TALKING CROSS TABS - Trump Is Dragging Down Republicans in Virginia According to Latest Commonwealth Poll
But there are clear messages for Democratic candidates, too, in this poll released less than two months before early voting is set to begin.
By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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The Commonwealth Poll released July 16 by the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University showed a Virginia electorate with shifting policy priorities, a declining view of the governor, and strongly negative opinions of the president.
Together, that all amounts to a growing lead for the three Democrats at the top of the ticket in November — Abigail Spanberger, Ghazala Hashmi, and Jay Jones. Each enjoys a commanding lead over their opponents: Spanberger is 12 percentage points better than Winsome Earle-Sears; plus, Hashmi and Jones are both 9 percentage points better than their opponents, John Reid and Jason Miyares, respectively.
Strengthening their hands is the shrinking number of people who declare themselves Undecided. Just 12% of voters in the Governor’s race are undecided; 15% in the Lt. Governor’s race; 13% in the Attorney General’s race.
The top-line numbers also show shifting priorities for voters. Asked what the most important issue was impacting respondents’ vote, the rising cost of living was No. 1 by a wide margin, garnering 26% of the responses. There was a tie for No. 2, with women’s reproductive rights and immigration each attracting 14% of respondents.
These polling numbers carry more punch than earlier numbers because Early Voting begins on September 19 — less than two months away.
“This poll should be a wakeup call,” said L. Douglas Wilder, the 66th governor of Virginia. “Governor Youngkin’s slipping numbers among independents and the overwhelming disapproval of Trump make clear that Virginia voters … want action on the issues that hit hardest: the rising costs of living, threats to women’s rights and immigration policies. The shift from education to economic and personal freedoms shows an engaged electorate.”
As bad as the topline numbers are for Republicans heading into November, however, the cross tabs paint an even bleaker story. The Big Tent that carried Trump to the White House just nine months ago is collapsing, creating an opportunity for Democrats to score big in November.
But there are warning signs for Democrats in the cross tabs, too.
Let’s dig deeper.
The Economy Is Hammering the Republicans
Lest leaders forget, the economy will drive voters to the polls quicker than most any other topic. Smart politicians understand this and drive the point home hard.
It worked for Ronald Reagan in 1980, and Bill Clinton (courtesy of James Carville) in 1992, and the argument can be made it’s what brought Trump back to the White House just nine short months ago.
The crosstabs show the economy is again a major issue.
Asked: “What is the most important issue impacting how you vote?,” the results were clear.
All five regions of Virginia (Northwest, Northern, West, South Central, and Tidewater) selected “Rising cost of living.”
In three of the five regions — Northwest, South Central, and Tidewater — more than 30% of respondents selected “cost of living.” In Northern Virginia 24% of voters selected cost of living, and in the West it was 29%.
The story gets worse when respondents are broken out by family income.
More than half of the most economically distressed families in Virginia — those making between $20,000 and $35,000 per year — point to cost of living as their No. 1 concern.
Even families earning over $150,000 a year are feeling the pinch, with nearly a quarter citing the cost of living as a dominant driving concern.
It’s also important to note that the economy is the one area where the sharp partisan divide disappears. Among Democratic voters, 26.1% named cost of living as their top concern. Among Republicans it was 31.4%. And among independents, it’s 24.1%.
Pain in the grocery store line is felt by every political partisan.
National News Talking Points Aren’t Registering
Questions about the status of American democracy and civility are getting major air time on partisan news channels like CNBC and progressive-oriented news publications.
However, among Virginia voters, concerns about democracy and civility don’t even register as an issue in the gubernatorial election.
The percentage of people listing it as a motivating factor in their decision-making for the upcoming election was 0%.
That is a stunning result given the amount of airtime paid to this subject in Democratic circles.
This suggests that voters in Virginia are not looking for Democrats who stand on “I’m not Donald Trump,” but who have serious thoughts about the issues that are most concerning to them — i.e., the economy (see above).
This creates a delicate dance for the Democratic candidates. The race this fall will be closely followed nationally, as pundits watch to see if the Virginia (and New Jersey) elections offer indicators about the strength of Donald Trump and the tenor of the nation’s electorate.
Money is pouring into Democratic coffers, as Spanberger is well ahead of Sears in the race for dollars. And there is pressure for Spanberger to not just win this election, but to also carve out a winning message that other Democrats can run on 2026.
In Virginia, the economy — not Donald Trump — is that message.
Still … Trump Is Dragging the Republicans Down
While it is true that Youngkin’s approval numbers are down some, people have a far better perception of the governor than they do Donald Trump.
The only exception to this is among Republicans, who give both the governor and the president equal levels of approval. This reflects the party’s proclivity for falling in line behind candidates and office-holders with the R behind their name.
But among most every other group, voters are deeply unhappy with Trump’s presidency.
Even among Democrats, Youngkin is nearly 16 percentage points more popular than Trump.
This puts Republican candidates in a difficult position.
They need to keep the base happy, but the independents and minorities who flocked to Trump in 2024 are showing every sign right now that in 2025 they are pulling away from the president in large numbers.
And that is going to pull votes from Republicans in the general election, if the trend holds.
Apart from Republicans, according to the Commonwealth Poll, the only group that isn’t in Spanberger’s category at the moment is Whites. And even there, the margin is tiny. 43.5% of Whites say they’d support Spanberger if the election were today. 44.4% say they’d vote for Sears.
Were the election today, Blacks would vote for Spanberger over Sears by 63 percentage points. And Spanberger has a 20-percentage point advantage among Hispanics.
Given these numbers, it will be interesting to see if Trump decides to campaign in the Old Dominion for the Republican candidates.
A Battle of Two Virginias
Broken out by region, Spanberger is winning big in the population centers — Northern Virginia and Tidewater, and in South Central Virginia.
The only two places that Sears is winning are the Northwest part of the commonwealth and the Western part of the state. Lots of land, not a lot of votes.
In a race of rural vs. urban, it’s the margins that will decide the race, and the margins right now are tracking all in favor of the Democrats.
So, are the Republicans fighting a losing battle?
No. It’s a long time to November, and a lot of things can happen between now and then.
Issues like the Epstein files, which currently have Republicans fighting among themselves, and the on-again, off-again spectacle of tariffs, are distractions to most voters.
What really matters this year, this poll clearly suggests, is the economy. Should the economy suddenly strengthen, the Republican position strengthens. Should it stagnate or decline, Democrats are poised to run the tables in this election’s three premier races.
That’s what the poll says, anyway. Polls, however, don’t vote.
As ever, turnout will be the determining factor. Expect the races to tighten as we get closer to November.
The question for Republicans at this point, however, would be can they tighten them enough to change what is shaping up to be a Democratic clean sweep at the top of the ticket on Election Day?
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My, oh my. One wonders, when the writer is out in the field, searching diligently for the forest, how often he walks into trees....
"The percentage of people listing it (democracy) as a motivating factor in their decision-making for the upcoming election was 0%.
That is a stunning result given the amount of airtime paid to this subject in Democratic circles.
This suggests that voters in Virginia are not looking for Democrats who stand on “I’m not Donald Trump,” but who have serious thoughts about the issues that are most concerning to them — i.e., the economy (see above)."
Why yes, people are worried about their pocket books.
In any war or upheaval - you can bet your bottom dollar that money was a factor.
It may come wrapped in religion, prejudice, or ideology; but those saints of 1776 we now celebrate were a composite of Southern slaveholders who didn't want their economy managed, landless fortune seekers looking to invade Indigenous spaces, and Yankees aghast that the Crown was installing judges that would actually enforce financial judgements against them. And those who feared the Crown obtaining any money from them to pay for the costs when 10,000s of troops were sent and raised to drive out the French a few years before. So it still came down to money.
And the good folk of the North did not begin fighting to stop slavery, as much as due to fear of loss of control of their trade on the Mississippi, having a hostile nation on their border, or New England factory owners who feared losing monopoly access to Southern cotton.
Money talks.
But that does not mean that people's economic unrest and uncertainty today isn't directly correlated to Republican's systemic attacks on the core tenets of modern American society. They most certainly are. This is a man made crisis. Or rather, party made.
Had a conversation with a builder yesterday. Who asked me to be on the lookout for any jobs that need a general contractor. He is just finishing work on a multimillion dollar project, but has no new jobs in Virginia lined up.
Decent chance he'll be either working at a lower tier, or not working at all in another month. I'd say the economy is his main concern. Had the same thing happen with another builder last month.
I told this gentleman that I would, but I also advised him that I feared that things would get worse before they get better. He asked what I meant?
And I asked him how can a would-be developer price a project if the prices of materials fluctuate on a daily basis, based upon the whims of one erratic, vengeful man, but who is guaranteed to raise that tax on business to pay for his other whims?
How can he count on his workforce, knowing, and as even Republicans are finally admitting, is populated by workers that are working at cut rates - yet who are staying home out of a legitimate fear of deportation - sometimes to other continents, sometimes to places of deliberate torture or deprivation, regardless of whether they are legal or illegal, citizen or non-citizen, criminal or victim?
I see it every day. Have for years. Drywall don't get hung in this state without someone who speaks English as a second language doing it. You know it. I know it.
Roofs don't get put on, trees trimmed, crops picked. If you'd ever had to do any of those things for a living, not just for a summer, or while going to school - but for a living, with your family counting on you, you would understand why.
But do you think no longer having ready access to those workers that are the bedrock of our economy doesn't affect the economy? They are directly affected by Republicans systemic attack on civil liberties, nativism, and prejudice. And we, who have for so long benefitted from their work will suffer as well. With inflation and lack of services.
On and on. When inspector generals, prosecutors, etc. are fired because they did their job, we are already seeing them not doing their job. Do you think laws will be fairly enforced under those conditions? Or will EPA officials decide discretion is the better part of valor as your air's polluted or your water fouled. Hope you're not counting on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to protect you from fraud under these conditions. The wolves are guarding the henhouse. That uncertainty will not only cause harm and death, it will cause uncertainty in financial matters as well.
Social Security not responding, healthcare threatened, research stymied, a Supreme Court ruling thru shadow dockets with little explanation of why decades of precedent are destroyed. Previously independent policy makers threatened or fired. From something as impactful as the Fed, to as little as the President of UVA, or who sits on an opera or museum's board.
In such a irrational and fearful climate, the wonder is not that the economy suffers, but rather that it is still doing so well despite it. Which indications show is likely beginning to show up. It takes a long time to stop a train or an ocean liner. The largest economy in the world is relatable.
But it also takes a long time for it to start back up, once you stop it. Inflation just went up. Deliveries are down in ports. The CBO says SSN will be insolvent in under 8 years. And Medicare will be cut for millions right after the next election. Our best allies and neighbors no longer consider us allies, and they are voting with both their feet and their pocketbooks. Moody's just downrated our astronomical debt as Republicans took on more of it so that they could pass welfare for billionaires. As they impose taxes (tariffs) that disproportionately affect those least able to pay them the hardest.
Years ago, Fareed Zakaria wrote an excellent book called "The Future of Freedom". In it, he noted that our form of democratic republic gained much of it's strength from institutions which were decidedly undemocratic. Counterintuitive as that may sound. As someone who worked inside government for decades, I've seen it in action. Ethical, dedicated people who worked to make things better. Judges, policemen, healthcare professionals, health departments, psychiatric boards. That's your deep state that Republicans attack.
He argued that the reason this lack of democracy allowed good and ethical members to do their duty without feeling the need to succumb to short term whims or vested self interests. This is the "deep state" being demonized. And now destroyed.
To pretend that it does not matter makes about as much sense as worrying that your foundation is cracking on your house at the same time that you are removing half of the dirt underneath it. They are related.
Also seems to me that responsible reporters should be investigating, reporting, and explaining such cause and effect, not pretending they aren't.
Watch that limb......