FROM THE EDITOR: The Virginia Election Is Flashing Blue, but How Brightly?
The Diamond has in recent years been ahead of national political trends. That is looking to be the case this year. Here are the races to watch, and what they mean.
By Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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As Election Day nears, it’s tempting to look back in time for insights into how the races are shaping up. But those who look to the past for insights into what voters are thinking should remember Wall Street’s warning — past performance is no guarantee of future success.
Perhaps no part of Virginia better demonstrates this than the Diamond — Caroline, Fredericksburg, King George, Spotsylvania, and Stafford. It’s from this area that the rising tide of voter frustration that would become the MAGA movement announced itself to the country in 2014, when early MAGA acolyte Dave Brat upset Eric Cantor — then U.S. House Majority Leader.
Diamond voters also exposed the weakness of MAGA voters when in 2018, 2020, and 2022 moderate Abigail Spanberger won three razor-thin races against MAGA proponents.
Less than a month before the election, it appears again that the Diamond is offering some insights into what the major headlines will be come November 5 when the election results are in.
Governor’s Race
Democrat Abigail Spanberger has enjoyed a comfortable lead in most every poll since January, as Republican Winsome Earle-Sears has yet to be able to muster any sort of threat.
Her dominance is evident in two counties in the Diamond that are among the fastest growing in Virginia and are urbanizing rapidly — Stafford and Spotsylvania.
In Stafford County, the statewide advantage Spanberger is enjoying in the polls appears to be showing up in early voting.
As of October 10, there have been more than twice as many votes cast in early voting than in 2021 — the last time Virginia elected a new governor.
Howard Rudat is chair of the Democratic Committee in Stafford County, and he tells the Advance that as of October 10, “our data indicates that strong and leaning Democrat voters hold a 15% lead over strong and leaning Republican voters.”
This gap reflects Stafford County’s continuing shift from Red to Blue. As this shift intensifies, Democrats have been performing better. In her last congressional run, Spanberger lost the county by less than 200 votes.
Early voting in Spotsylvania County, the second-most populous in the Diamond and rapidly urbanizing, is also running double 2021 numbers. The Advance was not able to find similar turnout data for Spotsylvania, but like Stafford it is a county that has seen Democrats, in particular Spanberger, make inroads in recent years.
House Races
If Spanberger is driving voter turnout, that could also show-up in races for the Virginia House, which is currently in Democratic hands by a mere three seats.
Of the five House races that the Advance is watching, one is highly unlikely to see control flip parties. HD 23 is currently held by Democrat Candi King and rated Strong Democrat by VPAP. King enjoys a massive funding advantage.
One race, HD 63 is currently held by Republican Phil Scott and is rated Strong Republican, but he faces a Democratic opponent, Forrest Miller, who has matched Scott dollar for dollar in fundraising. Still, Scott remains the favorite. But if Miller pulls a surprise on election night, it will owe much to Spanberger driving voter turnout.
The remaining three races are HD 64 between Republican incumbent Paul Milde and Democratic candidate Stacey Carroll; HD 65 between Democratic incumbent Joshua Cole and Republican candidate Sean Steinway; and HD 66 between Republican incumbent Bobby Orrock and Democratic candidate Nicole Cole.
Of the three, HD 65, which is rated Competitive, is likely to return to Democratic control. Cole holds a more-than three-to-one advantage in fundraising, how been showering the airwaves with anti-Steinway ads, and in their one debate Steinway stumbled early and often as Cole demonstrated a much stronger grasp of policy.
The HD 64 and HD 66 races, however, could prove interesting.
Stacey Carroll holds a roughly $30,000 advantage over Paul Milde in HD 63. Milde’s major push in the legislature last session was to lower red tape for developers. How well that record plays with voters will likely decide this election. Rapid population growth and the rise of data centers in the county is creating friction and could cause problems for Milde.
Nicole Cole has a more-than two-to-one advantage over Bobby Orrock in the HD 66 race, but a Cole victory would still be considered a major upset. Orrock is the longest-serving member of the House, and an unusual Republican in that he is pro-public schools, having enjoyed a career as a public school teacher. Cole has been putting in the work, and her ads are showing up regularly on the airwaves. Still, Orrock has deep name recognition, something that is difficult to overcome in House elections.
The Advance will be watching the HD 66 race closely on Election Night. If Cole pulls the upset, it will be due to her hard work as well as Spanberger’s ability to drive Democratic voters in red districts.
The Wild Card
If Winsome Earle-Sears gave voters no substantive reason to vote for her in the debate with Spanberger, Jay Jones gave Virginians every reason to abandon him down the stretch.
His 2022 text messages recently surfaced that talked about shooting then-House Speaker Todd Gilbert and his children were beyond disgusting. It has also come to light in 2022 he was arrested for reckless driving when he was clocked doing 116 mph in a 70 mph zone.
Given Spanberger’s lead in the polls, and Earle-Sears’ poor debate performance, it’s unlikely Jones’ self-inflicted wounds will hurt Spanberger. She has separated herself from Jones and leaving him to the voters.
Where Jones could hurt Democrats is down ballot. If Spanberger motivated voters to turn out for early voting, Jones may dampen that enthusiasm here in the closing days of the race.
If he does, expect it to hurt House races like 63, 65, and 66, not Spanberger.
And that matters.
If Democrats can hold or pick-up 63, 65, and 66, it becomes difficult for Republicans to win back the House. That would give Democrats the governor’s office, the House, and the Senate.
It would situate Virginia as a hedge against the Trump Administration, and make it a state that will be watched closely in the run-up to the 2028 presidential election.
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