Election Guide 2025: Governor's Race
This Virginia race is shaping up to be one of the more interesting races in some time. While the candidates are lining up, the factors that will shape this race are in flux.
By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
Overview | Demographics | Key Dates | Voter Information | Related Election Stories — Governor
In the event of errors or omissions, please send a note to the editor.
Overview
There are two truths that define each Virginia gubernatorial election:
Because Virginia’s governor is limited to one term, each gubernatorial election is an opportunity for the two major parties to refine or refresh their messaging and put forward a new vision for where the commonwealth should move.
Because the election occurs the year following a presidential election (New Jersey follows this pattern as well), the race always draws national attention and sometimes draws speculations as to whether Virginia’s next governor will also run for president.
Expect both those trends to be on steroids this year.
This year, there will be a third factor that looms large in the gubernatorial race: Donald Trump — for both the Democratic candidate and the Republican candidate. The former will in opposition to the president’s chaotic leadership style, the latter will run as a supporter of the president and argue Trump represents not chaos but much-needed change.
Both parties’ bases will rally to their candidates’ approach to Trump, but that alone will not be enough to secure residence in the Governor’s Mansion.
Trump is term-limited, too, so it is incumbent upon both candidates for governor this year to find the messaging that will appeal to those who are outside the political parties’ cores.
Who will the two candidate’s be?
Following the presidential election last November, the race for governor looked to be a two-horse match race between Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.
By December, Rep. Bobby Scott (VA-3) began making moves to challenge Spanberger. Scott, who appeals more to the party’s hard progressives was riding a wave of frustration among Democrats with the party’s moderates following the poor showing by Kamala Harris.
However, in recent days, Scott has begun to fade, and Spanberger looks to have clear sailing to the nomination.
Earle-Sears was on a clean track to the nomination until recently. As of early March, she will face a primary challenge from the so-called Trump in Heels, Amanda Chase, and Dave LaRock, a hard-right Republican who has spoken in favor of Musk and DOGE.
Whether Earle-Sears survives this challenge is very much up for debate. As of now, it’s too early to say who the candidates will be.
Expect the Republican primary to be contentious. Expect Spanberger to have a relatively easy ride from here.
What to Watch
Here are the factors the Advance will be watching as we move closer to election day.
Jobless Numbers — Trump is delivering on his promise to drastically cut back on the federal workforce, and this is having a significant impact in both Northern Virginia and in the Norfolk area. The pain isn’t limited to there, however. Richmond is facing fewer federal dollars to distribute, and local governments and nonprofits who depend on those dollars may also end up having to reduce their workforces. High unemployment typically favors the Republican candidates, but not this year. If numbers climb, Republicans will have to answer for the man they put in the White House who is causing the job losses.
Health Insurance — Neither party is known as a reformer in the world of health insurance. However, if Medicare were to go away, or be significantly scaled back, and the Affordable Care Act be rolled back, a significant number of Virginians would be negatively impacted. The Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) lists 1.8 million Virginians enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP as of June 2024, a 28.4% increase from the start of COVID. And 389,568 Virginians in June 2024 were enrolled in health coverage through the ACA exchange. That’s 67% more than in 2020 just prior to the pandemic. A major reduction in these programs could energize voters in November.
Economy — The economy is an issue in every election, but especially this year. Newly imposed tariffs will likely increase consumer prices in the near term. Whether they fall as supply chains and corporations adjust to the new reality remains to be seen. If the tariffs onshore more manufacturing jobs and eventually lead to lower prices, it would be a major victory for the Republicans. If inflation isn’t checked, and joblessness rises, the Democrats are sure to benefit.
Education — The new accountability system will produce a significantly different picture of K12 school performance. Who that benefits most depends on where one is located. This could prove a significant issue, but it’s too early to know how it will play out.
Local Tax Rates — As localities dive into new budgets, there’s a great deal of uncertainty regarding federal funding for things like education, healthcare, and infrastructure. How localities respond will certainly affect people’s feeling about who to elect for governor. But which party gets the advantage? Again, it’s too early to know. But if localities are forced to increase personal property taxes to cover for government shortfalls, it could prove detrimental to Republicans.
Housing — Given the affordability crisis, it’s realistic to expect the next governor will be able to “solve” the problem, but especially in our region and Northern Virginia and the Greater Richmond area voters will be listening to see if either candidate can muster a plan that might actually make a difference. So far, neither party has moved the needle on this problem.
Vision — Glenn Youngkin won the governorship on the back of parents’ frustrations with public education. His push for parents’ rights and deregulation proved a winning combination in 2021. What will be the winning vision in 2025? Currently, none of the people running for governor has articulated a clear message. That will come as we get past the primaries. Having a clear vision, however, will be central to success. Simply running as “I’m not Trump,” or “I am Trump” is unlikely to be enough to pull together the coalitions one needs to win the governorship.
Intangibles — Every successful leader has the ability to attract people to them. Currently, Spanberger is the only person in the field with a demonstrated ability to do this on a large stage. Scott has enjoyed success in his congressional district, but it can be argued that he has not enjoyed the broad support that Spanberger built in her time on Capitol Hill. Earle-Sears has a statewide name, but the role of Lt. Governor is largely ceremonial, and she has yet to be seriously tested. Will one of these candidates develop that magnetism that is impossible to define? But that people know when they see? Time will tell.
Demographics
Virginia’s population is shifting. Since 2014, the percentage of White Virginians has fallen 0.4 percentage points. Meanwhile, the percentage of minority groups has climbed:
Black: +2 percentage points
Asian: +2.5 percentage points
Two or more races: +0.7 percentage points
Hispanic: +0.7 percentage points (Since 2000)
In 2024, Donald Trump made significant gains with both Black and Hispanic voters nationwide. While it helped him nationwide, it did not boost him in Virginia. Here, he lost by nearly 5 percentage points.
But previous results are not necessarily an indication of what’s to come. Especially in the current political climate. The extent to which the candidates can attract minority voters will prove critical in the final outcome.
Key Dates
Primary
June 17, 2025
Election Day
November 4, 2025
For more detailed information
Virginia Department of Elections’ How to Run for Virginia House of Delegates
Voter Information
To register to vote, update your current Virginia voter registration, apply to vote absentee by mail, or view your polling place, election district, absentee ballot status, and voting history, visit the Virginia Department of Elections.
Related Election Stories — Governor’s Race
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