FROM THE EDITOR: Local Dems Learned Critical Lessons in Loses
Winners often miss the most important lessons elections offer. Nilofer Garza and Forrest Miller lost this month, but grasp well the lessons November teaches if Dems' are to build on their victories.
By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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In the days after the recent election, Stephen Farnsworth explained the significant swings for Abigail Spanberger in Stafford and Spotsylvania counties in terms of demographic shifts. Both counties, he argued have experienced two waves. The first was people “leaving urban areas in search of more conservative and expansive suburban communities.”
The second, more-recent wave, was made up of “people relocating in search of more affordable housing located close to major highways and mass transit.”
That demographic shift, combined with an unpopular president and economic anxiety carried a lot of Virginia Democrats into office from the Governor’s Mansion to low-level local offices.
However, as the specter of a contentious race for the U.S. House moves to center stage, and Mark Warner prepares to defend his seat in the U.S. Senate, the question being asked is this — Was November a fluke?
Several local Republican leaders have dismissed the recent election, arguing that Republicans stayed home because they’re satisfied with the state of progress at the national level.
Perhaps, but if this argument is valid, it portends bad news for the party in 2026.
Over the past 35 years, Republicans have been dominant at the state level across the country because they developed a well-structured ground game that sold their voters on the importance of local and state elections, and staying engaged when the national races aren’t on the ballot.
In Spotsylvania, that message may well be getting through to Democrats.
Down, Not Out
Much attention has been paid to the Democrats who won in Stafford and Spotsylvania, but the losing candidates in Spotsylvania have garnered a deep grasp of what is happening in the county.
Nilofer Garza ran for the Board of Supervisors in the Berkeley District, long a conservative stronghold and home to those seeking a rural lifestyle.
In a three-way race with incumbent Kevin Marshall and winner David Goosman, Garza performed exceedingly well, running on an unabashedly progressivist platform.
“I’m a pragmatic leftist,” she told the Advance in a phone interview. “I ran very hard on public schools and on workers.”
She noted that when people have children in public schools, they begin to understand concerns around teacher pay and generally will support those efforts. It’s one of the reasons, she said, “I got as many votes as I did.”
She also tapped into “a lot of discontent among neo-conservatives about wage suppression and the concentration of wealth,” Garza told the Advance. “When I said I was the only candidate on the ballot endorsed by a union,” it played well with “90% of the people I spoke to.”
How well did she do?
Though she finished third, she was within some 300 hundred votes of incumbent Kevin Marshall and prevented Goosman from winning a majority.
More impressively, the further north one went in the Berkeley District, the better she did.
The district has four precincts. From the furthest south tracking north, they are: Partlow, Berkeley, John J. Wright, and Massaponax.
She polled poorly in Partlow (11%) and Berkeley (14%), but grabbed 30.8% in John J. Wright and 32.6% in Massaponax where she finished second to Goosman by less than 65 votes.
Garza believes she would have done better had she “trusted her instincts more.”
“I was on the ground a lot,” knocking about 4,000 doors. She realized quickly that Goosman was the person she had to beat.
“I should have been more aggressive in challenging his positions,” she said.
She noted voters in Berkeley had a “lot of … misgivings about the Kalahari project — in particular the performance agreement,” which Goosman supported.
Second-guessing aside about the past campaign, Garza is rock-solid about the future of Democrats in Spotsylvania.
“This trend [toward gaining ground in Spotsylvania] will continue if we continue our efforts,” she told the Advance. And that begins with steering clear of toxic polarization and leaning in to listening to voters.
When “people meet me and talk to me,” she said, they don’t see an independent endorsed by Democrats with liberal policy ideas but someone who has a lot in common with them.
“When I tell people I work at Geico,” she said, “that resonates with people.”
She also talked about moving politics beyond raising money to win races.
She said that it’s important to “get people to volunteer and be seen doing things that benefit people,” be it being on the ground dealing with hunger or volunteering to support events that build up the community.
“We are headed in the right direction for this.”
Garza is staying involved despite her loss. She made the decision even before the election was held. “Back in September, I made the decision to start recruiting candidates for state and local level races.”
She will also stay involved with the local Democratic committee. “They put so much into the local races. They supported local candidates,” she said. And that makes a difference.
Further, she celebrated the importance of the mentorship she had from more-experienced candidates. “I got substantial help from Nicole Cole and Carol Medawar,” she said, about how to handle each step of the campaign.
It’s Not Always about Winning
Forrest Miller was projected to have nary a chance in his race to unseat Republican incumbent Phil Scott in the race for House District 63. And if one goes only by the numbers on election day, he didn’t.
But not all 11-point loses are the same.
“We were projected to lose by 20” percentage points, Miller wrote in a letter to the Advance, but “we hit our win number with 16,000 votes.”
There were other bright spots for Miller.
“Our opponent outspent us almost two-to-one,” he wrote, “yet small-dollar individual donations under $100 reached 904 contributions in our campaign to his 63, meaning the people are motivated to choose their representation rather than the corporate donors.”
But perhaps the most interesting point Miller tapped was that since Election Day, more than 10,000 people have visited his campaign website.
“These numbers tell a story: people are paying attention, people care, and people want a government that represents their principles, that underneath political policy, we are all a caring, compassionate people full of great strength.”
Both Miller’s and Garza’s reading of the just-past election is a hopeful one because it is grounded in something more important than politics.
It is grounded in learning to listen to voters and allowing voters to get to know candidates. When that happens, the party labels fade away.
For Garza, it happened around issues of education and wages — regardless of how someone aligns politically, the vast majority agree that education matters and wages that allow people to live a comfortable life matter.
Miller explained it this way.
My team, volunteers, donors, family, and friends poured themselves into this race—every conversation, every early morning, every late night. We built something real together. We proved that people in District 63 care deeply about public education, economic stability, healthcare access, safe neighborhoods and most importantly, ethical and transparent representation in our government. You showed that hope is not a fragile thing; it flourishes when people choose to invest in one another.
It Will Grow … So Long As Lessons Aren’t Forgotten
Garza and Miller aren’t the only ones who understand this.
As a journalist I’ve been following Abigail Spanberger’s rise beginning with her first run for Congress. What has always stood out about her is not just her willingness, but her desire, to really speak with and understand the people that she meets on the campaign trail.
It’s not just about influencing a vote. For her it’s about hearing constituents, even when she knows those voters are aligned against her.
Her 15-point victory margin was due to many factors, but surely a long history of understanding the responsibilities that come with elected office begin and end with hearing constituents and understanding what they want from their government must stand near the top of the list.
When one approaches elections this way, loses aren’t the end, but rather a positive step forward in building a stronger future.
Miller told the Advance via phone that something he has come to appreciate in the days since the election is that “the change we’re seeking to make doesn’t [always] require us to win, it just requires us to run. You motivate a community through a campaign, and that motivates the community to do something. You have to keep going no matter what.”
Politics is not about a campaign. It’s not even about power. It’s about understanding the importance of hearing voters and responding to those needs with clear-eyed visions and a commitment to do what is right.
It’s about leadership and humility.
There was a time when the Republicans understood this, and it is what led them to dominate state-level and national politics for the better part of the past 35 years.
In November, the Virginia Republicans largely forgot those lessons, and Democrats in Virginia showed that they were the ones willing to listen and lean in to working to strengthen communities.
If they hold on to those lessons and build upon them, Election 2025 will not be a fluke. It will mark a long-needed turn in Democratic focus.
Garza and Miller are two Democrats who understand that and will work to carry those lessons forward in Spotsylvania.
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