her friend Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey. So complete was the Blue Wave that even Jay Jones overcame an embarrassing scandal to become the state Attorney General.
By the end of election night 2025, it looked like the Republicans were the ones headed for exile.
Tonight’s primaries in Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas will go a long way in telling us just how deep Democrats’ inroads in Virginia and New Jersey have spread across the country.
This all has implications for Virginia.
Early voting for Virginia’s redistricting referendum begins Friday — a strong showing by more-extreme Democrats could energize those in Virginia pushing to pass the redistricting referendum. So, too, a good night by Trump-backed candidates in Republican primaries.
And if more-moderate voices prevail? On the Democratic side it would mean that Zohran Mamdani’s win in New York is more reflective of the mood in New York City than a harbinger of where the national party is headed. And on the Republican side, it would mark a serious blow to Trump’s power, suggesting that the growing factions against him portend rough days ahead for the president. If Trump’s candidates have a bad night, Republicans Ollivant and Durant may have more breathing room to stake out their campaigns on their own terms.
A good night for moderate Democrats would also affirm that Spanberger’s more-moderate platform will have staying power — at least for the balance of the year.
And for Republican congressional candidates Doug Ollivant and State Sen. Tara Durant, a bad night for Trump-backed candidates gives them some cover to come out from under his shadow and run their own campaigns.
Here is what the Advance will be watching:
Arkansas
Don’t look for shocking news out of Arkansas tonight.
On the Senate side, currently Republican Sen. Tom Cotton is a fundraising juggernaut and generally supports Donald Trump, most recently backing Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran. His two opponents offer little by way of contrast to Cotton. Jeb Little, like Cotton, is a vet and touts is faith bona fides. And Micah Ashby argues that Cotton has “failed” the state’s citizens, but says precious little about how.
Trump won the state with 64% of the vote in 2024, so the thought that Democrats have a shot at either the senate seat of the gubernatorial seat is wishful thinking. Sarah Huckabee, the current Republican governor, is running unopposed and has stayed above 50% in approval ratings since last winning office.
So why should Virginians pay attention?
Trump’s chaotic leadership style and a splintering of his coalition could drive down Republican turnout today, and drive up Democratic turnout. Though unlikely to win, a strong Democratic turnout would offer insight into how fractured the Republican Party really is.
North Carolina
The race for U.S. Senate is the one to watch. Republican Tom Tillis, who has become critical of Trump and especially Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, decided not to seek re-election this year.
Trump carried the Tarheel State in 2024, but just barely — winning 50.9% of the vote. The statehouse is notoriously gerrymandered, which has given Republicans control of state government even though the state itself is considerably more progressive both in operation and in the makeup of its citizenry.
The Republican primary features three candidates, none a critic of the president. Michael Whatley has Trump’s endorsement, but with the president’s approval rating sinking, we will be watching to see if that endorsement is more help or hinderance.
His two opponents, are even further to the right of Whatley. Donald Brown wants to significantly slash the federal deficit, embraces a more-aggressive DOGE, and is bullish on Israel. Michele Morrow previously lost her election to run the state Department of Education. In addition to calling schools “indoctrination centers,” she appeared in a video outside the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and has promoted numerous conspiracy theories. She also “called for the public execution of former President Barack Obama — something that Obama himself referenced in a Charlotte speech last year.”
On the Democratic side, former Gov. Roy Cooper is unlikely to be seriously challenged. A moderate in the mold of Spanberger, Cooper should walk-away with tonight’s election.
Texas
As in North Carolina, the Senate race is the one to watch.
On the Democratic side, James Talarico is running against Jasmine Crockett. It is tempting to paint this race as a progressive Democrat (Crockett) vs a moderate Democrat (Talarico). But that is a deeply flawed reading of these two candidates.
Crockett’s policy positions read more like they were pulled from the pages of Spanberger’s campaign — “affordability” tops her agenda — while Talarico leans harder left in some areas.
The difference, as New York Times writer Nick Cohn has noted, is more about style:
Crockett vs. Talarico is not an ideological fight like Sanders vs. Biden in 2020, or Mamdani vs. Cuomo in New York last year. Ms. Crockett is not a socialist; Mr. Talarico is not necessarily a moderate. In fact, several polls show Mr. Talarico fares best among liberals, while Ms. Crockett fares better among moderates and conservatives. The candidates differ in important ways, but it’s not clear that ideology is one of them.
On the Republican side, incumbent John Cornyn is in the fight of his life against Ken Paxton, a scandal-ridden candidate who appeals to the most aggrieved portions of Trump’s base.
Trump isn’t endorsing anyone in this race. Whether he genuinely likes the two top contenders, or knows that the race is close and doesn’t want to risk siding with the loser, isn’t known.
That fact alone, however, points to a relative weakening in Trump’s position in Texas.
The Bottom Line
If Trump’s candidates stumble in any significant way, it would be a blow to the White House and a jolt for Democrats looking to rack up big victories in the House the fall and potentially — though unlikely — to win the Senate. And the Republican infighting, already burning white hot, could get worse. Especially if Iran turns into a quagmire and the economic situation — gas prices, food prices, inflation — gets worse.
For the Democrats, moderates look to have the upper hand, though who comes out of the Texas race will be a bit of a wild-card and that person will be under pressure to define where they stand relatively quickly.
A good night for moderate Democrats means Virginia’s and New Jersey’s governors’ races in 2025 were no fluke. And it could strengthen Spanberger’s hand in the state moving ahead.
A win for more-extreme Democrats, though unlikely, would be a shock both nationally and here in the state.
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