By Jay Brock
GUEST WRITER
It was 1980. The bumper stickers were everywhere around the Fredericksburg area:
“Don’t Fairfax Fredericksburg.”
As in, “To Fairfax:” to transform a small pleasant city of less than 20,000 residents surrounded by gently rolling green countryside, both wooded and farmland, into a sprawling, over-developed, over-built, over-crowded, over-trafficked, over-noisy, over-congested, over-priced, over-taxed extension of a major metropolitan area, largely against the wishes of most of the city’s residents—and not a few residents of the two surrounding counties, Spotsylvania and Stafford—and to do so without adequate transportation infrastructure, and such that the overall quality of life is remarkably reduced.
In 1980, Fredericksburg, Stafford and Spotsylvania’s population was 90,000. Last year it was 350,000. Including King George and Caroline counties (thus encompassing Planning District 16) makes the population 400,000—which is expected to reach a half-million by 2040.
That expectation seems conservative. Let’s focus on population growth.
Successive boards of supervisors of Stafford and Spotsylvania counties seem determined to squeeze more and more people into the region. In the counties, there has been a remarkable profusion of both single family home subdivisions as well as numerous low-rise apartment and townhouse (“townhome”) developments.
Unfortunately, these are developed in such a way that new residents must have a vehicle—few if any services are within walking distance. This generates more traffic in a region where excess traffic is already the #1 concern for most residents.
It’s pretty much the same in the city, where officials talk about the need to “calm traffic,” and City Council members, decrying the lack of affordable housing, are intent on greatly increasing the number of city residents. So the city is getting a multitude of new apartments, and comparatively fewer private homes—though, given the current hot real estate market in the area, neither are very affordable.
City residents might complain about excess density in various neighborhoods as the result of new residences, excessive traffic, or inadequate parking, yet projects involving developments of multiple new “dwelling units” are smoothly approved by the city Planning Commission and City Council, the latter usually unanimously approving projects despite local residents having some real concerns about these projects.
Upcoming proposals will soon add about 940 more “dwelling units” inside the city, and that’s on top of previous (and future possible) development. These, unfortunately, will not make housing more affordable in the city (the market determines those prices), nor will it calm traffic, since even more local vehicles will be added to our area’s roads.
Meanwhile, development in the surrounding counties continues apace, and that’s a problem for the city—the city has no control over what the counties do. Unfortunately, Fredericksburg sits at the crossroads of the counties—if you want to travel between Stafford and Spotsylvania counties (and driving is the only realistic means to do so) you must drive through city streets, unless you want to take your chances with using Interstate 95 (which also slices through the city).
With all the massive growth in the counties, that is a lot of traffic generated in the city. It’s clear from all the traffic, and the universal complaints from both locals and visitors about the traffic, that transportation infrastructure is woefully inadequate given the growth of the area. Excess traffic is the symptom, not the disease—it’s the proof that local growth has been poorly planned.
Many local residents understand that growth here is inevitable. The region’s location between Richmond and D.C., with its comparatively lower housing costs, as well as its many amenities and history of local charm, make it so.
Which makes keeping the region a desirable location for current and future residents a worthy goal.
How best to accomplish this?
Start with smarter growth. Rather than more sprawl exemplified by yet more isolated subdivisions, build walk-able mixed-use communities—a central commercial hub with mid-rise apartment buildings (perhaps five to eight stories) with retail on the first floors to include many of the services a community would need: grocery store, professional offices, shops, and restaurants.
Surround this central core with low-rise garden and walk-up apartments and townhomes, then single family homes. Offer a simple but efficient bus service that would connect residents with the central “downtown” core, so that personal vehicle use is at a minimum, and trips out of the community are relatively infrequent compared to current subdivisions, where access to a vehicle is essential.
Improving the current transportation system for current residents is key—a bus system should be available that is so efficient and low-cost that most residents would prefer to use it rather than drive to go shopping, get a haircut, or go the the movies. Adding yet another lane to a road in the hope that this will improve traffic ignores reality and history—we’ve known for more than a century that another road is simply a “traffic generator.”
We need to avoid being further transformed from a relatively quiet corner into a metropolis seething with yet more traffic and sprawl—which could very possibly lead to a deteriorating quality of life in the area (if we’re not there already). That would bode ill for local residents. It would likely reduce property values and rents—not the best way to make area housing more affordable.
Growth may be inevitable, but in the end it’s how you grow that matters. Cooperation between the city and its surrounding counties, currently inadequate, is essential. Without it all parties will suffer.
Otherwise we’ll be seeing bumper stickers in Fairfax that say “Don’t Fredericksburg Fairfax.”
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Thoughtful.
Mary and Erik Nelson are (as usual) exactly 'on the mark.' As someone who initially attempted to control Spotsylvania growth to 2%, it quickly became apparent that was small thinking. The real approach to a good future is to ask ourselves "What do we want to look like at full growth?" (i.e. If or when every buildable lot is full). If we answer THAT question, then zoning and special use permits become easier decisions. Unplanned opportunities or impediments can be considered in the context of the final 'big picture'.
Simply put: You cannot plot a course unless you know where you are going.
Bob Hagan
Fredericksburg Resident
(Former Spotsylvania County Supervisor & Chairman)