Election Guide 2025: House District 64
HD 64 is limited to Stafford County. Updated March 2, 2025
By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
Updated July 4, 2025
In the event of errors or omissions, please send a note to the editor.
Key Dates
Election Day
November 4, 2025
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Voter Information
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Overview
Paul Milde is in his first term as a member of the House of Delegates in the General Assembly, having won HD 64 in November 2023. In 2024 he was the chief patron of 11 bills, three of which were focused on celebrations of life. Of the remaining eight, all were killed but HB1385, which deals with disclosure of student information to the superintendent when a student is charged with an offense (currently in House) and HB 1257, which deals with coverage for the diminished value of personal property.
His competitor will be Stacey Annie Carroll (D). The district is designated as Leans Republican by VPAP. In 2024, however, Donald Trump carried the district by just 2 percentage points, and Derrick Anderson carried the district over Eugene Vindman by just 3 percentage points. In the race for U.S. Senate, Democrat Tim Kaine bested Republican Hung Cao by 0.1 percentage points.
Presidential Vote in 2024:
Donald Trump: 50%
Kamala Harris: 48%
Will Trump be a factor in this race? Yes, but how remains to be seen.
Will Milde Hew to Trump? Trump is on a hot streak at the moment, which could energize Republicans. But immigration raids are souring voters on the president, and the impacts of the Big, Beautiful Law could become a significant issue if people begin to feel the cuts that are coming. If that happens, Democrats get a leg up.
An Abigail Bump? Turnout is always everything in elections. That will certainly be the case in this one. For Carroll to be competitive, Democrats will have to turn out in large numbers. Spanberger has proven that she can do this in the 7th Congressional District. If she can do it state-wide, and Carroll catches the wave, this race could be close.
Demographics
According to VPAP, HD 64’s racial makeup is 58.8% white. Blacks make up 19% of the electorate, and Hispanics 14.3%.
All HD 64 voters live in Stafford.
Related Election Stories — HD 64
Local Obituaries
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