The Virginia Governor's Race Just Got Interesting
By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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Just over a month ago, I sat and listened to former congresswoman and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger deliver the keynote address at the Fredericksburg Martin Luther King Day Breakfast. Titled “The Fierce Urgency of This Moment,” its delivery lacked fierceness, and the message lacked urgency.
Having followed Spanberger on the campaign trail and watched her at multiple public events — including a Q&A she did with the Advance last year — the performance was surprising in its muted tone. Though not an electrifying speaker before large groups, Spanberger has always connected well with her audiences. That explains why she is at her best in small-group settings and one-on-one discussions.
It was one speech on one day, however, and everyone is off from time-to-time.
But it wasn’t just Spanberger who was off. Democrats as a whole were feeling defeated, as Donald Trump took the Oath of Office for the second time on noon that same day.
On the flip side, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears — an unproven candidate with a thin political record — was more than holding her own. In a state where Spanberger was widely seen as a tough, proven, and popular politician with an extensive record of bipartisan success who would coast to victory, she was leading Earle-Sears in early polling, but just barely.
A January 8 poll by Emerson College had Spanberger +1. A June 13 Wason Center poll had Spanberger at a more comfortable +5. And a January 20 poll by Co/Efficient, a partisan Republican pollster, had the race a dead heat.
How times have changed. Less than two months removed from January 20, everything has changed.
A February 25 poll by Roanoke College has Spanberger with a 15-point lead over Earle-Sears. It also shows 32% of voters undecided. But that doesn’t take the luster off the yawning gap the former congresswoman seems to have opened up.
And Earle-Sears, who looked to have a clear path to the nomination, suddenly finds herself in a primary battle with Amanda Chase, the so-called “Trump in heels,” and Dave LaRock, who’s positioned himself as a rock-ribbed conservative and a supporter of Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency.
Meanwhile, Spanberger, who looked to be picking up a competitor in the primary back in December, appears to now have a clean ride to the nomination, with Rep. Bobby Scott hinting he’s not going to run.
What’s changed?
In a word — Trump.
The chaos unleashed by the president his first couple months in office has surpassed what even some MAGA Republicans had hoped for. Mass firings, a rush of executive orders, exposing citizens’ private data to Elon Musk and his “tech bros,” voting with Russia and North Korea and Belarus against our closest allies at the United Nations.
And then on Friday, there was Trump’s and Vice President J.D. Vance’s disgraceful behavior in the White House toward Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy. A performance so astonishing even the Wall Street Journal was disgusted:
Mr. Trump does not want to be the President who abandoned Ukraine to Vladimir Putin with all the bloodshed and damage to U.S. interests that would result. Mr. Vance won’t like to run for President in such a world either.
None of this is playing well with everyday Virginians, and especially those who live in our region. With a significant percentage of federal workers and contractors, nonprofits that are losing federal funds for no other reason than being on the wrong side of the DEI divide, and pulling the plug on education dollars that are supporting students who need a hand um, the coalition that put Trump over the top nationally — but couldn’t make him competitive in Virginia (he lost by nearly 5 points) — is fracturing.
On Friday, Youngkin threw jet fuel on the fire by signing an Executive Order telling state law enforcement to assist Immigration Control and Enforcement, and to get local law enforcement to help.
In short, just as Democrats overplayed their wins in 2020 and 2022, Republicans are overplaying their 2024 win in ways that are showing signs of backfiring spectacularly.
What is clear is that a race that looked to be settled is now increasingly unsettled, and that turbulence has flipped this race on its head in just over five weeks.
Whether Democrat or Republican, local voters can be assured of this — the turbulence won’t settle between now and November, and some of the forces creating the bumpy ride for the candidates are totally outside either’s control.
What is controllable are our actions locally.
Collectively, our region has some significant decisions in the year ahead. Fredericksburg faces challenging budgets, troubled schools, and a homeless population that may well rise owing to actions in Spotsylvania County come April; Stafford must decide on Buc-ees, and figure out how to handle what looks to be an exceptionally challenging budget season; and Spotsylvania continues to wrestle with a faction of detractors hell-bent on undermining the district’s new, and impressive, school superintendent, as well as growing problems around traffic.
And everyone continues to wrestle with the severe lack of affordable housing, surging inflation, and a growing number of people and families struggling simply to make ends meet and put food on the table.
The race for the governor’s mansion matters, and it demands our attention. A race that has already flip-flopped twice in two months is sure to flip-flop again over the coming eight months.
It’s more important, however, that we focus on those things we can control, without allowing the distractions and chaos that are roiling the race for governor to roil our lives.
Perhaps that’s what Spanberger was doing on January 20. Rather than giving in to despair or ramping up the rage, she was displaying the calm, steady hand of leadership that helped her navigate the rocky waters of Washington for six years while winning three exceptionally close races in Congressional District 7.
We’ll know in roughly eight months.
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I have observed Abigail Spanberger for several years in her role as a Congressperson and I have been impressed with her steady leadership and ability to work in as bipartisan a manner as possible given these challenging times. She is a patriot, a mother, a servant leader and an intelligent person who will govern our Commonwealth with common sense.
All around us and within our communities we face the chaos of abrupt job loss, uncertainty as to the future of healthcare, Social Security and our children's education. We need a governor who can provide a bulwark against the worst of what is happening and what is to come. I will be supporting Abigail Spanberger as the candidate best suited to fill that role.
The shortage of 500 workers at the new VA facility in Spotsylvania isn’t going to help the Republicans win votes in our area.