Phillip Scott Has a Challenger; Forrest Miller Faces a Steep Climb ...
... but the race for HD 63 will be unlike any in recent memory. All Virginia races are shaping up as referenda on the Trump Administration. If true, things could get interesting in Orange and Spotsy.
By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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Phillip Scott currently represents HD 63 and has served in the General Assembly since 2022. In 2021 he carried HD 88 with 57.3% of the vote. Following redistricting, Scott ran in HD 63 as an unopposed candidate. He carried 83.6% of the vote, while write-in candidates received 16.4%
In the 2025 legislative session, Scott filed 16 bills for which he was the chief patron (the total does not include bills that commend or celebrate people). Eleven of these bills failed to advance. Four others — HB 2406; HB 2407, which was incorporated into HB 2749; HB 2460; and HB 2598 have been approved by the governor.
Until very recently, Scott was the only person running in HD 63. That changed when Forrest Miller, a retired military warrant officer and former Republican turned Democrat, announced his intention to run.
In an interview with the Advance on April 21, Miller spoke of the importance of public service and its role in our communities. “Public service is the foundation that our way of life is built on,” he said.
That belief fuels the issues he will promote on the campaign trail under the acronym R.I.S.E. — Responsibility, Infrastructure, Social Services, and Economy.
VPAP currently rates HD 63 as Strong Republican. In 2024, the district went for Trump in the presidential election and Hung Cao in the U.S. Senate race by big margins.
Presidential Vote in 2024:
Donald Trump: 58.5%
Kamala Harris: 39.9%
U.S. Senate Vote in 2024:
Tim Kaine: 42.1%
Hung Cao: 57.7%
Two counties — parts of Orange and Spotsylvania — make up HD 63.
About 75% of the voters in HD 63 come from Spotsylvania. If Miller is to have a chance, he will need to perform above average in the Spotsylvania precincts that lean Democratic, according to VPAP — Chancellor Elementary, Battlefield Elementary, Smith Station Elementary, and Courthouse Road Elementary — and overperform in the six precincts that lean Republican — Wilderness Elementary, Fire Rescue 7, Ni River Middle School, Riverbend High School, Public Safety, and Chancellor High School.
Orange County is more solidly Republican, with no precincts having a Democratic lean.
It Ain’t Over, Til It’s Over
By these numbers, Scott is the favorite to win and return to the General Assembly. But as the old sport’s euphemism goes, in this race we may be able to “throw out the record book.”
The state of the economy will loom large in this election. The significant changes that Trump has introduced, including firing federal employees — many of whom live in Spotsylvania — elevating tariffs, and slashing education funding could potentially affect the outcome of this race if economic indicators continue to go South.
Economies are complex, however, and it’s too early right now to know how people are going to feel in November. Should Trump’s tactics lead to growth, Scott is well positioned to retake the seat.
Should the economy really begin to struggle, however, and local schools and public services are showing the effects of cuts to government funds, this race could quickly move from noncompetitive to one to watch.
Religion, Constitution May Also Loom Large
Religion and the Constitution are important to both candidates, but they take very different approaches to how they understand those terms.
Scott makes a point of emphasizing his evangelical Christian convictions. The three words he’s chosen to define himself by on his campaign website — Christian, Constitutional, Conservative — put the religious issue front and center.
Miller also stresses his religious convictions. “I consider myself a Chirstian,” he told the Advance, but he sees “this as a personal question.” As such, he stresses that his role would be to “be your representative to government.” That includes “living by the First Amendment and the Constitution.”
This tension between how people feel about the role of religion in public service, and how to read the Constitution, is a long-standing one in the United States.
Again, Trump’s actions are driving how people think about these two. The question for this race will be, do people feel that Trump is driving the issues of religion and how to read the Constitution too much to the fringes, thus causing a backlash toward more-moderate views, which would benefit Miller? Or do his actions grow the base of people who adhere to Trump’s position?
Again, it’s too early to say. A lot of politics is still to be played between now and November.
The one sure thing? These national issues will have a significant role in how the HD 63 race ends up.
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I met Forrest Miller and am very impressed with his understanding and suggestions for improvement in local issues. Take a look.