FROM THE EDITOR - Gubernatorial Debate Preview
Tonight's debate has all the makings of a rout. But as UCLA showed last weekend, football games (and debates) don't always go as planned.
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By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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Sports analogies can be helpful when thinking about debates. Here’s one for tonight’s gubernatorial showdown between Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and former 3-time congressional representative Abigail Spanberger (D) — UCLA vs. Penn State.
For those not in-the-know, this past Saturday the Bruins of UCLA pulled off one of the biggest upsets in recent college football memory. The team went into the game 0-4, had just fired its head coach, and took the field in Pasadena with an interim head coach, interim defensive coordinator, and interim offensive coordinator.
On the other side waited Penn State, ranked No. 7 in the country whose only loss of the year was to No. 3 Oregon — on the road, in overtime. No team likes a loss, but that type of loss wouldn’t have kept Penn State out of the National Championship discussion.
David vs. Goliath.
Ford vs. Ferrari.
The United States Navy vs. tiny boats in the Caribbean.
The odds against UCLA’s winning were that long. But the Bruins had quarterback Nico Iamaleava, and a coaching staff with their backs against the wall and nothing to lose, so they let Iamaleava loose.
The Bruins caught the Nittany Lions flatfooted, ran out to be big lead; survived a furious Penn State rally, then closed it out with highlight-reel plays by their star quarterback.
Final score — UCLA 42, Penn State 37 (and openly talking about finding a new coach).
Long Shot of Long Shots
By most any objective measure, Spanberger comes into tonight’s debate wearing the Blue and White of Penn State (she’s a University of Virginia grad, but stick with us on the analogy). She has every advantage. A polling lead that has consistently showed her 6 to 7 points ahead. A well-articulated platform. The best campaign team money can buy. Extensive experience winning tight races. And a reputation for moderation and working across the aisle. How could she lose?
Earle-Sears, by contrast, is wearing the Blue and Gold of UCLA and facing near-impossible odds. She has trailed in every poll since January. Her platform is thin. And her campaign has been dogged by missteps and shakeups. Her political experience pales compared to Spanberger’s. And she has struggled with how to define herself relative to Trump and the MAGA movement. How could she win?
All things being equal, only the riskiest of bettors would lay down money on Earle-Sears to win the debate (or the election).
But all things aren’t equal at the moment.
The federal government shutdown is 9 Days in and Northern Virginia in particular is starting to feel the pain.
Pending cuts to Medicaid coupled with reductions in SNAP are rattling people and hospitals and food banks.
And then … there’s Jay Jones, Democratic candidate for attorney general whose campaign has gone off the rail in recent days with revelations of his being caught going 116 in a 70 mph zone, and horrendous text messages making light of political violence.
How the candidates respond to these big-ticket items will be what the chattering class pays attention to.
But what about voters in the area?
The Advance spoke with a range of people this morning across the political spectrum to see what they will be watching for this evening. Here’s what they’re highlighting.
Keeping National Toxicity at Bay
Among most of the people the Advance spoke with, concerns about the overall negative feel of not just this campaign, but of politics in general, is very much front of mind.
Will the candidates be able to demonstrate that they’re willing and able to “bridge the divide,” said one person concerned that the fighting and intentional demonizing of the opposition daily on display in the White House is taking hold in Virginia and in our region.
Another appealed to the “Virginia Way,” an approach to legislating and governing that places people over party, and sound policy over partisanship.
The Jay Jones question, this person said, will be a test of whether either candidate can embrace the Virginia Way and convince voters that the citizens of the commonwealth are more important than party.
Specifics
The voters we spoke with are less interested in how the two candidates view Trump and more interested in how they plan to work for Virginians in changing times.
Several voters said they wanted more details as to how the two candidates will deal with the issues of federal cuts not only to government jobs, but to education and healthcare.
Others said they want to hear how the two candidates will protect voting rights for citizens, and how the next governor will address the affordable housing crisis that has dogged the state since COVID.
People or Professional Politicians
One voter made clear that they’ll be watching to see which candidate is able to speak to issues in a way that connects with the reality of the problems people are facing. Their concern is that the candidates will be locked into professional talking points written by out-of-state hired guns designed to protect the candidate from missteps.
“They are supposed to talk to citizens, not professional politicians,” this person said. And they have to speak to the big issues outside of Northern Virginia.
Undercurrents of this idea were obvious in other people’s statements.
How does Spanberger handle the Jones situation, said one voter, and can Earle-Sears talk about anything other than trans kids?
It’s also notable that a couple of individuals commented that they will not be watching at all, frustrated with both the quality of the Republican candidate, and the policies of the Democratic Party.
Still a “Local” Election
Virginia’s governor’s race always gains outside national attention because it and New Jersey are the only two games on in the political world on off-off-year Election Nights.
As a result, it’s becoming increasingly common to see Virginia elections driven by people whose aspirations include the White House.
What the Advance is hearing among our readers, however, is that the governor’s race is still a “local” election. The next governor’s attention must be on the people of Virginia, and not on what is happening in Washington, D.C.,
The candidate who can make that play will have a leg up with voters who are increasingly concerned about the economic issues that are confronting the Old Dominion state.
If there’s an upset to be had, this is Earle-Sears’ one and only opportunity to pull it off.
And if there’s an election to be lost, it’s Spanberger’s, who will walk onto the stage tonight holding all the cards.
The Winning Moment
Every debate has its moments.
If and/or when Spanberger slips, will Earle-Sears be able to capitalize? And will she be able to do so in a way that appeals to voters who have grown increasingly tired of the nonstop toxic political speech that is daily on the airwaves in both candidates’ political commercials?
More important, will she be able to stave off the counterpunches that she will surely receive over the course of the evening?
She’ll have to have both go her way if she is to make up ground in this race and have a chance on Election Day.
And if Spanberger doesn’t slip, will she be able to convince undecided voters that she really does understand their problems and has them front and center?
Spanberger is great at connecting to people in smaller settings. If she can bring that connection to the estimated 4 million people who will be watching this evening, she’ll remain the odds-on favorite to win in November.
Neither candidate can take this evening for granted. And at some moment tonight, a winning moment will emerge.
Upsets like UCLA beating Penn State don’t happen very often. That’s what makes such games memorable.
But they do occur.
The question tonight is if and/or when such a moment does occur, can the underdog seize the day, and then hold on to the end? Or does this become yet one more lopsided game that the fan bases care about, but is largely forgotten about or ignored by everyone else come the next morning?
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Debates don’t move the needle. If they did, Kamala Harris would be president.
There is another factor that we should keep in mind and that is the reality that debating a person whose version of reality is skewed by conspiracy theories and a platform that is founded on lies is tough. Harkening back to the disastrous performance of Joe Biden (thanks to age, ill health, and so on), part of the issue was that his opponent was not debating, he was fire hosing half truths, distortions and outright lies. If WES follows that playbook, AS will have her work cut out for her tonight. I hope her team has prepped her for this possibility.